Two ND's in a year

[GardoneVT]

A friend of mine works in IT at a big GSE. If they make 3 mistakes that impact operations, they're gone. It's a great way to freeze all infrastructure in time, and make everyone scared to make any changes, even if it's good for the organization.

Or worse, the other consequence-folks screw up and then become motivated to lie about it. Good luck learning from a mistake that's not even acknowledged.

[JV_]

There's very little room to lie because of the monitoring systems in place. Every key click is recorded, so is your display.

[GardoneVT]

There's very little room to lie because of the monitoring systems in place. Every key click is recorded, so is your display.

In your specific instance and in many others, true. I was referring to negligent discharges specifically though.Its a safe wager most of the DerpTube folks making vids have at least as many as Sootch if not more. Not long ago someone here freeze-framed a "Range Time" vid where the channel uploader clearly had his finger on the trigger before engaging the target.

[TGS]

Or worse, the other consequence-folks screw up and then become motivated to lie about it. Good luck learning from a mistake that's not even acknowledged.

Absolutely.

Root-cause analysis is lacking in most industries/communities. The result is people getting punished instead of problems getting fixed, and the vicious cycle you mention.

[JohnO]

If you handle weapons enough the law of averages will dictate that sooner or later it will happen.

I would not consider that a factually correct statement. I understand the premise but in actuality statistics don't work that way.

Example: If it is a proven fact that for every ten thousand times a gun is handled there is One Negligent Discharge does not mean that sometime between now and your 10,000th time you will have a ND. The statistical distribution of outcomes among society does not reflect the distribution of outcomes associated with an individual.

It bothers me when I hear people say it is only a matter of time before I, you or they have X happen because statistics say so.

[Trooper224]

I would not consider that a factually correct statement. I understand the premise but in actuality statistics don't work that way.

Example: If it is a proven fact that for every ten thousand times a gun is handled there is One Negligent Discharge does not mean that sometime between now and your 10,000th time you will have a ND. The statistical distribution of outcomes among society does not reflect the distribution of outcomes associated with an individual.

It bothers me when I hear people say it is only a matter of time before I, you or they have X happen because statistics say so.

Okay

[JodyH]

Ive heard the same thing about riding a motorcycle and wrecks being inevitable.
Bullshit.

[Wheeler]

I believe Cooper was credited with saying "there are two types of gun owners, those that have had and ND and those that are going to have an ND." I never thought I'd have one until I did. That's why we follow the 4 Rules.

[Haraise]

Ive heard the same thing about riding a motorcycle and wrecks being inevitable.
Bullshit.

There are always statistical outliers, and ways to minimize risk... but it's still a good rule of thumb.

Every time I think of riding again, I feel where I got third degree burns after hitting a patch of nearly invisible oil...

[Malamute]

Ive heard the same thing about riding a motorcycle and wrecks being inevitable.
Bullshit.

I had several near misses, and only a couple low speed slides on the pavement. I stopped before anything else happened. I rode a fair bit, 20-25K/year for several years, cross country, and lots of exploring around the state I lived in. I had several friends get killed or seriously hurt riding. I dont know if its different peoples reaction time, awareness, luck, or all of the above.

And yes, I've had a couple ND's. Nothing died and nothing expensive was hit.