Originally Posted by
Sensei
NYC has become a giant roadblock to a quick, seasonal resolution in the US. By quick I mean it was very possible that we could see a peak in new cases in roughly 4 weeks followed by a gradual decline over 4-8 weeks to the point where social distances could be relaxed in certain regions. That would have meant a 2-3 month curve predicated on a little luck from seasonal variation and extreme social isolation. Of course, the virus would likely return in the Winter, but at least our mitigation strategies would be strengthened by then.
Unfortunately, NYC is not on board with this program and is still half-assing the necessary social distancing to allow a quick seasonal resolution. Making matters worse, the region has become a virtual shipping center for infection around the country. Every hour this continues the likelihood of a quick, 2-3 month return toward some semblance of normalcy goes down.
Thus, I think the real danger (and irony) of this virus is its variable clinical course and relatively low mortality. This has caused us to avoid and delay acting on the difficult Constitutional and societal questions regarding the liabilities of an open, heterogeneous society in the face of extreme danger that would be forced upon us if this was SAR-CoV-1 or MERS (both have roughly 20% case fatality rate).