"Ferguson Effect"?

[Nephrology]

As discussed by the director of the FBI and referenced in this article :

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...ng-james-comey

"FBI director James Comey conceded on Monday that he had little evidence to support his theory that a recent increase in crime was caused by heightened scrutiny of the police, as the White House appeared to distance itself from his remarks.

Addressing police chiefs at a conference in Chicago, Comey said he could not be certain that the so-called “Ferguson effect”, following unrest in the Missouri city after the fatal police shooting of an unarmed black 18-year-old last year, had led to a retreat by officers, but said this was “common sense”.

“The question is, are these kinds of things changing police behavior around the country?” said Comey. “The honest answer is I don’t know for sure whether that’s the case … but I do have a strong sense.”

Barack Obama’s press secretary, however, said at a White House briefing on Monday that available evidence “does not support the notion that law enforcement officers around the country are shying away from fulfilling their responsibilities”.

Law enforcement leaders were “on the contrary” reporting that officers were “dedicated public servants, who on a daily basis are putting their lives on the line to serve and protect the communities that they’re assigned to”, said Josh Earnest."

So, with that as the background... what do you all think? Is this a real phenomenon? Curious to hear what you all as LEOs have to say. Thanks again for the work you all do - looking forward to your comments.

[gtmtnbiker98]

I can tell you one thing, we aren't working any harder. Those discretionary stops are a lot more scarce.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

1. Depending on your world view, you will be predisposed to see it as real or not. Cops do as does the FBI head. Well known black activists have fits that it is not true. The latter is a double edged sword as how do explain it without discussing failings in your population. That is done by saying that social forces and discrimination have removed free will from them and they are unable to act in a different manner.

2. We really don't have quality and unbiased research into the effect. The discontinuity in the murder rates seem to indicate some sharp new causal event.

3. The truth will be combo of factors and interactions. However, I would think that there is a Ferguson effect. I've heard that police recruiting has taken a massive hit (if it is true).

It will take some more time. I do think the FBI head is headed for directing security for a big company fairly soon. DOJ can't accept his viewpoint.

[JHC]

Do you (the collective) think this effect is more pronounced in urban centers than rural?

[Glenn E. Meyer]

Is urban vs. rural confounded by race? That's a factor to be considered.

[jnc36rcpd]

I would think it depends on the perceived level of support for law enforcement in the community rather than a strictly urban/rural or racial breakdown.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

That's hard to disentangle. Anyway, good night. Going to watch Supergirl as Jeb Bush says she is 'hot'. Dirty old man!

[JHC]

I would think it depends on the perceived level of support for law enforcement in the community rather than a strictly urban/rural or racial breakdown.

Is there a major urban area that is for real supportive of LE when some feces hits the fan? I think you are correct about "support" being key.

[TGS]

mmmmm.

A cop I knew from a neighboring town back home said his PD pretty much stopped working proactively, directly related to the national issues with police. They had a very, very active narc program....the entire department was basically one big narc squad. They didn't even do traffic, to put it into perspective.

[GardoneVT]

Addressing police chiefs at a conference in Chicago, Comey said he could not be certain that the so-called “Ferguson effect”, following unrest in the Missouri city after the fatal police shooting of an unarmed black 18-year-old last year, had led to a retreat by officers, but said this was “common sense”.

Therein lies the problem. Sounds like the conference basically went like this:

"So, bosses. Do you feel your superiors and your own short sighted, arrogant, and piss poor PC management philosophies are responsible for the low people on the totem pole not being proactive? No?

Yeah, sounds good enough for me too. We are bosses ,anyways. There is no problem, for if there was one it would be someone else's fault anyways. Meeting adjourned.