Training to most likely or most dangerous COA?

[KEW8338]

When it comes to training everyone has some resource that is scarce. Time, ammo, availability etc.

I would wager, most people on this forum work to prioritize training using some degree of analysis of most likely and most dangerous courses of action

What is everyone's spread on how they weight those both in training, planning and preparation?

Using this video as an example (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9395039/Video-captures-cops-final-moment-murdered-cartel-assassins-Mexico.html). To me, that would be a case of most dangerous COA coming to life. Those cops were likely trained how to deal with a very "normal"(normal in a sense of the job) situations, but quickly found themselves outpaced.

[Odin Bravo One]

The mindset I adopted when I began the profession of arms was that I’d train as if I had to fight my equals, or most dangerous COA, or “scariest environment imaginable”. At no time during my 25+ years of shooting guns for a living was I ever in a situation where I felt that I was not adequately prepared. And when facing run of the mill shitheads, it was rare to get an elevated heart rate, as most of those encounters ended up more as shootings, and much less as gunfights.

I highly recommend shootings when presented with the choice........

I mean, fuck me, gunfights are scary and dangerous. You can get killed doing that kind of shit.

[rob_s]

With most pursuits, I’ve found it best to break things down into fundamentals, and then apply those fundamentals when needed. Ideally you reach a level of subconscious competence (SC) with the fundamentals such that you don’t even have to think about what you’re physically doing, which in turn frees up your brain to think entirely about the issue at hand.

For most people on this forum, o would expect that there are a certain core group of fundamentals that are at the SC leave, and then a layer on top of that of conscious competence (CC) skills. So for example we are probably all capable of drawing pistols, aligning sites, pressing triggers, and maybe reloading without giving them any thought, but a tricky malfunction might take a level of CC to clear. Activating a weapon-mounted-light (WML) may take some CC for some not used to having one.

So I don’t find a whole lot of need for scenario-based training or even giving it much thought. Competition can help with that as, once you have those core SC skills, it challenges you to deal with the unknown to some degree. Even in USPSA where you’re trying to run a rehearsed stage plan, things go wrong and you have to adapt. That’s good brain training IMO.

Over the past couple of months I built a couple of, nearly identical, wood decks. In both cases, I was pretty happy to see that there were many SC skills (screwing in boards, cutting off ends, aligning speed square, retrieving pencil from tool pouch, etc) that made the projects go much easier than I would imagine they would for a total noob. But when the time came to build the second deck there were skills that may have been CC on the first one that suddenly became SC on the second.

[KEW8338]

With most pursuits, I’ve found it best to break things down into fundamentals, and then apply those fundamentals when needed. Ideally you reach a level of subconscious competence (SC) with the fundamentals such that you don’t even have to think about what you’re physically doing, which in turn frees up your brain to think entirely about the issue at hand.

For most people on this forum, o would expect that there are a certain core group of fundamentals that are at the SC leave, and then a layer on top of that of conscious competence (CC) skills. So for example we are probably all capable of drawing pistols, aligning sites, pressing triggers, and maybe reloading without giving them any thought, but a tricky malfunction might take a level of CC to clear. Activating a weapon-mounted-light (WML) may take some CC for some not used to having one.

So I don’t find a whole lot of need for scenario-based training or even giving it much thought. Competition can help with that as, once you have those core SC skills, it challenges you to deal with the unknown to some degree. Even in USPSA where you’re trying to run a rehearsed stage plan, things go wrong and you have to adapt. That’s good brain training IMO.

Over the past couple of months I built a couple of, nearly identical, wood decks. In both cases, I was pretty happy to see that there were many SC skills (screwing in boards, cutting off ends, aligning speed square, retrieving pencil from tool pouch, etc) that made the projects go much easier than I would imagine they would for a total noob. But when the time came to build the second deck there were skills that may have been CC on the first one that suddenly became SC on the second.

What degree of performance do you consider necessary for SC?

If you were forced to codify it as a 1.5 second draw, or sub 2 sec bill drill. What would those metrics look like?

How do you validate you have a skill at the subconscious level?

[rob_s]

What degree of performance do you consider necessary for SC?

If you were forced to codify it as a 1.5 second draw, or sub 2 sec bill drill. What would those metrics look like?

How do you validate you have a skill at the subconscious level?

it's all personal. I don't care about yours, and you probably shouldn't care about mine.


ETA:
to try and offer something in a positive direction...

It's more of a feeling. You shoot a stage and realize you don't even really remember sight pictures, draw, trigger, etc. Or maybe you got halfway through your choreography and something didn't work out as you expected and you were able to put all of your mental focus on solving the problem without actively thinking about some of the fundamentals.

it's not about times and temps.

[okie john]

it's all personal. I don't care about yours, and you probably shouldn't care about mine.


ETA:
to try and offer something in a positive direction...

It's more of a feeling. You shoot a stage and realize you don't even really remember sight pictures, draw, trigger, etc. Or maybe you got halfway through your choreography and something didn't work out as you expected and you were able to put all of your mental focus on solving the problem without actively thinking about some of the fundamentals.

it's not about times and temps.

