Tornado Season 2021

[Caballoflaco]

It looks like Dixie Alley is going to have a rough day and night. The NWS doesn’t often issue high risk warnings, I’m just shy of forty and I think there have only been three or four issued in my entire life for my area. We can pretty much be guaranteed a few large and long track tornadoes through tonight. Hopefully everyone on here in the affected area has a plan and stays safe.


68962

[fatdog]

Already battened down the hatches last night, good luck. Its coming and hitting somewhere around here. I predict James Spann (our famous local TV weatherman) at least in shirt sleeves and no tie before the night is over.

68965

[Jim Watson]

NW Alabama reporting:
Lots of thunder and lightning with rain, not much wind.
Second fire brigade headed up the main drag in the past hour.

[kwb377]

Hoping this won't be a repeat (or anywhere close) to 4/27/11. :(

[farscott]

Tonight is not looking good. When the Storm Prediction Center says there is a "moderate" chance of severe weather, our experience has been we take a pounding.

[rd62]

Central SC here. We are supposed to get this storm system tomorrow.

[Hambo]

Well that sucks. I hope for the best for all of you.

[Caballoflaco]

James Spann is a national treasure, just info, no bullshit and can name off little restaurant and churches off the top of his head to help people who can’t read maps figure out where storms are.

We’ve got like 4 different confirmed tornados on the ground throughout the state right now. So, like Spann says now is the time to respect the [warning] polygon.

[LOKNLOD]

Good luck down there, from Ternader Alley up here! We had some pop up last night too. Ya’ll be safe!

[kwb377]

So, like Spann says now is the time to respect the [warning] polygon.

Second polygon of the evening so far for us. One rotating storm (not on ground) passed about a mile north an hour ago, second one (possible tornado on ground) just passed about a mile south of us.

And this isn't even the worst line of storms scheduled for us this evening.

[Caballoflaco]

Second polygon of the evening so far for us. One rotating storm (not on ground) passed about a mile north an hour ago, second one (possible tornado on ground) just passed about a mile south of us.

And this isn't even the worst line of storms scheduled for us this evening.

Glad you guys didn’t get hit.

It looks like we got kinda lucky on this first round with the morning rain lowering temps and limiting the size and strength of these storms so far (not that it matters for people whose homes have gotten hit) and we haven’t seen any of the big long track storms yet.

Now we get to wait and see what happens next. There’s still quite a while to go.

[blues]

Keep your heads down, fellas.

[pangloss]

The weather here (central MS) wasn't nearly as bad as expected. Thunder, lightening, and rain, but no wind. All is calm now, thankfully.

Sent from my moto e5 cruise using Tapatalk

[fatdog]

Dodged the worst in my AO, not as bad as they had forecast. The line cleared much sooner than they expected.

[Caballoflaco]

I’m going to bring this one back up so that our Mississippi Tennessee and Alabama folks who might not have caugtht the weather will just know to be weather aware today.

Last weeks system dropped 25 confirmed tornadoes, but most of them were fairly weak, in less populated areas and short tracked. The set up today is looking like it could possibly be worse especially for areas north of 20/59.

Be safe folks, and have a way to get warnings.

[Caballoflaco]

First warned storm of the day in SW AL. It’s gonna be a long day

[farscott]

The fact that there is a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) declared for the southeast means being weather aware is a big deal today.

[blues]

The fact that there is a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) declared for the southeast means being weather aware is a big deal today.

We're getting a lot of thunder in the area moving in...dog is not thrilled.

[Caballoflaco]

The fact that there is a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) declared for the southeast means being weather aware is a big deal today.

A tornado just went two miles south of me through one of the most densely populated areas of the state:(


And there’s a bunch more weather to come..... fuck. We’ll have to see develops with the storms still in Mississippi.

[blues]

Just got home from being sent away from the Covid vaccine site due to a tornado warning for my area. Guess I'll have to reschedule.

[Caballoflaco]

Just got home from being sent away from the Covid vaccine site due to a tornado warning for my area. Guess I'll have to reschedule.

Well that’s no bueno.

It does look like the dynamics for bad weather have expanded a little further north and east than they were forecasting last night.

[farscott]

My wife told me meteorologist James Spann was live on the air today when his home was hit by a tornado. He is still live on the air.

