https://avherald.com/img/china_easte...u_220321_1.jpg
https://avherald.com/h?article=4f64be2f&opt=0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDDiB1dOGgs
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That’s a sickening video. I’m no commercial pilot, but if the “dive” video is authentic, that was a terrifying last few seconds for the poor souls on board.
No visible smoke I could see; some massive mechanical failure as a bomb would cause breakup at altitude? Or a suicide dive like the Egypt Air flight years back?
We might not ever know…
flight radar data indicates it went from 29,000 feet to ~8,000 feet in about 1 minute, briefly started gaining altitude, and then nose dived again.
read that this 737-800 was only seven years old, so catastrophic breakup due to airframe fatigue is probably an unlikely cause.
Without knowing anything about the cause of this accident, about 85% of all aircraft accidents involve pilot error.
The aircraft is the video is headed down like a lawn dart. I can't tell whether it is just the fuselage or whether the wings and tail are still attached?
I’m no accident investigation wizard, but I do turn jet fuel into noise for a living.
In the video from what I can and can’t see the jet don’t appear to be “apart” in the fall. No signs of trailing debris, smoke or fuel vapors. And the descent angle is pretty extreme for something in an uncontrolled descent. If catastrophic airframe failure was the cause the plane would most likely be tumbling with a trail of debris, smoke and/or fuel vapors behind it.
Honestly my first thought was the Egypt Air flight.
30,000 FPM rate of descent is incredible. The rapid decrease in VS towards the end with an indicated rate of + 10,000 FPM before the final plunge back to -30,000 FPM looks a lot like the plunge Egypt Air took as the two pilots fought each other. One trying to crash the other trying to save the plane.
I was thinking the same. The cabin must have been hellish.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Rangemaster
I am way out of my lane here, but I do recall decades ago the triple jet crash in France (L1011?DC10?) that was the result of explosive decompression (faulty hatch and/or not secured) resulting in loss of controls. Not sure why I remember this, but apparently towards the end of the dive, some aerodynamic force actually flattened out the dive.Quote:
Originally Posted by 0ddl0t
But again-and I am by no means an expert-the dive is just a nose over from 30,000-ugly.
I hope the Chinese are forthcoming, but maybe not. Also, that kind of impact may have destroyed even the “black boxes”…
Edit to add: wouldn’t that descent rate screw up the controls and/or damage them at some point where they couldn’t respond? Or break trying to pull out?
We’ll see what the FDR and CVR recorded.
Maybe. They’ll probably be state secrets.
Aren't Boeing obliged to investigate alongside any state accident investigation?Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephanie B
The 737 Max debacle did enough damage, they'll want to show this was not a problem with the plane. I think there are a lot of 737-800s in service. If it's a problem with the plane and they ground them just as commercial aviation is getting back on it's feet after COVID it'll be a shit storm.
I would also ask if anyone powerful or influential was on board.
This is what I was thinking..with Ukraine and all other hell popping off (India firing missile into Pakistan)...Quote:
Originally Posted by Trigger
Not sure if they are required by law or not, but they are requested by the NTSB to take part in the technical investigation. In china who knows…Quote:
Originally Posted by hiro
I’ve read several plausible ideas knowing how the mindset works over there.
Lets wait for the CVR and DFDR data. It’s a -800 so it’s wired up pretty well with sensors.
The US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) will participate in the investigation of the crash of a China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737-800.
“The NTSB has appointed a senior air safety investigator as a US accredited representative to the investigation of the March 21, 2022, crash of a China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737-800 near Wuzhou, China,” the US body said on 21 March. “Representatives from Boeing, CFM International and the Federal Aviation Administration will serve as technical advisers.”
From flightglobal.com/safety
A friend sent me this:
Attachment 86370
Attachment 86371
Where are our aero engineers? Look at the wing pieces between 1:30 and 1:45 in this video. There are circular "cuts" in the aluminum. Is that how aluminum looks after it burns? It doesn't appear to be a place where there are seams to fail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK6V1REUb2o
I've seen a few burned cars in my time. At the resolution of the video, I'm not troubled by it. It will be obvious whether it was cut/burned/oxidized/thermally effected to even a lay person at hands-on distance. With western investigators involved, I'm sure competent professionals will see it.
One thing a lot of people don't realize is that aluminum actually participates in the fire if it's hot enough. It doesn't just get all charred and ashy, it goes up in smoke and simply isn't there anymore.
Sad news on this one and I cannot speculate on what happened.Quote:
Originally Posted by GJM
#1 - These modern commercial aircraft are designed to have very low drag in cruise configuration. AKA they are slippery so they get very good "mileage" on the fuel they burn.
Yes, basic stability would state these aircraft want to return to trim BUT because they will accelerate so quickly with extreme nose low attitudes, if the crew doesn't actively recover then it might be too late to do anything about it.
A 737-800 will stall just like your Cessna and will be a non-event until the recovery. If the crew does not recover quickly, the airspeed will build and you will require a good amount of G to pull out of the dive. When we stall 737s the risk is not something going wrong during the stall, even a deep stall, but the recovery is where we over-G (and can over stress things, even when staying under the G limit). I am trying to remember but a nominal good recovery was like 1.8 - 2.0 G. Our 737 pilots can sound off but I assume/hope they are practicing departure, cruise, and go-around stall recoveries. Should be a fun ride in a Level D. In real life, not fun. I don't know if a stall was what started this event.
#3 - It has dual-flight control computers. It is NOT fly-by-wire. I am curious about an FCC failure and will try to research. I will say the 737 is the last of the cable/pulley big commercial aircraft. You can muscle it if you had to with 2 pilots splitting duties. This would not be fun but I don't think #3 was an issue for this event.
Looks like they found either the FDC or CVR
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...ue-2022-03-23/
That was my thought.Quote:
Originally Posted by Trigger
If I was an investigator I would be doing a background investigation on the people and finding out what I could. Were they on their way to a meeting, going to sign papers, due to inherit ABC, sat on a board, influenced what policies, had the ability to sway votes on XYZ. Power, and losing or gaining it is a serious motivation, and people will commit any number of` atrocities to achieve their objectives.
Flight data recorder found.
—————-
Firefighters taking part in the search found the flight data recorder on a mountain slope about 40 meters (130 feet) from the point of impact and 1.5 meters (5 feet) underground, state media said. Experts confirmed it was the second black box. The impact of the crash created a 20-meter- (65-foot-) deep pit in the side of the mountain and scattered debris widely.
The cockpit voice recorder, also an orange cylinder, was found two days later on Wednesday. It has been sent to a Beijing lab for examination and analysis, and the flight data recorder was also being sent to the Chinese capital for decoding.
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/27/10890...lack-box-found
There’s 13 pages of discussion over at Pprune.
I can imagine being in a dark enough place to do harm to myself or to some person who caused me grief, but, I do not possess sufficient imagination to even contemplate taking >100 innocent souls with me when I take myself out. If there is a hell, that guy is certainly there now.
There are entire journals on suicidal behavior. Determining who has that tendency is a horror show for prediction. You do have pre-action utterances. Do you take them seriously, do you mandate therapy? The problem is that job loss if you go to therapy prevents folks from doing that.
There are some warning signs you can find online.