This.

I remember shooting a very complex IDPA stage one time and cleaning it in a time that turned heads among other competitors. The stage designer was an OB/GYN. He had brought in a dummy of a baby that weighed about 10 pounds. You had to carry the baby while you shot the stage, and dropping it was an instant DQ. When it was over, he asked me how I had done it. I said, "I shot reverse Weaver at first and I pulled my workspace in really close." That's really all I remember about it. I was so focused on not dropping the baby that I couldn't--and apparently didn't--think about anything else.


Okie John

[PNWTO]

I think re-reading Sean’s and Rob’s posts pretty much sums it up.

Although for a personal addition will say I have put much more emphasis on edged weapons and combatives the past few years. My “worst COA” is also my reality: can’t carry a firearm at work and that’s also the time when I frequently meet and engage with strangers. I also happen to be solo and in remote areas most of that time. So MUC, SPEAR, blades, BJJ, and boxing are the priorities. Dry fire a few times a week and go to range enough to maintain a baseline standard with firearms.

Lastly, Defoor has a nice little “priority” list I try to adhere to:

Mindset

Fitness

Tactics

Equipment

[rob_s]

I think re-reading Sean’s and Rob’s posts pretty much sums it up.

Although for a personal addition will say I have put much more emphasis on edged weapons and combatives the past few years. My “worst COA” is also my reality: can’t carry a firearm at work and that’s also the time when I frequently meet and engage with strangers. I also happen to be solo and in remote areas most of that time. So MUC, SPEAR, blades, BJJ, and boxing are the priorities. Dry fire a few times a week and go to range enough to maintain a baseline standard with firearms.

that's an important distinction, and one that may be more inline with the OP's question than my response, IDK.


Lastly, Defoor has a nice little “priority” list I try to adhere to:

Mindset

Diet and General Health

avoid risk

Fitness

Tactics

Equipment

I like to add the bit in red. Maybe you could merge them to "lifestyle".

folks should focus first on what's most likely to kill them, IMO (although that becomes a sticky argument sometimes). A person has to first *want* to survive (hence, mindset). Defoor likes to tell the story of the doctor or some such that sat and watched some dirtbags butcher his own family as an example of the lack of proper mindset (FWIW, I don't think you can teach it. some folks get mad when they are hurt, others get scared. The former fight, the latter shit themselves. mostly because it's what comes naturally). Once a person wants to survive, they should start with what they're putting into their body. then start thinking about the rest of the lifestyle. I now that cousin two counties over is fun, but he also keeps getting you into fights. I know that stripper is hot, but she's really just setting you up for her real boyfriend to rob you. if a person can stop doing drugs they're probably fixing both general health AND risk. And that includes drinking, particularly if it's taking them to bad places along with eating their liver and making them fat (the latter being the biggest problem).

But I don't see any point worrying about running, guns, muy thai, or a new holster if you're a drug-addicted fatbody that hangs out with a bunch of knuckleheads (fortunately that's not the case for most here)

My most likely COA? that burger from Wendy's I just downed in 15 minutes between meetings, the beers I had this weekend, and the cigar-a-day I used to smoke!

[Default.mp3]

What degree of performance do you consider necessary for SC?

If you were forced to codify it as a 1.5 second draw, or sub 2 sec bill drill. What would those metrics look like?

How do you validate you have a skill at the subconscious level?Somewhat related, albeit possibly a bit dated:


Everyone I've spoken to about this project has HATED the word "overlearn" and all of its variants. Since the goal of overlearning is automaticity, I've changed the word used to describe the performance level I'm looking for. Hopefully, I should only offend the cardiologists with the word change.

I would fully acknowledge that it is possible to have some automaticity if one isn't super fast. I would offer that it is impossible to be super fast without some degree of automaticity. I would say that lower levels of performance do not exclude overlearning and the resultant automaticity, but that higher levels absolutely require it (except for some genetically gifted freaks with incredible kinesthetic intelligence and eye sight)

Thoughts on this one?
http://i1202.photobucket.com/albums/bb374/ajp3jeh/Gun%20Stuff/chart_blue_zpsad08aec4.jpg (http://s1202.photobucket.com/user/ajp3jeh/media/Gun%20Stuff/chart_blue_zpsad08aec4.jpg.html)

[KEW8338]

Somewhat related, albeit possibly a bit dated:

There is a whole lot of science in that, and I am no physicist. I cant say I agree with that chart though. An actual GM is measured across multiple classifiers showing performance in the top 5% of the top pistol shooters. There are plenty of drill queens that can smoke a known drill in remarkable time. But that doesn't mean they have the skill

There is a delineation between:
Drill
Skill
Application




My most likely COA? that burger from Wendy's I just downed in 15 minutes between meetings, the beers I had this weekend, and the cigar-a-day I used to smoke!

100% Agree. Most people would be better suited by a 30 minute walk than carrying a gun. That was not the point I was trying to get after.

