21 ton Chinese rocket will make re-entry very soon

[LittleLebowski]

And they’ll get away with it. COVID19 what?

https://spacenews.com/huge-rocket-looks-set-for-uncontrolled-reentry-following-chinese-space-station-launch/


China launched the first module for its space station into orbit late Wednesday, but the mission launcher also reached orbit and is slowly and unpredictably heading back to Earth.

The Long March 5B, a variant of China’s largest rocket, successfully launched the 22.5-metric-ton Tianhe module from Wenchang Thursday local time. Tianhe separated from the core stage of the launcher after 492 seconds of flight, directly entering its planned initial orbit.

Designed specifically to launch space station modules into low Earth orbit, the Long March 5B uniquely uses a core stage and four side boosters to place its payload directly into low Earth orbit.

However this core stage is now also in orbit and is likely to make an uncontrolled reentry over the next days or week as growing interaction with the atmosphere drags it to Earth. If so, it will be one of the largest instances of uncontrolled reentry of a spacecraft and could potentially land on an inhabited area.

Tracking map link:
https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=48275

[MickAK]

Well, Elon did
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/after-fiery-display-spacex-debris-landed-washington-farm-180977494/

Easier to sue SpaceX though.

[Paul D]

Tracking map link:
https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=48275

Would be kinda be funny (not really) and ironic (really) if it hit Tehran on its way down.

[SecondsCount]

One of these days I will be able to buy one of these at Harbor Freight. I wonder if they will honor a 20% off coupon on a multi million dollar rocket.

[Caballoflaco]

Would be kinda be funny (not really) and ironic (really) if it hit Tehran on its way down.

Looks like it’s going to be passing really close the pyramids in Luxor on its next complete orbit....Breaking the pyramids would not be a feather in their cap.

[farscott]

Can you imagine the mess (real and political) if this thing tosses debris over North America? The latest travel paths show it over the USA from NC to NY, just south of Chicago, by Indy, by KC, by Denver, and through northern CA. There is a decent chance of debris in a populated area if it comes down in North America. On the plus side, there appear to be plenty of chances to see the thing pass over in the next week or so.

[Stephanie B]

Did everyone forget about Skylab (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skylab#Re-entry_and_debris)?

[farscott]

Did everyone forget about Skylab (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skylab#Re-entry_and_debris)?

No, Skylab is one of the reasons for the modern controls around reentry. The good news is that we have come a long way since the 1970s with controlled reentry. The bad news is that space travel is hard to get right as the Chinese are experiencing.

[Hambo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFEewD4EVwU

[SecondsCount]

Can you imagine the mess (real and political) if this thing tosses debris over North America? The latest travel paths show it over the USA from NC to NY, just south of Chicago, by Indy, by KC, by Denver, and through northern CA. There is a decent chance of debris in a populated area if it comes down in North America. On the plus side, there appear to be plenty of chances to see the thing pass over in the next week or so.

Can you imagine the mess if a virus escaped a lab in China and caused millions of deaths? Oh wait...

[LittleLebowski]

Can you imagine the mess if a virus escaped a lab in China and caused millions of deaths? Oh wait...

Somebody said something mean on Twitter.

[5pins]

https://thumbs.worthpoint.com/zoom/images2/1/0118/27/vintage-1979-skylab-fallout-safety_1_44ade782c62533308b4bf17067eaad71.jpg

[WDR]

Can you imagine the mess if a virus escaped a lab in China and caused millions of deaths? Oh wait...

It's a bit easier to pin this booster on the Chinese, than it is to prove China screwed the pooch on Covid... but... yeah

[blues]

Covid....Getting flattened by Chinese rocket.


Classic.

One from Column A, one from Column B.

[Caballoflaco]

It's a bit easier to pin this booster on the Chinese, than it is to prove China screwed the pooch on Covid... but... yeah

They don’t know where it came from. They left their space station at a friends house and now it’s in space with some random booster hurtling back towards earth.

[Trigger]

Sweet Meteor of Death

[Shoresy]

Not the first time this has happened.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/large-chunks-of-a-chinese-rocket-missed-new-york-city-by-about-15-minutes/

China is asshole.

[WDR]

They don’t know where it came from. They left their space station at a friends house and now it’s in space with some random booster hurtling back towards earth.

Officer... these are not my pants.

[Poconnor]

China- “too many Americans know we released virus. We must distract them while we invade - I mean render humanitarian aid to Taiwan”
How about we accidentally drop a big rocket on them? Good idea!

[OlongJohnson]

Most Glorious and Totally Innocent Scientific Research Satellite (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15373897/because-lemons-legends-dont-just-win-races-the-amazing-cars-and-costumes-of-eyesore-racing/)

71001

[Guerrero]

https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/m_Z07PVm_Yj2X2_u741uaZ4undg=/3x38:1531x898/720x405/media/old_wire/img/upload/2013/07/12/racistnames/original.jpg

[LittleLebowski]

Soon.

[RJ]

Ya'll don't appreciate the "gravity" of this situation. :cool:

[blues]

Ya'll don't appreciate the "gravity" of this situation. :cool:

Well, that went over like a lead balloon.

;)

[Duelist]

Started watching yesterday. I have learned something very interesting about free-floating orbiting junk: it increases and decreases in altitude. I still don’t know why. I thought for about a half an hour yesterday that the rocket body was going to hit Samoa because it was dropping fast and was lined up with the largest island, but then it stopped dropping, the flight path went over the islands, and climbed for a while. But the lowest point of the oscillation has decreased, as has the highest point. So if I’m being a seer, I predict it will get too low and finish falling. Probably not with a lot of style. Probably hit something if we aren’t lucky. The one that went down in 2020 dropped pieces that were as much as several hundred kilos.

