Chicago Crime Rate Drops As CHL's Surge

[RoyGBiv]

There are also accusations of Rahm and his Chief stroking the crime data to suit their political agenda (giving credit to better policing) that may also prove to be a major factor in this crime drop... But I thought the idea that 2A is playing a major role in Chicago was worth its own thread.

Chicago crime rate drops as concealed carry applications surge
City sees fewer homicides, robberies, burglaries, car thefts as Illinois residents take arms

Since Illinois started granting concealed carry permits this year, the number of robberies that have led to arrests in Chicago has declined 20 percent from last year, according to police department statistics. Reports of burglary and motor vehicle theft are down 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively. In the first quarter, the city’s homicide rate was at a 56-year low.

[Bigguy]

So what you're saying is that when good guys are able to protect themselves from bad guys, the crime rate drops?

That can't be right. That's not his majesty, the lord of Bloombergistan, says.

[tremiles]

I wouldn't be so quick to hang my hat on the correlation/causation argument. Rahm is up for reelection in February so reporting a reduction in violent crime does him more good than bad in relation to legalization of CCW.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

[SecondsCount]

I wouldn't be so quick to hang my hat on the correlation/causation argument. Rahm is up for reelection in February so reporting a reduction in violent crime does him more good than bad in relation to legalization of CCW.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

You could be right but homicide at a 56 year low is pretty hard to deny or fudge.

[tremiles]

You could be right but homicide at a 56 year low is pretty hard to deny or fudge.

What happens after the election year overtime dries up for the CPD Gang units after the election?

My point is this, there's more going on in the crime statistics than the tiny number of Chicago residents who've actually been issued permits. If you say CCW is causal, that when the statistics change, the anti gunners can argue for increased regulation.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

[SpyderMan2k4]

My friend and I just had a Facebook discussion on this. The consensus was that while correlation doesn't necessarily equal causation, due to Chicago's especially high crime rates and strict gun control, it is hard to overlook. That, and it is worth noting that fewer restrictions haven't led to an increase in crime as they would have us believe.

[TAZ]

You could be right but homicide at a 56 year low is pretty hard to deny or fudge.

Really?! When was the last time you took a statistics class? Even if you're not willing to bold face lie like Rahm and his ilk are predisposed to you can cook the numbers however you like with some creative definitions.

Im pretty sure Obama has stats to support a better economy and better access to health care. In sure he can even prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that if you like your plan and doctor you can keep them.

[GardoneVT]

Without straying into legally grey territory, ill just say that many gun owning , otherwise law abiding folk in Chicago long ago decided they werent gonna wait for Springfield to get their kitten together on the matter. Add in political manipulation of the crime stats by Chicago's ethics challenged government, and its anyones guess how legal CCW affects the state of crime in Chicago stat wise .

Not to venture off topic, but id offer that most of the Windy Citys worst and repeat offenders wear suits and collect a payroll check from the Chicago Treasurers Office. That kind of crook isnt affected by legal carry.

[RevolverRob]

My friend and I just had a Facebook discussion on this. The consensus was that while correlation doesn't necessarily equal causation, due to Chicago's especially high crime rates and strict gun control, it is hard to overlook. That, and it is worth noting that fewer restrictions haven't led to an increase in crime as they would have us believe.

It's actually, almost certainly, completely irrelevant to the causal mechanism underlying decreased crime rates. First these numbers are older than the number of permits that have been released. Folks have been getting permits, only since February. The number of concealed carry involved incidents in the city of Chicago is less than 10. And the report for permits is: 28,552 requested (not necessarily all issued). Population of Chicago (proper) is 2.715 million. That is approximately 1% of the population affecting 20% crime rate reduction? No - freaking - way.

Decreases in crime rates here are almost certainly tied to:

1) Cooking of the books.
2) Increased police presence due to impending Mayorial election campaigns.
3) Chicago just had a record cold winter. Do you think criminals like to work in the cold? Most of these guys have family someplace warmer and further south. I keep saying this, I bet if you went and asked the cops why the crime rates were down from July-July when there was 7 months of the coldest winter on record, they'd say something like, "Because SomeDude wasn't here causing crime, that's why."

As for the fewer restrictions haven't led to increased crime - That is a fallacious argument as well, because you'd need accurate crime and CCW reporting to determine what is going on.

This is pure pipe-dream speculation on the part of concealed carriers. Don't get me wrong, I want concealed carry. I want an armed populace. But for the most part, crime doesn't affect the average concealed carrier and the average concealed carrier doesn't affect crime. Crime occurs most often between two or more known felons, how can concealed carry affect crime between two gang members, for instance? It doesn't. Can we be victims? Yes. Should you have the right to protect yourself? Yes. Could being armed affect crime stats? Yes. But it won't affect the most common violent crime stats which is agg. assault and murder most often occurring between two folks with rap sheets already.

-Rob

[pablo]

You could be right but homicide at a 56 year low is pretty hard to deny or fudge.

No it's not. Judicious application of the UCR's "same criminal episode" can turn multiple murders into a reported single offense. Another way is to classify homicides as "unexplained deaths" and reclassify them at a later date, usually after UCR has tabulated their number for the previous year.

I really like the part about robberies leading to arrest have dropped 20%. Another way of saying that is clearance rate on robbery offense by arrest of the offender has dropped 20%. I think the latter is a much better way of justifying concealed carry.