I was hoping to get after the idea of, should the focus be on the statistical approach ("Its going to be a 7 yard, 3 second, 4.5 round gun fight" or whatever common FBI statistic is that always gets quoted) (this is what I would consider the most likely course of action) or the anomaly (lower likely hood, but higher consequences, "black swan")(most dangerous course of action).

I linked that video as a representation of what happens when you are trained to compete in the minor leagues, but find yourself in the rink of the Stanley Cup.

As for performance off what feels right. I understand what you mean. Through the research done of extreme athletes in the "flow state" that is largely how top performers feel during an exercise or event.

To me, what feels right, isn't necessarily, what wins. Which is why I was asking about what metrics are assigned to "feeling right". Or how you know, what "feeling right" should actually feel like. Or if "feeling right" is actually correct.

[JCN]

Somewhat related, albeit possibly a bit dated:

69339

That is super interesting and the first time I have seen that.

I’m a USPSA M, can clean the FAM, did a Failure to stop from surrender concealed in 1.35s, and can put 10 shots in the 10 ring at 25 yards freestyle on a timer and 292 on FBI Bullseye.

69340
69341

It seems to me that the equivalency scale is quite accurate. I’m at the point where when running on a field course, I don’t think about the shooting. Just the footwork and course.

[JCN]

When talking about what kind of scenarios I prepare for as a private citizen, I want to have a seamless no hesitation index and I want to know what kind of shots are outside of my skill set. I also want to be able to immediately identify and remedy jams and malfunctions.

And when we talk about home defense, a rifle with a suppressor.

[rob_s]

To me, what feels right, isn't necessarily, what wins.

which is why you have to find ways to test yourself.

One of the metrics I hate most in the world for first-time guy buyers is "it feels good in my hand" when standing in the gun shop. So what? Are you holding it correctly? How do you know? Does it "feel good" when you're actually firing it? are you holding it correctly then?

Basic fitment aside, "feels good in my hand" doesn't mean anything. Unless it means enough to actually get you to the range, in which case maybe it matters a little but just enough for you to realize you got it wrong the first go around and you need something different.

Aren't you also the "we don't need no stinkin classes" guy? If so, one benefit to a class is you should* have a much shorter cycle of feels-good/low-performance/corrective-action/better performance in a class than you ever will shooting drills and watching youtube.

*"should" being the operative word, provided you've got a competent instructor.

[okie john]

...I want to know what kind of shots are outside of my skill set.

You win this thread. Far too many people focus on what they can do instead of identifying what they can't do, then creating realistic Plans B, C, etc. to work around those weaknesses.


Okie John

[JJN]

Odds, stakes, and costs (including opportunity costs) to mitigate. I think starting where MLCOA and MDcoA overlap could be worth thinking about. I suspect that's why Craig and his brain trust emphasize MUC and the 0-5 ft space so much.

Left of boom should yield the best cost/benefit in most situations.

I am very guilty of backwards justifying things I like as more important than they are.

I would also say that what you are capable of at your worst is more important than at your best.

Thanks,
Jon

[JCN]

You win this thread. Far too many people focus on what they can do instead of identifying what they can't do, then creating realistic Plans B, C, etc. to work around those weaknesses.


Okie John

My wife has a great story about something similar with regards to car racing. She did a fair amount of National level racing and one day on the street in the Winter she went to hit the brakes behind a different car but it was black ice.

She knew immediately that she wouldn’t be able to stop in time and instead used her traction to glide off into the strip mall driveway to the right.

Without knowing her limits and recognizing them immediately, she would have rear ended the car in front of her.

That to me is one of the great things about competition. You get to know what you can and can’t do when you get to higher levels.

I see so many noobs fling bullets at targets at a match and are surprised when half of them are nowhere on paper.

[revchuck38]

Both worst-case and most likely scenarios will vary for each of us based on our occupations, our behaviors, and our location on life's continuum. When I was a young guy, I was fit, had access to full-auto weapons, lots of friends with full-auto weapons, and a battery of 155mm howitzers. Now I'm still relatively fit but a geezer and decently (albeit not wonderfully) skilled with handguns, defensive shotguns, and rifles. I faithfully follow the Rule of the Three Stupids. It's vanishingly unlikely I'll be attacked by a group of military-age guys with full-auto weapons. About the most likely thing I have to worry about is being targeted by a couple of tweakers looking for money, and hopefully the training I've had in MUC will mitigate that. If not, I'll see how all the shooting classes and practice I've done work in the real world. I really hope it doesn't get to that point. My worst-case scenario is a group breaking into my house from more than one entrance simultaneously. There's only one of me, I'm no John Wick, and I've got an adult daughter and a grandson to protect.

[okie john]

There's only one of me, I'm no John Wick, and I've got an adult daughter and a grandson to protect.

There is no John Wick. Solve one problem at a time—faster than the other guys—and don’t overthink it.


