Are firearm murders a significant statistic?

[BaiHu]

http://www.conservativecommune.com/2012/08/perspective-are-firearm-murders-a-significant-statistic/

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[G60]

It may seem callous, but not really, no.

Put in perspective by the CDC estimate that 70,000 people still die each year in alcohol-related deaths, yet anyone who would seriously call for prohibition again would get laughed at.

It's not as big a deal as people make it out to be.

[NETim]

It may seem callous, but not really, no.

Put in perspective by the CDC estimate that 70,000 people still die each year in alcohol-related deaths, yet anyone who would seriously call for prohibition again would get laughed at.

It's not as big a deal as people make it out to be.

One of my favorite questions to ask rabid anti's is: Where's your outrage over all the alcohol related deaths in this country?

[peterb]

If you want to look at it as a public health issue, then we certainly have bigger problems. Heart disease, for one. But humans aren't wired that way.

Every month vehicle accidents kill roughly the same number of people who died on 9/11. We respond differently....

[Chuck Haggard]

I would venture to guess that french fries and zero exercise kill far more people than alcohol.

[bdcheung]

Ok, I took a look at the raw data (http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/homicide/weapons.cfm) (which the BJS has updated to include 2005) and I don't think the linked article tells the whole story.

While the total number of crimes by firearm has decreased over the last 30 years, the percentage of homicides committed by firearms is increasing. In other words, of all homicides committed, those that are committed with firearms is increasing.

I took the data and made this chart, which shows that the proportion of homicides committed with a firearm is increasing:
956

[BaiHu]

Ok, I took a look at the raw data (http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/homicide/weapons.cfm) (which the BJS has updated to include 2005) and I don't think the linked article tells the whole story.

While the total number of crimes by firearm has decreased over the last 30 years, the percentage of homicides committed by firearms is increasing. In other words, of all homicides committed, those that are committed with firearms is increasing.

I took the data and made this chart, which shows that the proportion of homicides committed with a firearm is increasing:
956

I think you should look at this article. I meant to post this earlier, but forgot. Your post reminded me of this, so thanks.

http://www.conservativecommune.com/2012/08/perspective-are-firearm-murders-a-significant-statistic/

If you don't have time to read the whole article, here's the graph:

http://i739.photobucket.com/albums/xx38/djdemarco/Pistol%20Forum/Ushomicidesbyweaponsvg_.png

[bdcheung]

I read the article and wrote my post to illustrate a side of the BJS data that Bruce McQuain ignored: that of all homicides committed, the share of homicides committed by firearm is increasing.

[BaiHu]

I read the article and wrote my post to illustrate a side of the BJS data that Bruce McQuain ignored: that of all homicides committed, the share of homicides committed by firearm is increasing.

LMAO! Brain fart. Completely ignore my previous post, I totally didn't even look at this as my original post-LOL! I thought I should post that link, but didn't realize I even started this thread and with that link/chart :o

It's been a lil' bit of a crazy week and I'm 3 days away from a much needed vacation :D

[bdcheung]

LMAO! Brain fart. Completely ignore my previous post, I totally didn't even look at this as my original post-LOL! I thought I should post that link, but didn't realize I even started this thread and with that link/chart :o

It's been a lil' bit of a crazy week and I'm 3 days away from a much needed vacation :D

:D

[MikeO]

Comparing our 9,000 to the UK's 40 or Canada's 200 is what drives some folks bonkers, eh?

Back in 2010 I think El Paso (pop 600,000+) had 5 and Juarez (pop 1,000,000+) had 3000, sumthin like that. Gun control works, except when it doesn't.

[overton]

Firearm murders say nothing because they are only a small portion of the whole violent crime rate. And this rate is higher in GB than in the USA.

[Crawls]

I read the article and wrote my post to illustrate a side of the BJS data that Bruce McQuain ignored: that of all homicides committed, the share of homicides committed by firearm is increasing.

I'm missing the point of your analysis. "Proportion of homicides committed by firearm" is a rather meaningless metric when used on its own. It's also a metric that is wide open for misinterpretation. Both total homicides and homicides by handgun/firearms are down since a peak in the early 90s -- and that's a good thing. You seem to hint that the author purposely left some of the facts out. Forgive me because I don't have a copy of Excel handy, but could you please reformat the blue trendline to display the R2 value? I bet it shows that you analysis has some issues and would help explain why the author came to a different conclusion.

CJ

[Nik the Greek]

Comparing our 9,000 to the UK's 40 or Canada's 200 is what drives some folks bonkers, eh?


I expect so. I wonder how our crime statistics compare regarding beatings and stabbings, on a per capita basis.