[blues]

My wife told me meteorologist James Spann was live on the air today when his home was hit by a tornado. He is still live on the air.

Guess it's better than being live "in" the air.

[Hambo]

Holy fuck, guys. I wish there was more I could do than to say 'stay safe'.

[blues]

Well that’s no bueno.

It does look like the dynamics for bad weather have expanded a little further north and east than they were forecasting last night.

We're getting a lot of strikes in the general area.

Called the county health dept. and they said I should be able to get the 2nd vaccine pretty soon, as in within a few days once they reassemble the troops and figure out what's what.

[Crazy Dane]

It got sporty up here on the Fork. Tornado tracker showed one passing within seeing distance from my house, not that you could through the torrential down pour and blinding lightening flashes. I haven't seen that much electricity up here in a long time.

[blues]

It got sporty up here on the Fork. Tornado tracker showed one passing within seeing distance from my house, not that you could through the torrential down pour and blinding lightening flashes. I haven't seen that much electricity up here in a long time.

Glad you're okay, neighbor. I got turned around at Carr's Hill Baptist by TCSO and EMS when going for my 3PM C-19 appointment.

[pangloss]

Looks like all the nasty weather is to the northeast of me. I'm thankful to miss this round and sorry that anyone has to deal with it.

Sent from my moto e5 cruise using Tapatalk

[Caballoflaco]

Looks like all the nasty weather is to the northeast of me. I'm thankful to miss this round and sorry that anyone has to deal with it.

Sent from my moto e5 cruise using Tapatalk

You guys in Mississippi are instigating all this with your unstable Mississippi air....:p

And here’s two more that are likely to go through the Birmingham metro if they don’t die out.

69345

[Caballoflaco]

It got sporty up here on the Fork. Tornado tracker showed one passing within seeing distance from my house, not that you could through the torrential down pour and blinding lightening flashes. I haven't seen that much electricity up here in a long time.

Glad it missed you.

I’ll be honest I had on motorcycle pants with a jacket and helmet nearby when the one passed south of me. I once heard James Spann talk about how a lot of tornado victims basically have all their skin sandblasted off by debris and the mental image kinda stuck with me.

[Crazy Dane]

Glad you're okay, neighbor. I got turned around at Carr's Hill Baptist by TCSO and EMS when going for my 3PM C-19 appointment.


Thanks. That was the tornado warning that come by here that sent you home. We got more coming. It may be a long and interesting night.

I spoke with a county employee yesterday and they are looking to set up additional vacs sights. May or may not happen but they are trying.

[Caballoflaco]

Holy fuck, guys. I wish there was more I could do than to say 'stay safe'.

Thanks, but that’s all any of us can really do at the moment.

[blues]

Thanks. That was the tornado warning that come by here that sent you home. We got more coming. It may be a long and interesting night.

I spoke with a county employee yesterday and they are looking to set up additional vacs sights. May or may not happen but they are trying.

Just got an email to show up between 8.30 and 1 tomorrow for the 2nd shot.

The light show is back upon us now.

[Caballoflaco]

From today, but not mine. Twins...

69346

[pangloss]

You guys in Mississippi are instigating all this with your unstable Mississippi air....:p

It's all those crazy people up in north Mississippi! Don't blame me!

[TheNewbie]

I hate the suffering these storms cause.


Still, there is no adrenaline rush like storm chasing, for me. 15 years ago I worked for a TV station in production, and the weather guys got me into storm chasing. It’s been years since I’ve done it, and I forgot most of what I knew. Plus it was getting stupid crowded out there with other chasers. Fond memories of exciting times.


There was always an element of guilt because as exciting as the storms are, they often cause suffering. So as thrilling as it was, I would trade no excitement for no suffering.

Thankfully I never witnessed serious destruction of people’s lives from the storms.

[Greg]

From today, but not mine. Twins...

69346

Wow!

Stay safe everyone in the path!

[Jim Watson]

***NEWS RELEASE***
A Florence Police Officer was struck by lightning while putting out barricades at the intersection of Chisholm Rd and Gresham Rd. Other Florence Police Officers provided immediate first aid and transported him to NAMC where he is being monitored. He is conscious and responsive at this time.

[Caballoflaco]

No warnings in AL at the moment, but there’s still fuel in the atmosphere and it isn finished yet....