Okie John

[revchuck38]

There is no John Wick. Solve one problem at a time and don’t overthink it.


Okie John

Yup, that's the plan, but it would suck to be me for a while.

[okie john]

Yup, that's the plan, but it would suck to be me for a while.

Welcome to the human condition, bro.


Okie John

[revchuck38]

Welcome to the human condition, bro.


Okie John

Yeah, hopefully it'd suck more to be them. :)

[Totem Polar]

I think re-reading Sean’s and Rob’s posts pretty much sums it up.

Although for a personal addition will say I have put much more emphasis on edged weapons and combatives the past few years. My “worst COA” is also my reality: can’t carry a firearm at work and that’s also the time when I frequently meet and engage with strangers. I also happen to be solo and in remote areas most of that time. So MUC, SPEAR, blades, BJJ, and boxing are the priorities. Dry fire a few times a week and go to range enough to maintain a baseline standard with firearms.

Lastly, Defoor has a nice little “priority” list I try to adhere to:

Mindset

Fitness

Tactics

Equipment

I’ll go with this.


As an aside, that story linked in the OP was a hell of a thing.

[NoTacTravis]

Lastly, Defoor has a nice little “priority” list I try to adhere to:

Mindset

Fitness

Tactics

Equipment

I'm a bit confused by this. Does he really not have "skill with a pistol" on his list at all?

When I googled I found this link:
https://kyledefoor.tumblr.com/post/105099857118/training-balance-and-how-good-is-good-enough

Which includes pistol, carbine, and blade skills as 3 of 6 six (fully half) in each list. It doesn't seem to treat them as "equipment" which would just be something to own but rather as a skillset same as combatives (which is also on the lists at the link).

[Odin Bravo One]

Pretty sure that’s covered by “Equipment”.

[KEW8338]

Lastly, Defoor has a nice little “priority” list I try to adhere to:

Mindset

Fitness

Tactics

Equipment

That does not really address the issue.

As an example. I can cultivate the mindset that I will face off in a 1v1 against a meth head at a gas station in the middle of nowhere NC. Or I can cultivate the mindset that I am in a 2008 Mumbai like incident. One is the most common. One is the most dangerous (maybe).

Fitness. As Rob stated. Average guy will see benefits of 30 min of walking a day and not drinking so much (that would be most common). Or do you need to be able to conduct 10, 250lb, 100m buddy drags back to back.

Tactics. See mindset as an example... Do I need to train to stand and deliver against one target 7m away, or become comfortable with the necessary tactics to be able to effectively move and maneuver on a numerically superior force?

Equipment. Same thing applies.

I bring this up because the MLCOA vs MDCOA is something that levels (IMHO) across the board on all subjects and categories. Meaning, you can have the drill automaticity to deal with the MDCOA (lets say you shoot a 1.5 second bill drill), but if you lack the mindset or tactics capable of dealing with that MDCOA, then its likely all for naught.

I think there are also a great deal of ML & MD disparity, diagnosed or undiagnosed. From the outside looking in, it seems like the current craze is full on medkits, fixed blade knives, pistol reloads etc (this would be taking equipment to the MDCOA side of the spectrum), while things like fitness or mindset are left at the MLCOA side of the spectrum.

[KEW8338]

Aren't you also the "we don't need no stinkin classes" guy? If so, one benefit to a class is you should* have a much shorter cycle of feels-good/low-performance/corrective-action/better performance in a class than you ever will shooting drills and watching youtube.

*"should" being the operative word, provided you've got a competent instructor.

If that was at me, that is not the case. I am very pro training. I am also very, "there is a lot of shit training out there".

[KEW8338]

Odds, stakes, and costs (including opportunity costs) to mitigate. I think starting where MLCOA and MDcoA overlap could be worth thinking about. I suspect that's why Craig and his brain trust emphasize MUC and the 0-5 ft space so much.

Left of boom should yield the best cost/benefit in most situations.

I am very guilty of backwards justifying things I like as more important than they are.

I would also say that what you are capable of at your worst is more important than at your best.

Thanks,
Jon

From the organizational risk management perspective, that is usually how the analysis is done. What is the overlap and what can be covered in the most efficient manner. That analysis is usually what drives a large amount of decision making and contingency planning. Both at the tactical and operational level.

If you mentally picture it as a sliding ruler, with risk on the X axis. What covers you at the higher ends of risk, still covers you at the lower ends of risk. Its finding the efficiency point that's the key.

I would not say best or worse. I would say consistent. In all things I try to achieve consistency in performance. Ill caveat that to say, consistency, in the worst conditions.

[mmc45414]

The video was labeled as Cartel Assassins, these poor dudes were assassinated by an overwhelming force that was sent to murder them, not a domestic US defensive gun use.

After forty five years of pistol shooting, including being very diligent about doing it weekly for about the last ten, I am probably to the point where I should bicycle every Sunday instead of going shooting. I could get better (especially weak hand) but the realistic potential for me getting killed because of a lack of pistol shooting skills is going to be pretty low. But I am not a Mexican cop, probably the most realistic training for a Mexican cop would be to learn a skill that doesn't involve being a Mexican cop.

