Hurricane Season 2021

[RJ]

...and here we go.

Just a warm up storm to start us off here in Florida. Currently T.S. Elsa is North of Jamaica, headed NW at 14.

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Path predicted to cross from the Gulf into the state around Tampa, possibly just north. Of course the track doesn't show the extent of T.S. force winds, which can extend for dozens and dozens of miles.

I'm sitting at the tip of that red arrow. We are in between houses; our new place doesn't close until mid month. We're on the 4th floor of a sturdy hotel. No backup generator, and we may or may not lose power. I've discussed things with Mrs. RJ and we are all set with our plan:

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The storm is at 60 mph sustained, which is not great, but below Hurricane force (74+). So we expect some wind and damage locally, maybe flooding in low-lying areas, but nothing bad, hopefully.

[Rex G]

Y’all be careful, over there on the east side of the Gulf.

Watch out for falling tree branches; that is what got one of my close friends, during Alicia, in 1983, crushing their car. It doesn’t take a Cat 5 storm to cause old oak trees to shed some huge branches.

[Chuck Whitlock]

If you're going to bail instead of hunker down, I've got a spare bedroom here in Corpus. Just saying.

Y'all be safe.

[OlongJohnson]

Put the car on jack stands, at least. A guy I work with did that for all his hot rods and they did just fine in Harvey on their stilts.

[revchuck38]

I'm hoping for a relatively light season this year. We still haven't recovered from Laura and Delta.

Need to check over the generator and get some fresh gas for it. Plus the chain saw. And lay in a bunch of water and canned stuff, we burned through what we had last year.

[Hambo]

Y’all be careful, over there on the east side of the Gulf.

Point of Florida order: he's on the West Coast. The Gulf is the end of the world as far as we're concerned.

Good luck over there, RJ. I'm sitting over here hoping they get the forecast track right, because I've done nothing but cut the grass today.

[Tensaw]

I'm hoping for a relatively light season this year. We still haven't recovered from Laura and Delta.

I have a sneaking suspicion that this will *not* be a light season. Sounds goofy, but the air has been too thick too early this year...

[Joe in PNG]

On a happy note, the folks got the roof redone last summer, and by a roofer Dad has known personally for a long time.
I can't remember if the lanai was re-screened or not- if so, it should hold and if not, it was time for a replacement.

[Rex G]

Point of Florida order: he's on the West Coast. The Gulf is the end of the world as far as we're concerned.



Yes, west coast of Florida, but east side of the Gulf of Mexico. ;) RJ is on the blue-water/white sand side of the Gulf, whereas we are on the brown-water/brown-sand side, in SE Texas. :)

[farscott]

We just pushed out by at least one week a trip to Dunedin due to this storm. Hope all is well for RJ and all.

[Cory]

The projections for this one don't seem too bad for me. I'm in citrus county. It's been pushed further out for time, and it doesn't seem to be strengthening much. My house isn't really in flood danger (few miles inland) and overall this feels like a nothing burger.

I'm not sure what the next one will bring though, and it does seem like this year has been muggy.

[Sal Picante]

I've stocked up on supplies.

p/COdX3NSLlAk

[HeavyDuty]

I’m a little worried about my best friend. She lives two blocks in from the water in Gulfport, FL.

[Inkwell 41]

We’re in Lee County. I hope to just wave at Elsa as she passes by. Already overcast here. Been a couple light showers, but very calm. Supposed to have gusts in the 20-30 mph range late tonight/early tomorrow and through the day tomorrow. Gas stations and Publix aren’t sold out so we have that going for us.

[Duelist]

OMG, they named it Elsa!

Let it go, let it go!

[Hambo]

Tornado watch from Orlando to the Keys.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0337_radar_big.gif

[Cory]

I guess my county is doing the local state of emergency thing. We're expecting heavy storm surge and winds of 55-60mph gust. Something like 40 sustained.

My employer is telling us stay home and wait by the phone. I think i'll wind up checking for damage for a couple hours and going home.

Edit: Someone said Jim Cantore is at a local publix. Better take my wind chimes down at the house.

[Hambo]

Someone said Jim Cantore is at a local publix.