[blues]

21 tons and what do you get?,

Another day older and a Chinese threat,

St. Peter don't you call me, 'cause I can't go,

I owe my soul to the Walmart store.

[whomever]

Started watching yesterday. I have learned something very interesting about free-floating orbiting junk: it increases and decreases in altitude. I still don’t know why. I thought for about a half an hour yesterday that the rocket body was going to hit Samoa because it was dropping fast and was lined up with the largest island, but then it stopped dropping, the flight path went over the islands, and climbed for a while. But the lowest point of the oscillation has decreased, as has the highest point. So if I’m being a seer, I predict it will get too low and finish falling. Probably not with a lot of style. Probably hit something if we aren’t lucky. The one that went down in 2020 dropped pieces that were as much as several hundred kilos.

I know a fellow who used to do satellite control eons ago at Goddard ... his description was 'skipping satellites off the atmosphere like stones on a pond'.

[OlongJohnson]

Started watching yesterday. I have learned something very interesting about free-floating orbiting junk: it increases and decreases in altitude. I still don’t know why. I thought for about a half an hour yesterday that the rocket body was going to hit Samoa because it was dropping fast and was lined up with the largest island, but then it stopped dropping, the flight path went over the islands, and climbed for a while. But the lowest point of the oscillation has decreased, as has the highest point. So if I’m being a seer, I predict it will get too low and finish falling. Probably not with a lot of style. Probably hit something if we aren’t lucky. The one that went down in 2020 dropped pieces that were as much as several hundred kilos.

Read basics of orbits. They're elliptical, not circular. Just like a comet, but not generally as elongated. Decreasing apogee and perigee is consistent with losing energy to the atmosphere each time it gets close. It will come down.

[camel]

https://orbit.ing-now.com/satellite/48275/2021-035b/cz-5b/

Not sure about the reliability of this website. But it’s calculations makes re-entering some time around 10/5.

[Joe in PNG]

Then there's this bit of classy memeing from the PRC:
71039

Translation: “China lighting a fire versus India lighting a fire.”

[Borderland]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFEewD4EVwU

That was good. ;)

[Borderland]

Covid....Getting flattened by Chinese rocket.


Classic.

One from Column A, one from Column B.

Chinese. All you need to know.

[Borderland]

Most Glorious and Totally Innocent Scientific Research Satellite (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15373897/because-lemons-legends-dont-just-win-races-the-amazing-cars-and-costumes-of-eyesore-racing/)

71001

Eat my space garbage. You suck.

[Caballoflaco]

Looks like this thing will be coming down sometime tonight/tomorrow morning.

This site is predicting 1hr 7min, but within 4 hours. The tracking sites show it passing over CONUS in about 2 orbits.

https://orbit.ing-now.com/satellite/48275/2021-035b/cz-5b/

[OlongJohnson]

Real time position tracker here:

https://mapshot.app/pkg/longmarch.html

[Greg]

If it lands in my back yard and kills the vole I won’t be angry.

[randyho]

Looks like this thing will be coming down sometime tonight/tomorrow morning.

This site is predicting 1hr 7min, but within 4 hours. The tracking sites show it passing over CONUS in about 2 orbits.

https://orbit.ing-now.com/satellite/48275/2021-035b/cz-5b/
This site: What the hell is this?


Real time position tracker here:

https://mapshot.app/pkg/longmarch.html
Glad there's no way to block bad news associated with the chinese.


If it lands in my back yard and kills the vole I won’t be angry.My dandelions are under control. There are very few scenarios where this is upside.

[Caballoflaco]

This site: What the hell is this?.

It was one of the satellite tracking sites that was posted upthread, but it looks like the page for cz-5b/2021-035b (China rocket) is down.

cz-5b/2021-035b Copy that and paste it into google will find you a couple of other sites with live tracking, unfortunately a lot of these tracking sites don’t have the bandwidth to accommodate the huge surge in traffic relative to normal interest in satellite tracking and are going down or really slow right now. A YouTube search will also pull up several channels that are live-streaming tracking info.

[OlongJohnson]

It appears it's likely down.

https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp/status/1391216632689688582?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1391216632689688582%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fque ry%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2FAerospaceCorp2Fstatus 2F1391216632689688582widget%3DTweet



The Aerospace Corporation
@AerospaceCorp
·
29m
The absence of new data sets could indicate #LongMarch5B reentered. This fits both our own latest prediction's uncertainty range and
@SpaceTrackOrg
predictions. Without confirmed video footage, a decay message or a new data set, we cannot yet confirm. We're still watching.

Apparently, a bunch of the "tracking" sites aren't actually tracking anything, they're just running a model. Two I was watching had the altitude different by 20km.

[Caballoflaco]

It appears it's likely down.

https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp/status/1391216632689688582?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1391216632689688582%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fque ry%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2FAerospaceCorp2Fstatus 2F1391216632689688582widget%3DTweet



Apparently, a bunch of the "tracking" sites aren't actually tracking anything, they're just running a model. Two I was watching had the altitude different by 20km.

I just learned that today too, and from the same thread.

This twitter thread has a couple of videos from Israel and reportedly Oman. The Oman video shows a condensation/smoke trail so it looks like it landed int the Indian Ocean.

https://mobile.twitter.com/planet4589

[OlongJohnson]

https://twitter.com/US_SpaceCom/status/1391242693355835403


U.S. Space Command
@US_SpaceCom
#USSPACECOM (https://pistol-forum.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=USSPACECOM) can confirm Chinese #LongMarch5B (https://pistol-forum.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=LongMarch5B) re-entered over the Arabian Peninsula at approximately 10:15 pm EDT on May 8. It is unknown if the debris impacted land or water.