[KEW8338]

The video was labeled as Cartel Assassins, these poor dudes were assassinated by an overwhelming force that was sent to murder them, not a domestic US defensive gun use.

After forty five years of pistol shooting, including being very diligent about doing it weekly for about the last ten, I am probably to the point where I should bicycle every Sunday instead of going shooting. I could get better (especially weak hand) but the realistic potential for me getting killed because of a lack of pistol shooting skills is going to be pretty low. But I am not a Mexican cop, probably the most realistic training for a Mexican cop would be to learn a skill that doesn't involve being a Mexican cop.

Hence why I am discussing MLCOA vs MDCOA.... A domestic US defensive handgun use is likely the MLCOA, in terms of a shooting problem.

As a simpler example New Yorkl (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/newsalerts/video-2164968/Video-Shocking-moment-masked-gunman-shoot-man-broad-daylight.html)

[Totem Polar]

I think there are also a great deal of ML & MD disparity, diagnosed or undiagnosed. From the outside looking in, it seems like the current craze is full on medkits, fixed blade knives, pistol reloads etc (this would be taking equipment to the MDCOA side of the spectrum), while things like fitness or mindset are left at the MLCOA side of the spectrum.

For sure. It’s a lot easier to buy celox gauze and that cool new reverse edge blade than it is to skip lunch 4x weekly to knock out 150 pushups, 50 weighted pull ups, and a bunch of burpees, kettle bell swings, ab work and/or a quick run. Or re-read a good mindset book.

[psalms144.1]

Most dangerous. I FUCKING hate the "most likely" thought process. If I had a dime for every non-shooting, fat, tactics blind Cleetus that told me that any shooting past 3 yards was over kill, 'cuz da EFF BEE EYE data shows "3 rounds, at 3 yards, in 3 seconds" as the average gunfight, I'd have retired a long, long time ago. And, as a full time Federal LE firearms instructor, the OVERWHELMING majority of those Cleetii were full time, sworn law enforcement officers with full arrest powers, who occasionally carried a gun when forced to do so.

I'm 100% with Giving Back - if you train all the time like your gunfight is going to involve a squad of Nazi frogmen with air support, your ability to respond appropriately to the crack head at the gas station will be characterized by "unconscious competence."

[PNWTO]

Most dangerous.

Great post. While not exactly germane to the OP I’ve had similar frustrations with dudes who think red dots are worthless “because I’ll never shoot that far” while ignoring all the other skills; and it’s no longer worth my time to try offer an example to their counter.


That does not really address the issue.

At the risk of brevity, how about “train like your life depends on it” and accept that there will be personal and organizational nuances to that training. I’m not sure anything objective or conclusive can be gained aside from don’t be a fatty.

[okie john]

I'm 100% with Giving Back - if you train all the time like your gunfight is going to involve a squad of Nazi frogmen with air support, your ability to respond appropriately to the crack head at the gas station will be characterized by "unconscious competence."

Sig line material, sir.


Okie John

[mmc45414]

Hence why I am discussing MLCOA vs MDCOA.... A domestic US defensive handgun use is likely the MLCOA, in terms of a shooting problem.

As a simpler example New Yorkl (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/newsalerts/video-2164968/Video-Shocking-moment-masked-gunman-shoot-man-broad-daylight.html)

I may be tracking better on what I think is the intent of your post, at what point does a person call their skills "good enough"?

In my case, I am just a suburban schumk that likes to shoot. The upside is I have the financial ability to go try and get better every week, but I am doing it because it is fun. Those poor Mexican cops don't have accesses to much of what they need (time, money, ammo, training) to get good enough to survive a deal like that. Had seen the NYC deal, hard to feel sorry for the rival gang (organized crime) leader, but that might have been something potentially surmountable, depending on if you got ahead of the curve at all, or where the first few 22LRs landed.

[JDD]

I think re-reading Sean’s and Rob’s posts pretty much sums it up.

Although for a personal addition will say I have put much more emphasis on edged weapons and combatives the past few years. My “worst COA” is also my reality: can’t carry a firearm at work and that’s also the time when I frequently meet and engage with strangers. I also happen to be solo and in remote areas most of that time. So MUC, SPEAR, blades, BJJ, and boxing are the priorities. Dry fire a few times a week and go to range enough to maintain a baseline standard with firearms.

Lastly, Defoor has a nice little “priority” list I try to adhere to:

Mindset

Fitness

Tactics

Equipment

I like the priority list, although I have increasingly been focusing on what equipment is physically on me (or the various first response folks under my operational control) at all times.

It does not matter if I have a full hi-pro setup in a ready room 20 yards down the hall, if I walked out to deal with the angry person in the other room with just the stuff that is on my body. If the situation breaks bad from there, I get to run what I brung. Same with while I am driving, or while I am at the restaurant, or any number of situations that I have a response bag full of goodies - but retrieving the bag is not practical on the timeline I need something from it.