May God have mercy on your soul. ;)

[Cory]

May God have mercy on your soul. ;)

Yup.

I guess he was at the Publix in Crystal River, and was later up at Cedar Key a bit north.

[Inkwell 41]

Yup.

I guess he was at the Publix in Crystal River, and was later up at Cedar Key a bit north.

Canmore? Ugghhhh.

We’re seeing the heaviest ran yet today. Some gusts. Nothing bad…… so far.

To anyone in the cone, stay safe.

[RJ]

Just a quick update on Hurricane Elsa. The storm intensified just enough (75 mph) to be rated as a Hurricane at the 8pm NHC advisory just now.

Pathwise, as I thought it might, it appears to be on track to come ashore around Cedar Key FL. Cedar Key is a lovely little village on a set of islands well North of Tampa (been there a couple times in the RV.) It has to be said, this part of FL is not, really, that highly populated (pop. of Cedar Key is something like 700, IIRC) and the same inland to Chiefland and up across to Gainesville.

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So while I don't want to downplay the devastation that a Hurricane can do (I've been through three; my wife went through one and came out with the clothes on her back, literally) if there is a place in FL for landfall that would minimize damage and loss of life, this would be it. Hopefully everyone in the path will be safe and follow local emergency orders, and come through ok.

Here in Venice (South of Sarasota) we are going through some light rain bands and gusty (20 mph ish) winds blowing the palms around. That's about it. Most local businesses and residents aren't going nuts; I saw a few places that closed at 3PM to let their staff go home and tie up the lawn furniture and so on; which is about all one does in FL with a Tropical Storm. It's really not that big a deal.

I am reserving a few choice words for the Weather Channel, however. I was catching up on some of the activity in The Keys and rest of the state and switched it on this afternoon. While I appreciate all the good work that Meteorologists do, some of these idiots they have on TV are morons. The coverage would lead you to believe that this storm was The End of The World As We Know It, but the actual reporting was comical. For example, I was listening to one bright young thing, standing in a rain storm (don't they have sense to get in out of the weather?) and explain how high winds of 30 to 40 mph could be dangerous and you could even (and I quote) "BE HIT BY A COCONUT OR PALM FROND DROPPING FROM A TREE!!." My God where do they get these people.

Anyway. Stay safe ya'll.

[HeavyDuty]

My friend made it home ok to Gulfport - she runs a little post office on Anna Maria Island and has to drive across the big bridge that closes in bad weather.

[HeavyDuty]

"BE HIT BY A COCONUT OR PALM FROND DROPPING FROM A TREE!!.

Hey, I almost got my ticket punched by a coconut in San Diego. It landed a foot from me with a huge thud.

[RJ]

Hey, I almost got my ticket punched by a coconut in San Diego. It landed a foot from me with a huge thud.

That must have sucked.

Honestly I wish I had had a DVR to record the whole scene as he relayed this tidbit.

The state has an actual T.S. bearing down. People need to know specific things like local expected wind speed, rainfall predictions, and flood area information, but this was what they chose to tell me about.

That a coconut might fall out of a tree. A friggen coconut.

[Hambo]

So while I don't want to downplay the devastation that a Hurricane can do if there is a place in FL for landfall that would minimize damage and loss of life, this would be it.

Not that we expect this to be devastating, but if it is, it is. The number of people whose lives get changed is still important whether it's 100 or 100K. I know you weren't saying that, but using numbers as measure of tragedy really bugs me.

[RJ]

Not that we expect this to be devastating, but if it is, it is. The number of people whose lives get changed is still important whether it's 100 or 100K. I know you weren't saying that, but using numbers as measure of tragedy really bugs me.

I respect that.

My monetary loss from the Hurricanes I went through when I lived in Winter Springs was around five figues. I wrote a check and had some minor inconveniences for a few weeks. My wife kept her life and the clothes she walked out of the house with. Literally everything else was washed out to sea by the storm surge. She started over, for example getting clothes from the Salvation Army. So yeah like many, we do appreciate the sobering impact of these storms, large or small. I certainly hope and pray all in the path of this come out ok.

