Sorry about the delay. Day job got busy last week, and I had a full weekend, including mountain biking Raystown Lake, PA and the Patriot Match on Sunday in Lewistown, PA. Whew!
First, my statement was an estimate and I completely am fine with being corrected....IF it is possible to be corrected. The problem with getting a definitive answer is, one of the very issues that started this Police Commission, transparency. A number of newspapers and other concerned organizations have outstanding FOIA requests with Fairfax County Police, many outstanding since February 2015. Also the Police Commission Use of Force Subcommittee has outstanding requests for this very information, which, so far, Fairfax Police have stonewalled. Here is a link to a set of FOIA answers coming from Fairfax Police. While it is understanding that some information must be redacted or withheld, I find it extremely lacking to the point of obstruction.
https://drive.google.com/folderview?...Uk&usp=sharing I say this because we can't get a definitive answer.
I have lived in Fairfax County since 1987 and read the local papers weekly, if not daily when I can, and I watch the crime listings. While I have not compiled a list, my own estimate is at least two dozen errors with no-Knock warrants. I define an error as one of two things:
1) The Police simply got the address wrong;
2) The suspect(s) or contraband under the warrant were never there...in other words the Detectives/Investigators got it wrong, at least two times from anonymous tips that turned out to be someone falsely reporting the tip, and other times the occupant looked like the suspect, but was not.
Now, to make this worse: These are the incidents where the papers/media found out about the entry. There are certainly others that Fairfax Police have not disclosed under the FOIA...and may someday, but so far have not done so.
Now here are the numbers I found:
There are an average of 70,000 criminal incidents logged by Fairfax Police per year.
Over the five year period of 2009-2013 (2014 is not yet available online), that is about 350,000 criminal incidents.
Over the same five year period there were 2,289 Uses of Force, which include Use of Force in SWAT/No-Knocks, but does NOT include those No-Knocks where no force was used or the occupants were compliant.
Outside groups (Virginia Citizens for Police Accountability, Crime Watch RT, etc.) estimate that No-Knocks constituted about 10% of the 2,289, or 229, again, over five years. They also estimate that there were about twice as many No-Knocks over that same period including the ones where no use of force was needed. So, estimated total No-Knocks is estimated at about 460 over five years. Of those, these outside groups estimate the number of errors, based on what we know publicly, and projected out is about 5% or 23.
Now, it is true there is a lot of numerical extrapolation here and this could be off, but based on the size of the jurisdiction and the number of criminal incidents, this seems like a reasonable number to me. This is a tiny percentage (something like .06%) of the overall number of incidents.
But the point here is that innocent people are being endangered and terrorized because of bad information, and, at least in two cases, were shot and killed by accident. When combined with the lack of muzzle discipline, lack of finger discipline, sub-par training, and more concern about catching bad guys that putting innocent people in danger, that is where I have a problem with this.
Someone posted an internet meme on Facebook that summarizes this:
Firefighters get called to a Fire and enter a dwelling when there is a fire;
EMT's get called to a house and enter a dwelling when someone has a medical emergency;
We will call Law Enforcement when we need you.
If you are going to enter a home fully armed, entering at night, then they need to get it right 100% of the time.
Cody