[Borderland]

Ho Lee Fuk. We just have earth quakes here. My dad used to live in TX and I would watch the live tornado tracker on the TV. I ask him one time if it bothered him that there were so many tornadoes in the area. "Nope, happens every spring. Nothing to worry about because the chances one will hit you are next to zero". A tornado ripped thru the small town where he lived in 1938 and killed 14 people. He wasn't there. I guess those are pretty good odds since nobody has been killed there since 1938.

I was in a tornado east of Denver on I-70 once. Sought shelter under an overpass. Wind was probably 100 mph plus because it was bending those big signs over on the highway. Not sure exactly how close it was because I couldn't see 100 ft with the rain. Got into Denver and they reported it touching down where I was at the time. Some scary shit. Made it thru.


Five people have been killed, several were injured and others are missing after a tornado struck in Calhoun County, Alabama, on Thursday afternoon, according to multiple media reports.

Four of the Calhoun County deaths were in Ohatchee, Alabama, including a family of three, according to reporter Andrew Donley.

[Caballoflaco]

This is from the grinder that was down for over 100 miles to our south. The fact all those trees are bent in the same direction makes me think that was just from the rear flank down draft and not the actual tornado.

69356

So far there’s only 5 confirmed deaths, but I imagine that number is going to climb as they make it into the worst hits areas.

fatdog did you guys make it through ok?

[blues]

Just got internet back...

[Caballoflaco]

There’s a monster that’s making its way across the southern part of the ATL metro at night right now. :(

[farscott]

There’s a monster that’s making its way across the southern part of the ATL metro at night right now. :(

Yesterday's storms were bad. We were fortunate enough to come through unscathed, but the areas to the south of us took at least one EF-3. After a near miss from an EF-3 damaged our home in 2014, I have been a bit more apprehensive about tornados.

[Caballoflaco]

Yesterday's storms were bad. We were fortunate enough to come through unscathed, but the areas to the south of us took at least one EF-3. After a near miss from an EF-3 damaged our home in 2014, I have been a bit more apprehensive about tornados.

Glad y’all are ok. It kicked off a little later for y’all than they were predicting.

After two high risk weeks in a row that were less productive than predicted for MS and N. AL I’m afraid people might not take things as seriously next time. (This isn’t blaming the meteorologists, they’re doing the best they can with our current technology. Remember when county wide tornado warnings were a thing)


Hopefully our TN and GA folks made it through ok. That storm that went through south of Atlanta was bad, and Tennessee had a couple bad ones too.

[ASH556]

We're all good here, nothing of note. Seems the storm went south of us.

Still, a very poor night sleep for me. There's only one thing in this world that I'm afraid of and it's wind. You can't fight it, shoot it, avoid it. It just comes for you, suddenly and there's nothing you can do. I've struggled with it all my life and wish I knew a way to get past it. I can put on a brave face, it doesn't paralyze me, but inside I am absolutely terrified.

[Caballoflaco]

Here’s something worth reading for all of our southern members from a meteorologist up @farsccott ‘s way. It looks like it’s going to be a long spring down here severe weather wise.


https://www.tnvalleyweather.com/post/la-niña-check-up-and-what-it-may-mean-for-the-next-few-months-ahead


local area digging in our region here for past seasons where a significantly -PDO, a moderate or stronger La Niña, and a positive TNI phase were all in place simultaneously. I used a PDO threshold of -1.5 (November of this year is already down to -1.77 as we talked about in the 2020 severe thread), an ENSO peak threshold of -1.0 (we've already hit -1.2 as a trimonthly peak, and weekly readings have been lower) and then a positive TNI number (ENSO 4 is already colder than ENSO 1+2, making the TNI now positive, and that will only increase in magnitude). I also only looked for first-year cold ENSO events because, as we are seeing now, these are less prone to the subtropical ridge dominating the weather all winter. That is an important distinction that has to be taken into consideration. These are the seasons, since 1950, where all those things were in place simultaneously:

2010-2011, 2007-2008, 1998-1999, 1973-1974, 1970-1971, 1955-1956

Every. Single. One. of those... not one single failure... had at least one F4+ tornado specifically in the area of AL/MS/TN between I-20/U.S. 80 and I-40 (JAN-MGM to BNA). THERE WAS NOT ONE SINGLE FAILURE. And even in cool seasons where the numbers were close but didn't quite meet those specific thresholds, there were STILL violent tornadoes in the spring in that specific area of AL/MS/TN. It has been almost ten years since the northern half of Alabama has had an officially violent rated tornado, and it has been since 2008 since the southern TN counties of my viewing area have had one. With the exception of far west Alabama being clipped on 4/28/2014, it has been that long since the same area has had an SPC High Risk. With respect to both things there, we are in rather uncharted territory.

