Glenn E. Meyer
04-13-2021, 12:24 PM
A different take on 'stopping power'
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2688536
The Association of Firearm Caliber With Likelihood of Death From Gunshot Injury in Criminal Assaults
Anthony A. Braga, PhD1; Philip J. Cook, PhD2
Author Affiliations Article Information
JAMA Netw Open. 2018;1(3):e180833. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2018.0833
RESULTS The final sample of 511 gunshot victims and survivors (n = 220 fatal; n = 291 nonfatal) was
predominantly male (n = 470 [92.2%]), black (n = 413 [80.8%]) or Hispanic (n = 69 [13.5%]), and
young (mean [SD] age, 26.8 [9.4] years). Police investigations determined firearm caliber in 184
nonfatal cases (63.2%) and 183 fatal cases (83.2%). These 367 cases were divided into 3 groups by
caliber: small (.22, .25, and .32), medium (.38, .380, and 9 mm), or large (.357 magnum, .40, .44
magnum, .45, 10 mm, and 7.62 × 39 mm). Firearm caliber had no systematic association with the
number of wounds, the location of wounds, circumstances of the assault, or victim characteristics, as
demonstrated by χ2 tests of each cluster of variables and by a comprehensive multinomial logit
analysis. A logit analysis of the likelihood of death found that compared with small-caliber cases,
medium caliber had an odds ratio of 2.25 (95%CI, 1.37-3.70; P = .001) and large caliber had an odds
ratio of 4.54 (95%CI, 2.37-8.70; P < .001). Based on a simulation using the logit equation, replacing
the medium- and large-caliber guns with small-caliber guns would have reduced gun homicides
by 39.5%.
There are quite a few interesting charts with more detailed breakdowns.
9 mm most common. More shots in fatal shootings 6.11 vs. 4.41(seems obvious but this is a report). Seems in crimes, 3 is not enough?
Relative to shootings involving small-caliber firearms (reference
category), the odds of death if the gun was large caliber were 4.5 times higher (OR, 4.54; 95%CI,
2.37-8.70; P < .001) and, if medium caliber, 2.3 times higher (OR, 2.25; 95%CI, 1.37-3.70; P = .001).
It is plausible that larger reductions would be associated with replacing all types of
guns with knives or clubs.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2688536
The Association of Firearm Caliber With Likelihood of Death From Gunshot Injury in Criminal Assaults
Anthony A. Braga, PhD1; Philip J. Cook, PhD2
Author Affiliations Article Information
JAMA Netw Open. 2018;1(3):e180833. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2018.0833
RESULTS The final sample of 511 gunshot victims and survivors (n = 220 fatal; n = 291 nonfatal) was
predominantly male (n = 470 [92.2%]), black (n = 413 [80.8%]) or Hispanic (n = 69 [13.5%]), and
young (mean [SD] age, 26.8 [9.4] years). Police investigations determined firearm caliber in 184
nonfatal cases (63.2%) and 183 fatal cases (83.2%). These 367 cases were divided into 3 groups by
caliber: small (.22, .25, and .32), medium (.38, .380, and 9 mm), or large (.357 magnum, .40, .44
magnum, .45, 10 mm, and 7.62 × 39 mm). Firearm caliber had no systematic association with the
number of wounds, the location of wounds, circumstances of the assault, or victim characteristics, as
demonstrated by χ2 tests of each cluster of variables and by a comprehensive multinomial logit
analysis. A logit analysis of the likelihood of death found that compared with small-caliber cases,
medium caliber had an odds ratio of 2.25 (95%CI, 1.37-3.70; P = .001) and large caliber had an odds
ratio of 4.54 (95%CI, 2.37-8.70; P < .001). Based on a simulation using the logit equation, replacing
the medium- and large-caliber guns with small-caliber guns would have reduced gun homicides
by 39.5%.
There are quite a few interesting charts with more detailed breakdowns.
9 mm most common. More shots in fatal shootings 6.11 vs. 4.41(seems obvious but this is a report). Seems in crimes, 3 is not enough?
Relative to shootings involving small-caliber firearms (reference
category), the odds of death if the gun was large caliber were 4.5 times higher (OR, 4.54; 95%CI,
2.37-8.70; P < .001) and, if medium caliber, 2.3 times higher (OR, 2.25; 95%CI, 1.37-3.70; P = .001).
It is plausible that larger reductions would be associated with replacing all types of
guns with knives or clubs.