Originally Posted by
MDS
I'm pretty sure the EU will bail Greece out again. The problem is deep, and this Greece/Germany dance is just the most visible movements in it. But the foundation of the eurozone - shared currency without shared fiscal policy - provides perverse incentives to slower-growing EU members. Germany wasn't complaining when "the EU periphery" was gobbling up all those German exports, were they? Now their neighbors' overspending is coming home to roost, and Greece is just the first of a looming flock.
So now, in parallel with the Greek drama, Germany is pushing for more shared fiscal controls among the EU members. Because however you reorganize the EU, if you superimpose a single currency over several independent states, you're asking for trouble. Not surprisingly, many EU members are resisting such a blow to their sovereignty. So Germany counter-offers with the whole "core vs. periphery" concept of a reimagined eurozone. Like that's not insulting. The Greek thing is interesting, but I don't think the EU will let Greece default until they have some kind of framework for dealing with lower-growth EU members - whether that's shared fiscal controls for the EU, or some sort of differentiated membership status to minimize the impact to which the loose fiscal policy of one member can expose the other members.
I don't think it'll happen this year, but eventually Greece may or may not end up like Venezuela. I think that will depend more on a German calculus than a Greek one.