Thugs, Adaptation,& Concealed Carry.

[GardoneVT]

In the opinion of the folks in the know here, do you forsee the kittenheads adapting to their intended victims having CCW pistols? Right now many thugs appear to get caught with POS pocket guns , which are sufficient when one's intended target isn't armed. Thus, will the next generation of criminals who come up in a 'shall issue' world start bringing AKs and body armor on carjackings and stickups to 'keep an advantage' versus shotguns and pistols, or is that dynamic unlikely in the years to come?

The inspiration for the topic came from a recent review of Argentina's economic woes, and how street criminals down there routinely used long guns , ambush tactics AND numbers when people started reacting to increasing crime with more security measures.

[1slow]

I would expect thugs to try to gear up. The more murderous ones may just shoot first and rob the bodies.
Awareness will become even more important.

[Chuck Haggard]

Argentina has serious issues, including that some of the bad guys are on the .gov payroll or otherwise supported by them.

[ssb]

I would think that for the average street robber, the advantages of handguns (namely portability and concealability) would continue to outweigh those afforded by long guns. Growing up, I regularly hung out with shitheads (I freely admit that I didn't make the best life choices). Concealability was universally the determining factor in what guns they chose to arm themselves with. For example, I knew one guy who'd carry one of those fold-up .22MAG derringers in his change pocket. For his purposes he felt it was more than sufficient. In my experience, none of these people were "gun people." I think the only time I ever saw a holster was when I watched a former Sheriff's deputy turned landlord sell a revolver to a 19 year-old in somebody's laundry room (shoulder holster). These people didn't labor over ammunition choices, nor did they particularly care about gun selection (availability and price being the deciding factors). For reference, the area we were in had/has (according to Tom Givens' stats) one of the highest percentages of HCP holders in the state.

In that same area, last year there was a group of young men robbing people at gunpoint in a local park. That generated a heavy police response which culminated in a foot pursuit, one which ended with what was apparently a most excellent tackle by a police officer on my parents' front lawn. My father, who was watching all of this happen, recalled that they pulled a small automatic out of his jacket pocket. A series of driveway robberies, one of which ended in the shooting of an old neighbor of mine (he survived, thankfully), also involved handguns. Several years ago, a family friend's computer store was also robbed -- handguns, once again. Ditto for a drycleaner later that same year. Again, this is in a part of the country where guns are very common and, further, an area where CCW is also common (something like 10% of the city's population had a CCW permit, last I looked -- one of the highest rates in the state). I actually can't recall a crime in which long guns were involved, and I feel like that would stick out because this is an area with fairly low crime to begin with (though it's a very short hop from Memphis and there are justifiable concerns about some of the unpleasantness spilling outwards).

I could see a vest being worn, and I'm sure there's plenty of anecdotal evidence of LEOs encountering criminals wearing armor. Do I see a bunch of 16 year-old Memphians bringing along an AK or two to their next robbery? Unless they've got a specific target in mind (such as a dealer), somehow I doubt that. Different/"better" tactics (such as shooting the victim first) I could also see.

[Hambo]

For BGs to up their game, CCW holders would first have to up theirs enough to be a threat. People on this forum are not the norm in CCW. Most are like a friend of mine who recently said he wants to upgrade from his DB9. I was hoping he'd at least go to something the size of a PPS and CARRY IT instead of leaving it in his truck 90% of the time. His response was that on body carry would be too much of a paradigm shift for him and that he wants a higher dollar/quality micro 9 for the rare occasions he stuffs it in a pocket.

[HCM]

The popularity of Body Armor for thugs has waxed and waned over the years. It was quite popular in the 90's and became a fashion necessity for gangsters / gangster rappers. In response, many states and the federal government passed laws restricting felons from owning / possessing / purchasing body armor so it is less common now but you will still see serious offenders ( robbery crews/ mid level dope dealers etc ). Its also pretty popular with the Mexican cartels. The federal government passed its version (18 USC 931) back in 2002.

[HCM]

For BGs to up their game, CCW holders would first have to up theirs enough to be a threat. People on this forum are not the norm in CCW. Most are like a friend of mine who recently said he wants to upgrade from his DB9. I was hoping he'd at least go to something the size of a PPS and CARRY IT instead of leaving it in his truck 90% of the time. His response was that on body carry would be too much of a paradigm shift for him and that he wants a higher dollar/quality micro 9 for the rare occasions he stuffs it in a pocket.

This ^^^^^^

IME most CHL holders here in Texas carry pocket guns and/of use their CCW as a car gun.

[NETim]

I strongly suspect that many of the more ardent CCW'ers are much like me, that is, we don't do stupid things with stupid people. We live a quiet, low key life. This naturally lowers our odds for encountering "bad guys" significantly IMHO. Being sound asleep most nights by 10 keeps me out of a lot of trouble.

So, if what I believe is true, is true, bad guys will continue to muscle much easier marks as the harder targets simply aren't as available.

[Beat Trash]

The "thugs" in my city are not carrying POS pocket guns any more. That ended about 10 years ago. In the "Thug World", 9mm's are the norm in my city. Long guns used to be rare. When one was recovered, everyone talked about it in court the next day. Now, not so much... The long guns, AK's SKS's and AR's are usually reserved by the Thugs for when they are really serious.

Body armor was also a rare thing a few years ago. Now, it's showing up more and more. Still not a common thing, but it's being seen more often.

The Thug world is definitely adapting. When it comes to street robberies, what I am seeing in my city is a change in tactics more so than a change in equipment. The "lone gunman" is being replaced by a group, usually three. Instead of being aligned shoulder to shoulder like an El Presidente drill, they split and approach from three different angles. Picture three armed men approaching from 2, 10, and 6 o'clock, all armed and all approaching at the same time.

There have been several topics lately about what constitutes an appropriate CCW gun to protect yourself. One discusses the difference between a "carry gun" and a "combat gun". I offer that if the gun is being carried for defense, then there is no difference between the two.

No CCW gun is appropriate if you leave your situational awareness at home that day. You don't have to go through life paranoid of being attacked. But you should excersize some level of awareness of your surroundings as you go about your life.

[Chuck Haggard]

We see a lot of armor locally, but it is almost always in a closet and found during a raid.

I can recall three cases in the past 20 or so years where we caught bad guys wearing vests, one was some dudes in a car, the guy in the back seat wearing a vest and he had an Uzi wrapped up in a towel, they were headed to go do a drive-by when our guys stopped them. Another where the bad guys was trying a home invasion wearing a stolen level IIIa LE entry vest and packing a pistol grip Mossberg (lady looked out the side window and saw bad guy posted up on her front door knocking, so she didn't answer it), and lastly a higher up the food chain drug dealer who was car stopped for warrants and was wearing one due to knowing other drug dealer dude was currently after him.

That sort of pattern is pretty common in my observation and talking to coppers in other areas of the US.