My point is not that I need to carry a backpack load of stuff on my body, but that I do need to be mindful of what I am actually carrying on my body, and how to maximize the utility of that equipment.

[TGS]

I think there's a misunderstanding in this thread between identifying and planning for a most likely enemy course of action and enemy's most dangerous course of action.

Identifying and planning for most likely does not mean that you're ignoring most dangerous or being lazy, and only planning for most dangerous does not necessarily ensure that you are effectively addressing the most likely enemy course of action; the two threats could be entirely different in how they are manifested and executed.

[JDD]

I think there's a misunderstanding in this thread between identifying and planning for a most likely enemy course of action and enemy's most dangerous course of action.

Identifying and planning for most likely does not mean that you're ignoring most dangerous or being lazy, and only planning for most dangerous does not necessarily ensure that you are effectively addressing the most likely enemy course of action; the two threats could be entirely different in how they are manifested and executed.

I agree.

As someone who has spent a substantial amount of time planning around response to MDCOA attacks, the preparation and planning considerations beyond the most basic fundamental skills are substantially different from MLCOA situations.

Target ID, sight alignment, trigger control; along with my ability to move and communicate don't change if I am aiming at a terrorist assaulting my compound as part of a team, or the proverbial 3am crackhead in the parking lot. The crackhead scenario though, does not require most of the "emergency preparedness management" planning that I have to do around the MDCOA style incidents. In fact, I would extend that to say preparations for worst case scenarios (mostly involving planning and liaison type meetings and response drills) cut into the time that I could spend making myself a more proficient individual responder.

[TGS]

In fact, I would extend that to say preparations for worst case scenarios (mostly involving planning and liaison type meetings and response drills) cut into the time that I could spend making myself a more proficient individual responder.

I can even go one step further and explain to you how some of our preps for EMDCOA can not just detract from our preparation for EMLCOA, but actually make our EMLCOA more probable, though I think it's a highside conversation on the details.

[KEW8338]

I can even go one step further and explain to you how some of our preps for EMDCOA can not just detract from our preparation for EMLCOA, but actually make our EMLCOA more probable, though I think it's a highside conversation on the details.

Isn't that a good thing?

[TGS]

Isn't that a good thing?

Is making yourself more likely to get hit by an IED a good thing?

[KEW8338]

Is making yourself more likely to get hit by an IED a good thing?

If there is an option for no ENCOA and your job is to avoid contact, then that would be the preferred option.

But that's counter productive to the process. Because you are now planning for no contact....

If you are going to get in contact. The MLCOA is preferred to MDCOA

[TGS]

If there is an option for no ENCOA and your job is to avoid contact, then that would be the preferred option.

But that's counter productive to the process. Because you are now planning for no contact....

If you are going to get in contact. The MLCOA is preferred to MDCOA

Mission drives <insert topic here>

My mission is to keep people safe in the conduct of their duties.....to avoid contact.

Making contact more likely than it needs to be is not advantageous to that mission.

[Wake27]

If there is an option for no ENCOA and your job is to avoid contact, then that would be the preferred option.

But that's counter productive to the process. Because you are now planning for no contact....

If you are going to get in contact. The MLCOA is preferred to MDCOA

If all you do is train for most dangerous, which you see as multiple attackers and then subsequently only shoot the VTAC 1-5, that becomes a problem if most likely is one tweaker with a knife and you burn down the civilians on either side of him.


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[KEW8338]

If all you do is train for most dangerous, which you see as multiple attackers and then subsequently only shoot the VTAC 1-5, that becomes a problem if most likely is one tweaker with a knife and you burn down the civilians on either side of him.


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Given that's a mechanics and gun handling drill. Not a method of engagement....

Planning for, doesn't necessitate the force I apply in the situation as presented.

[Wake27]

Given that's a mechanics and gun handling drill. Not a method of engagement....

Planning for, doesn't necessitate the force I apply in the situation as presented.

It can for some people. I’m not sure about you, but I’ve definitely seen people jump into a reload or immediate action drill that wasn’t necessary at the time because they were working on that a lot while dry firing recently.

In a similar vein, Chuck P was talking about a video of a shooting and brought up the importance of assessing your shots because head shots tend to give a certain outcome that torso shots do not. If your MD is that it takes numerous shots to drop someone, and that’s all you train for but somehow score a headshot in a real situation, you very well may be sending multiple rounds at a target that’s no longer there and therefore, are just erratically sending follow up shots.

It all follows the same train of thought, and what I believe your OP was directed at. MD and ML will very rarely be handled the same so if you’re training for one, you may not be training for the other and in some instances, you may be training against it. But that does not mean that ML becoming even more likely because of your steps to prevent MD is a good thing.

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[JDD]

Isn't that a good thing?

Its a situational call.

If MDCOA involves a possible green-on-blue component, you may reduce the access/involvement/proximity of "green" to mitigate; trading against the increased risk that "green" will not be as effective during a more likely incident involving "red".