[Joe in PNG]

Florida and hurricanes are a lot like the Midwest and tornadoes, or the far north and blizzards. One has to come to terms with the fact that they are a regular occurrence in that location, and plan accordingly.

[Gater]

Not that we expect this to be devastating, but if it is, it is. The number of people whose lives get changed is still important whether it's 100 or 100K. I know you weren't saying that, but using numbers as measure of tragedy really bugs me.

Amen. I am far from there now but all of my immediate family other than spouse are in the path, and extended family much closer to the X. As Hambo said, I know you aren't saying that those people don't matter @RJ, but a lot of people out that way are there because they don't have much to start with--and no resources to recover from loss. This doesn't look to be the storm of storms, and these folks are familiar with hurricanes. We'll hope for the best.

ETA: clarification.

[Inkwell 41]

It rained all night and some heavy gusts happened in the early morning. The yard is soggy and the dog didn’t really want to spend enough time to finish his business. It’s drying up now, but still overcast. Hope everyone else affected by the storm has it as easy, or easier than that.

[Jim Watson]

A friend in St Leo had sandbags across the back door and a generous retention pond and high lake level but did not consider it serious.

[Stephanie B]

Elsa is going to pass by here tomorrow morning. CPA will be about 10AM and about 20 miles away, give or take. We had advance tickets to a movie, we may have to call and cancel out.

I took some lightish garden stuff inside, furled the umbrella and tied it off, and inverted the patio chairs. They're pretty heavy, but right-side up, they're sails.

Flood warnings are out for the western part of LI Sound, as the wind will push the water that way.

[Gater]

Some storm sportiness here in mid-Atlantic today. My kin in FL came through ok other than tons of water on top of a bunch of too much already. Real flooding locally, and very sadly someone killed in Jax by a falling tree.

[Stephanie B]

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I had lunch yesterday at Eastern Point Beach in Groton, CT. The beach is on the eastern side of the mouth of the Thames river. I saw a tug going out to sea, which usually indicates a submarine is inbound to either the Navy base or the shipyard (since the corrupt bastards at the CT Port Authority gave two piers to a wind-power cartel, few ships arrive anymore). A few minutes later, I saw the sail of a submarine near the horizon.

That seemed odd to me. With the forecast yesterday showing that Hurricane Henri was going to hit here directly, it made little sense to me that a sub would enter port when it could just scoot out past the 100 fathom curve and ride it out in comfort.

A little while later, I saw the tug coming back in, along with the anti-terrorism (boondoggle) escort boats. No submarine.

My guess is that it came close in to offload riders or someone who needs to go on emergency leave, or has a training class starting next week.

Anyway, the odd thing about Henri is where it formed. I don't remember seeing a tropical storm form that far north before.

[hufnagel]

so far hurricane season 2021 has been a total disappointment for me. I was hoping for some free firewood.

[peterb]

Looking at the projected track for Henri, I’m concerned about the Mystic Seaport Museum and all the lovely old ships there, including the Charles W. Morgan.

[revchuck38]

so far hurricane season 2021 has been a total disappointment for me. I was hoping for some free firewood.

I hope you get no free firewood this year, I’ve seen enough downed oak trees to keep me going for a few years.

[Stephanie B]

Looking at the projected track for Henri, I’m concerned about the Mystic Seaport Museum and all the lovely old ships there, including the Charles W. Morgan.

They are taking precautions. The forecast keeps wobbling with regard to where it comes ashore and where it makes its turn to the northeast. The trains are shutting down early tomorrow morning, if not tonight.

I have a butane-powered single-burner stove. If we lose power, we can still have coffee.

[Crazy Dane]

I was on shift Tuesday when Fred came rolling through WNC and from about 1300 to 0330 is just a blur. Fred handed our ass to us with the flash flooding. Just my company alone is credited with 28 documented rescues. Haywood county and the town of Canton just to the west of where I work was annihilated. They had a big mudslide and have a lot of people missing and we have been supporting efforts daily. Everything smells like mud and I have this weird fungus from being wet for so long. Oh, it rains everyday too. For right now I get tomorrow off and I will be back at it Monday. The shit kicker of it all is we lost our 5 year old Dane, Ellie, last Saturday. I'm still trying to process that.