Something that's been bothering me about gunshot statistics: Are those stats gathered strictly in reference to criminal acts? Are defensive shootings rolled into those numbers? Again, in comparison to countries where firearms are forbidden, I have a feeling that our stats on shootings are actually ridiculously low in comparison on a per capita basis, especially given the legality of owning firearms.

[Slavex]

I'd like to know that too. How many murders? From my understanding homicides includes all death by firearms be it police shootings, self defense, suicide or murder. I'd also like to see of the murders, how many are criminal on criminal vs on innocent persons.

[bdcheung]

I'm missing the point of your analysis. "Proportion of homicides committed by firearm" is a rather meaningless metric when used on its own.

That's your opinion. The point of my analysis is to illustrate that while the total number of homicides by firearm is decreasing, it's not dropping as quickly as the total number of homicides. Let's take an extreme example: there are 10 homicides per year by firearm. GREAT! That would be an amazing number. But if those 10 firearm-related homicides comprised 100% of all homicides, can we still rejoice in the number?


Forgive me because I don't have a copy of Excel handy, but could you please reformat the blue trendline to display the R2 value?

I don't have the workbook with me now but will do this tonight.

[Dave J]

Let's take an extreme example: there are 10 homicides per year by firearm. GREAT! That would be an amazing number. But if those 10 firearm-related homicides comprised 100% of all homicides, can we still rejoice in the number?


If you're a homicide victim, does it really make a difference what implement was used in the crime?

"Daddy's gone sweetie, but at least they didn't shoot him."

[bdcheung]

If you're a homicide victim, does it really make a difference what implement was used in the crime?

"Daddy's gone sweetie, but at least they didn't shoot him."

To us? No.

To everyone else? Yes.

[MikeO]

The violent crime rate in the UK is high. It's the highest in the EU, about 4 times ours.

Their homicide rate (which does not include suicide) is about one third of ours though (about 1.5 v 5 per 100K). More violence over there, less of it fatal. Less violence here, more of it fatal.

So, when guns are outlawed and only outlaws have guns (or as close to it as you're gonna get), they are still 3 times less likely to be killed, and 45 times less likely to be killed by anybody w a gun.

If all of their gun homicides were innocent victims, we would need about 98% of ours to be bad guys for it to even out. Justified homicide in the USA runs about 700 a year, about 400 for cops, 300 for civilians, about 8%. So we still need about 90% to be crooks killing crooks. Some places, we are close.

Suicide? Similar overall rates, but we have 35 times more (per capita) by gun. They have about 100 per year, we have 18,000.

As Archie Bunker said, would it make you feel better if they all jumped out windows? Which is pretty much what happened in Canada after their new gun registration plan was implemented. The decline in shootings was offset by a rise in jumps in one study. OTOH, another study 4 yrs later disputed that.

[Failure2Stop]

However, the UK had been disarming its population since WWI, and is an island, so the number of guns in private hands is much lower, and getting guns illegally into the UK takes a lot more effort than places with large unguarded land borders. It's still an apples to oranges comparison.

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[MikeO]

Cities you are more likely to be killed in than gun crazy El Paso TX: New York, DC, Chicago, LA, London, Dublin, Belfast, Edinborough, Amsterdam, Lisbon, and Moscow.

[LOKNLOD]

However, the UK had been disarming its population since WWI, and is an island, so the number of guns in private hands is much lower, and getting guns illegally into the UK takes a lot more effort than places with large unguarded land borders. It's still an apples to oranges comparison.


Or Japan, that antis love to point out as having no guns and no gun crimes, where they've been subject to a culture of oppressive disarmament since feudal times. When they make comparisons of US to Japan based on the presence or absence of guns, rather than the massive differences the cultures, they're missing the boat entirely.

ETA: Ironic posting that with a Musashi quote in the sig line?

[BaiHu]

However, the UK had been disarming its population since WWI, and is an island, so the number of guns in private hands is much lower, and getting guns illegally into the UK takes a lot more effort than places with large unguarded land borders. It's still an apples to oranges comparison.

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This is the number 1 point I bring up to my UK/Euro friends.

Lastly, I love your Tapatalk line.

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[overton]

In Japan the organized crime HAS guns. Look at a yakuza funeral - bulging suits everehere. Police accepts them to cull down little criminals.

[TCinVA]

However, the UK had been disarming its population since WWI, and is an island, so the number of guns in private hands is much lower, and getting guns illegally into the UK takes a lot more effort than places with large unguarded land borders. It's still an apples to oranges comparison.

Typos brought to you via Tapatalk and autocorrect.

...whereas we found out one of our government agencies was actually arming criminals with free reign to cross our borders. So....