I am not an operatour, roughly 95% of my planning is reaction to X. I don't get to pick what scenario gets thrown at me, I have to balance the resources available to me against potential events. Given the choice, of course I would prefer to have something other than the literal most dangerous course of enemy action. I would wager this pertains to the majority of folks who are not involved in direct kinetic assault.

[Wake27]

The other important part to this is a true analysis of ML and MD and something that I bet a lot of armed Americans fail at. Big army even fails at it pretty often because the general trend is to just pick some really bad shit. MD still needs to have some component of likeliness and not just technically possible.

Then, you have to tie that analysis to you or your organization, and the specific strengths and weaknesses. Maybe the initial thought is that MD is being cornered by three guys with knives or blunt weapons because there’s a trend of that in your city and three on one is never good. But on further analysis of your skills, MD is really the lone gunman with a rifle in King Soopers because he’s thirty yards away and you run that VTAC 1-5 all the time but never shoot past 10m.


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[TGS]

Tell me about it, Wake27

The "most likely threat" quoted by a lot of people in my agency is consistently, "vehicular accident". Which isn't false, but it's not a threat/hostile action. It's a self-evident overhead risk, and a cop-out to putting in thought/planning because you're fucking tired, have an early start, and want to get the bullshit paperwork over with so some muckety-muck supervisor who doesn't even know where his gun is can check a box that his team is prepared.

See the Tongo Tongo ambush AAR, and the Army scolding itself for forcing its troops to perform onerous paperwork which causes humans to shut-down, cut-and-paste, and miss the big picture or finer details.

Exact same shit happening, we just don't wear uniforms. That was super prevalent on my last tour, thankfully this one we generally dispense with the retardery.

[TGS]

Tell me about it, Wake27

The "most likely threat" quoted by a lot of people in my agency is consistently, "vehicular accident". Which isn't false, but it's not a threat/hostile action. It's a self-evident overhead risk, and a cop-out to putting in thought/planning because you're fucking tired, have an early start, and want to get the bullshit paperwork over with so some muckety-muck supervisor who doesn't even know where his gun is can check a box that his team is prepared.

See the Tongo Tongo ambush AAR, and the Army scolding itself for forcing its troops to perform onerous paperwork which causes humans to shut-down, cut-and-paste, and miss the big picture or finer details.

Exact same shit happening, we just don't wear uniforms. That was super prevalent on my last tour, thankfully this one we generally dispense with the retardery.

[KEW8338]

It can for some people. I’m not sure about you, but I’ve definitely seen people jump into a reload or immediate action drill that wasn’t necessary at the time because they were working on that a lot while dry firing recently.

I have witnessed that too. That is a reflection of shitty training or not being mentally engaged.


In a similar vein, Chuck P was talking about a video of a shooting and brought up the importance of assessing your shots because head shots tend to give a certain outcome that torso shots do not. If your MD is that it takes numerous shots to drop someone, and that’s all you train for but somehow score a headshot in a real situation, you very well may be sending multiple rounds at a target that’s no longer there and therefore, are just erratically sending follow up shots.

Again, I would consider that poorly trained. Regardless of ML/MD. Shooting into the space, a guy was, but isnt, because he dropped, from an unintentional headshot is somewhat poor form.


It all follows the same train of thought, and what I believe your OP was directed at. MD and ML will very rarely be handled the same so if you’re training for one, you may not be training for the other and in some instances, you may be training against it. But that does not mean that ML becoming even more likely because of your steps to prevent MD is a good thing.

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Yes, unless you can tea it up the ML and MD are normally handled differently. MD is going to have a higher degree of complexity and have increased force requirements. The ability to ramp up is far harder than the ability to ramp down.

As a terrible analogy with math. If you can do algebra. You can probably do addition.

[KEW8338]

The other important part to this is a true analysis of ML and MD and something that I bet a lot of armed Americans fail at. Big army even fails at it pretty often because the general trend is to just pick some really bad shit. MD still needs to have some component of likeliness and not just technically possible.

Then, you have to tie that analysis to you or your organization, and the specific strengths and weaknesses. Maybe the initial thought is that MD is being cornered by three guys with knives or blunt weapons because there’s a trend of that in your city and three on one is never good. But on further analysis of your skills, MD is really the lone gunman with a rifle in King Soopers because he’s thirty yards away and you run that VTAC 1-5 all the time but never shoot past 10m.


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What percentage of likeliness does it take?

ML/MD is absolutely reflective of resources, capabilities etc. Which I will circle around to the guys who were quote the "priorities" (gear, mindset etc) Your gear reflects MD, your mindset is a soft ML, your fitness is a hope for the best. So if you use those priorities, to cross level yourself, how does that rack and stack.

[KEW8338]

Tell me about it, Wake27

The "most likely threat" quoted by a lot of people in my agency is consistently, "vehicular accident". Which isn't false, but it's not a threat/hostile action. It's a self-evident overhead risk, and a cop-out to putting in thought/planning because you're fucking tired, have an early start, and want to get the bullshit paperwork over with so some muckety-muck supervisor who doesn't even know where his gun is can check a box that his team is prepared.