Ellie Mae
https://i.ibb.co/TbVjWrN/DC553-BF2-1361-48-A0-B5-F7-903-C37-B9587-B.jpg (https://ibb.co/F0SZHnd)

I got 2 pics before my phone got too wet to work. 6 cars got caught in fast rising water. We had just gone through here not 15 minutes prior and there was no water on the road.

https://i.ibb.co/7JKHWDp/0-ED6-F4-EE-16-D5-47-E7-8-CF8-362-F1-DB4962-D.jpg (https://ibb.co/gMJGT8W)
https://i.ibb.co/B6QF2H9/3-F826-F53-040-A-4-E63-B0-D4-B3423-D645-E19.jpg (https://ibb.co/7pZLtxq)
That road sign on the left was completely covered by the time we were done had to back the trucks up twice.
If you want some free firewood, come on down we could use the help with clean up.

[Stephanie B]

Anyway, the odd thing about Henri is where it formed. I don't remember seeing a tropical storm form that far north before.

The 1991 “Perfect Storm” apparently did something similar. It was a nor’easter that went south and developed into an unnamed hurricane.

[Stephanie B]

I was on shift Tuesday when Fred came rolling through WNC and from about 1300 to 0330 is just a blur. Fred handed our ass to us with the flash flooding. Just my company alone is credited with 28 documented rescues. Haywood county and the town of Canton just to the west of where I work was annihilated. They had a big mudslide and have a lot of people missing and we have been supporting efforts daily. Everything smells like mud and I have this weird fungus from being wet for so long. Oh, it rains everyday too. For right now I get tomorrow off and I will be back at it Monday. The shit kicker of it all is we lost our 5 year old Dane, Ellie, last Saturday. I'm still trying to process that.
My condolences, I know how much that sucks.

[Hambo]

I was on shift Tuesday when Fred came rolling through WNC and from about 1300 to 0330 is just a blur. Fred handed our ass to us with the flash flooding. Just my company alone is credited with 28 documented rescues. Haywood county and the town of Canton just to the west of where I work was annihilated. They had a big mudslide and have a lot of people missing and we have been supporting efforts daily. Everything smells like mud and I have this weird fungus from being wet for so long. Oh, it rains everyday too. For right now I get tomorrow off and I will be back at it Monday. The shit kicker of it all is we lost our 5 year old Dane, Ellie, last Saturday. I'm still trying to process that.


Sorry about your dog. That really sucks. Do you need anything up there?

[blues]

Sorry to hear about your loss, F. That's a tough one. I'm close by if you need.

[Crazy Dane]

Sorry about your dog. That really sucks. Do you need anything up there?


Thank you everyone for the condolences.

Really all we need is dry weather and sunshine. The number of missing in Haywood has dropped to single digits(3 still unaccounted for, as reported by the news this morning), down from over 30 on the day of the flood. A lot of people that were missing had self evacuated before it all happened and it was slow to make contact. They remembered the flood of 2004. It seems like anybody with heavy equipment showed up to clear debris so that is going well. Efforts to rebuild is being organized. The hardest part in all of this is access. The list of bridges that were washed away or damaged is a long one and didn't account for private ones.

I am thankful to have a couple of days off.

Thankyou again, Forrest

[theJanitor]

How have our PF'ers fared through Hurricane Ida? Not much I can offer from my location except empathy.

[revchuck38]

How have our PF'ers fared through Hurricane Ida? Not much I can offer from my location except empathy.

Ida made landfall far enough away from me that there was no effect on the weather except for slightly more wind.

[Caballoflaco]

Yeah, I hope our PF folks are good.

I saw a convoy of NYPD passenger vans and vans pulling command trailers down ya’lls way pass through central AL this morning. It made me feel proud of our country and how we try to help each other out when things get shitty.

[Pacioli]

I bugged out of Baton Rouge and glad I did. No power, cell, or internet (Cox Cable). Trees down everywhere. A family member couldn't find a gas station open today. Power will take some time in BR, they're assessing it today. I'll be dislocated until power resumption. That's the new wrinkle on remote working. I need power to run computers and connect to the office servers (running electronics on a portable generator is a bad idea from what I've read). And the office probably won't get power any sooner than my house. They have generators but not enough to run the HVAC in a 12 story building, just the servers, IT rooms, elevators and other essentials.

New Orleans got hit very hard. A major transmission tower was toppled into the MS River. One of my co-workers from Metairie said they were told to not expect power until November. That could be under-promising but they'll still be without for a long time. You don't get transmission towers overnighted from towers-r-us. My co worker will be remotely working from Houston for a long time. I expect that will be a thing for a lot of New Orleanians.

Still, we're unharmed, I'm told the house is undamaged. Things could always be worse.

[GearFondler]

I live near Slidell which is 40 miles north of New Orleans. We had pretty severe winds and rain with many trees down and lots of flooding. I came out great and am extremely thankful... Only lost 3 roof tiles! I had about 6 trees and tree tops fall on my property from the yard behind me but somehow they all missed my fence, landing on each side of it, and in two cases straddling the fence without any damage. Just a lot of chainsaw work to do and a burn pile the size of a shed. No power of course so on a generator but we do have water. And tonight is the first time I've had enough signal strength to even look at the internet... Most of the day we couldn't even get texts to go through.

[pangloss]

Ida was down to a tropical storm by the time she got here. The wind knocked a few small limbs down, but no loss of power or internet service at my house, though strangely, a few house a few hundred yards from here and their streetlights were all dark tonight. A friend a couple of hours to the south was told not to expect electricity for two weeks.

Sent from my moto e5 cruise using Tapatalk

[Stephanie B]

Here, we got just under 4” of rain from the remnants of Ida.

I have a friend in Terrebone Parish. She said when the central part of the storm hit, they were fully prepared to die, they didn’t think that they were going to live through it. There is no electrical power anywhere, other than from generators. The hospitals have closed and evacuated all patients. The sheriff evacuated the jail before the storm hit. It is hot, humid, and everybody is carrying guns. (Including her.)

I was in upstate NY when the Blackout of 2003 hit, the cell network failed in 12 hours. The cell network is still operational in Terrebone Parish. Maybe they’ve learned something. Right now, it’s the only modern convenience that they still have.

[hufnagel]

Some in nj got their fudge seriously packed. There's a street on the other side of town with the Passaic river as their back yard. Said river is now their front yard. And their street. And their development.

[Rex G]

Wow, Ida has kept on biting, kicking, scratching, and screaming, right up through NY/NJ and NE. Hope all P-F’ers are OK.

Edited to add: Some folks here, in the Houston and SE Texas area, were seriously anxious about Ida, until it was well ashore, well east of us.

[Stephanie B]

Some in nj got their fudge seriously packed. There's a street on the other side of town with the Passaic river as their back yard. Said river is now their front yard. And their street. And their development.

A number of people in NYC who lived in below-grade apartments died in them.

[MK11]

7.5 inches of rain in one night and our second 100-year storm in three months.



https://www.tiktok.com/@world_gone_wild/video/7003181125636017414?sender_device=pc&sender_web_id=6925853956423288325&is_from_webapp=v1&is_copy_url=0

[hufnagel]

https://www.tapinto.net/towns/berkeley-heights/articles/berkeley-heights-firefighters-put-marine-1-to-work-during-tropical-storm-ida-s-visit


While various units from the Police and Fire departments were working on Diamond Hill Road, a 60-inch corrugated pipe under the road “failed and undermined the ramp from 78 West to Diamond Hill Road,” Hopkins said.

An update issued this afternoon by Police Captain Ernie Schmidt said “Interstate 78 West Exit 43 (Diamond Hill Road) will be closed indefinitely. NJ DOT is evaluating water damage that may compromise the integrity of the roadway.”


http://www.shutupandtakemymoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ConcernedGrimAurochs-size_restricted.gif

[dmiculek]

We were in the middle of Ida here. 10.5 days no power and we just got internet access late yesterday. Entire parish was without power. No running water for 3 days. We fared pretty well with just minor damage. Many of my neighbors lost roof's and have a lot of water damage. South and sightly east of us a great many are still without power and limited water.
We were well prepared and it payed off. For the severity of damage to the power grid it is amazing that we had power restored as quickly as we did. A big salute to thousands of lineman who made it possible.