See the Tongo Tongo ambush AAR, and the Army scolding itself for forcing its troops to perform onerous paperwork which causes humans to shut-down, cut-and-paste, and miss the big picture or finer details.

Exact same shit happening, we just don't wear uniforms. That was super prevalent on my last tour, thankfully this one we generally dispense with the retardery.

Might not be a threat from hostile action. But that would 100% impact mission accomplishment.

If your job is what I am guessing, the fact your biggest threat is not enemy centric, indicative you are doing your job right?

[Wake27]

What percentage of likeliness does it take?

ML/MD is absolutely reflective of resources, capabilities etc. Which I will circle around to the guys who were quote the "priorities" (gear, mindset etc) Your gear reflects MD, your mindset is a soft ML, your fitness is a hope for the best. So if you use those priorities, to cross level yourself, how does that rack and stack.

The best tactical instructor I’ve had told us that your plan is based around ML, your contingencies are based off of MD. I don’t know what the right percentage is but I think it’s safe to say over 50 - something around 70/30 or 60/40 sounds safe but at the same time, I’m not dedicated enough to actually log those percentages so at this point, it’s just a mental exercise.

As far as right priorities, I fully believe that skill and experience should be number one. I have no idea how to prioritize the rest. Life is about balance, you need all of it to be successful in a shitty situation. I 100% am lacking in skill and experience in many ways and have applied the equipment bandaid to compensate. Not the best decision, but it’s easy and better than nothing.


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[Odin Bravo One]

This horse isn’t dead yet? Fuck me.

[Suvorov]

So as a former S-2 who is seeing MDCOA and MLCOA thrown around like doobies at a DNC or BLM convention - I wonder how many here have done a thorough IPB in accordance with ATP 2-01.3 (FM 34-130 for us old farts)?

Give me an RFI if you need links to the above mentioned publications.....

[Wake27]

So as a former S-2 who is seeing MDCOA and MLCOA thrown around like doobies at a DNC or BLM convention - I wonder how many here have done a thorough IPB in accordance with ATP 2-01.3 (FM 34-130 for us old farts)?

Give me an RFI if you need links to the above mentioned publications.....

Probably very few since it’s the 2’s job...


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[Suvorov]

Probably very few since it’s the 2’s job...


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Well crap, I better get to work.......

[Wake27]

Well crap, I better get to work.......

That probably came off a little short, I more meant that hopefully it doesn’t take someone doing a full IPB to have a functional understanding of ML and MD within the context of this discussion. Though I do find them super interesting and fully support it. Sadly I think the bulk of the ones I’ve seen have been done by none MI personnel and they tend to suck.


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[TGS]

Might not be a threat from hostile action. But that would 100% impact mission accomplishment.

So is tripping over your own feet when walking, but it's not something that needs to be said. It's an overhead risk you assume every time you get out of bed.

For example, if Wake27 is giving a brief for a convoy movement to his troops, he can mention how high the risk for a traffic accident is along a certain route during the execution segment, annotate traffic specific guidance to reduce the risk of an accident and even end the mission brief with a note about safe driving, but that doesn't mean it should be listed as EMLCOA, since it's categorically not a violent action that you're trying to hedge against.


If your job is what I am guessing, the fact your biggest threat is not enemy centric, indicative you are doing your job right?

My biggest threat is centric on hostile actors. I don't know what you're getting at.

[Suvorov]

That probably came off a little short, I more meant that hopefully it doesn’t take someone doing a full IPB to have a functional understanding of ML and MD within the context of this discussion. Though I do find them super interesting and fully support it. Sadly I think the bulk of the ones I’ve seen have been done by none MI personnel and they tend to suck.


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Well it will probably not help my cause, but I wasn’t branched MI, just thrown into the position as my last name was more similar to the threat than most of my fellow officers, plus I am a nerd.

All that said and while my post was meant in jest - I do think that everyone should conduct a basic IPB for themselves.

[Wake27]

So is tripping over your own feet when walking, but it's not something that needs to be said. It's an overhead risk you assume every time you get out of bed.

For example, if Wake27 is giving a brief for a convoy movement to his troops, he can mention how high the risk for a traffic accident is along a certain route during the execution segment, annotate traffic specific guidance to reduce the risk of an accident and even end the mission brief with a note about safe driving, but that doesn't mean it should be listed as EMLCOA, since it's categorically not a violent action that you're trying to hedge against.



My biggest threat is centric on hostile actors. I don't know what you're getting at.

Agreed, threat analysis and risk management are not one in the same. Most of what I do is low threat and low risk, but one is typically only expressed when the other is absent or negligible. If there’s a legit enemy threat, I’m not wasting near as much (if any) time on risk management - I see the latter as basic adult responsibilities anyways.


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[Jeff22]

I was enjoying looking up all the acronyms that were being tossed around in this discussion