[Rex G]

Texas and Louisiana folks, let’s get ready for this one. This one could make landfall farther south, and then stall, between Austin and Houston, in Texas, and then sit there, as a “captive low,” pulling Gulf moisture over Lousiana and Texas, for an extended period of time. This is according to the “European Model.” The GFS indicates a later landfall, along the upper Texas Coast, as a stronger-wind storm, perhaps reaching Hurricane strenth, but dumping much less total rain, as it will keep moving, and get away from the Gulf, which provides its moisture. Either scenario is going to hurt some folks worse than others. Either scenario means that somebody is going to get really wet, regardless.

One thing, in our favor, is that the ground is dry, in so much of Texas, with rivers and streams running relatively low. There is somewhere for much of the water to go.

Some Louisiana folks, who may still be under tarps, and may still have no power, are going to have problems, especially if upper-level SW winds push the top of this storm far east of the eye area. The farthest-away band-like area of rain is already sweeping into southern Lousiana, as I type this.

Let’s stay safe and well.

[Stephanie B]

My friend in Houma got power back today. Water came back on 3 days ago. She says it’s nice without gensets roaring all around.

She said the streets are lousy with utility trucks. They’re her heros.

[revchuck38]

Some Louisiana folks, who may still be under tarps, and may still have no power, are going to have problems, especially if upper-level SW winds push the top of this storm far east of the eye area. The farthest-away band-like area of rain is already sweeping into southern Lousiana, as I type this.

Let’s stay safe and well.

We've got people still under tarps from Laura, and it's really gonna suck to be them. That said, it looks like the majority of the rain won't quite reach as far as the area affected by Ida. There weren't any problems from Ida where I live. I'm to the east of the predicted storm track so I'm on the "wet" side. Current predictions are 5-7+" of rain from this storm with about twice that to the south. We've had normal summer weather here lately so the ground is fairly saturated. Schools are closed tomorrow and probably will be Tuesday and Wednesday as well.

The current track has the eye passing straight through Houston - y'all be careful!

[Rex G]

Well, the consensus now seems to be that the storm will make landfall at the coastal bend of Texas, and then pass between Austin and Houston, but without stalling, as a “captive” low pressure system, as some models had previously thought. If so, this may be the best outcome, for the most people, as it would keep much of the rain where it is needed. Seriously, the ground has been starting to crack, in some nearby parts of Texas. Yes, of course, some people will suffer, with too much water, too quickly, but this storm is inevitably passing over populated areas, regardless.

[Rex G]

My friend in Houma got power back today. Water came back on 3 days ago. She says it’s nice without gensets roaring all around.

She said the streets are lousy with utility trucks. They’re her heros.

This is good news. Glad they are (presumably) not going to get a windy hit from Nicholas.

[Rex G]

Well, the 10 PM update indicates that Nicholas has started its NE turn earlier than expected, just before landfall, rather than after passing through Houston. It did already reach minimal hurricane strength. This earlier NE might matter, however, to some folks in immediate coastal SE Texas, and in Louisiana. The weather guy did mention dry air feeding into the storm, and I will pray for more of that dry air, to keep doing its work to fight the storm.

Edited to add: Not that we are not feeling it. We lost power, for a bit, right after I posted the above update. The usual trees seem to be thrashing the usual power lines.

[blues]

Keep your heads down...we'll be pulling for you all.

[Rex G]

Thanks for the expressions of support. We are good, in Bellaire, Texas, one of the three “land-locked” (surrounded by Houston) ‘burb cites west of the Texas Medical Center. A few limbs down, periodic brief power outages, and I heard what I believed to be a transformer giving up the ghost, on the dog walk, a few minutes ago. The technical center of circulation is a short distance away, so the center has yet to pass us, but the actual path is not where the heavy rains are happening. Pasadena and Baytown, to the southeast of the storm’s track, are not having it so good, right now, and this messy part is going to be visiting more of SE Texas, and Louisiana, as the day passes. I am especially concerned about the folks, still under tarps, in Louisiana.