The current large scale pattern in place that continues to further assemble itself is what is in place when large scale bad things happen in Dixie Alley. It doesn't always mean they WILL happen every time a pattern similar to this is in place, but this seems to be the specific set of large scale conditions that are in place when major, bad events here do happen. This is the first time since 2010-2011 we have had the combination of a significant first-year Niña in place, a significant -PDO, a +TNI, and cool-season pattern suppression that is keeping the subtropical ridging from taking over early. By no remote stretch of the imagination am I calling for a repeat of 2011, 2008, 1974, 1932, or any other such event... but maybe I am saying that this might mean that the door isn't quite as locked shut for something like that as it would be in any other year with different large scale conditions in place.

[blues]

Damn, but that was a long night. Dog was not a happy girl.

Everything okay though and we didn't get hit directly by lightning or worse, so, all's well.

Even got my 2nd Covid vaccine about an hour and a half ago.

[farscott]

With the exception of far west Alabama being clipped on 4/28/2014, it has been that long since the same area has had an SPC High Risk.

That was the storm that damaged our home. As in broken window, bent doors and door frames, damaged roof, and destroyed fence. And it never was directly over our home; by most estimates it was a quarter mile away. It destroyed the homes directly under it.

[fatdog]

that monster long track last night that went from Meadowbrook all the way through Ohatchee and killed those folks passed less than two miles north of us, it left a mess. We only lost a couple of limbs, no big deal.

Two big outbreaks inside 8 days, been in the polygon 5 times between them, it has my full attention at this point.

[RoyGBiv]

Just sharing some weather-geek links I find useful. The first one is new, so, not much experience with it yet....

https://hdwx.tamu.edu/product-list/
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-99.99,32.97,3000/loc=-97.212,32.949

Of course, NWS provides lots of details... https://www.weather.gov/ (click the map for regional info)

If you work for an organization that has emergency response tasking (including TV weather reporting), NWS Chat is a real-time tool that connects emergency management with the regional weather service locations. When we spin up our local EOC for weather events, this is the second place we log into, after bringing up our local CASA radar. Real time information as it becomes known, either from NWS or from spotters reporting in to NWS via HAM or phone. NWS Chat is not open to the general public, only EM-type folks. https://nwschat.weather.gov/live/

CASA is not available everywhere, but if it's available in your AO, your EM should definitely make use of it.
There is a CASA phone app, but I've never used it. Can't say whether it's of any value.
http://www.casa.umass.edu/
http://www.casa.umass.edu/main/research/urbantestbed/


Best phone app for tracking severe weather is, IMO, RadarScope (https://www.dtn.com/radarscope-4-0/).
Absolutely worth the app price if you live where severe weather is a concern. There's also a Windows version.

[Caballoflaco]

Well, There’s tornados on the ground in east AR west TN and east Tx right now. And TN has already had one go through the middle of the state earlier today. You guys in the path of things stay safe, that includes N LA and Missippi while this band starts moving through.

Edited to not leave anyone out: There’s also two tornadic cells in southern IL headed towards IN.

[fatdog]

Too much rain in too short a period of time.

All 6 of the sluice gates at the damn near me are wide open this weekend.(Logan Martin)

I had a 120'+ pine tree let go at the roots this afternoon, took my back pasture fence and the powerlines with it. 3nd time I lost a big one to this cause in the last decade. They got the power back up, but I have some serious fence work ahead this week.

[Caballoflaco]

Our ArkLaTex members need to be weather aware this afternoon and tonight with the threat moving into MS a little later. First warning has already popped and it’s early in the life of this system.

If you’ve got family or friends who don’t pay attention just let ‘me know to be able to get a warning notification in a manner others than hearing sirens outdoors.

[RoyGBiv]

And here's an early read on Friday (afternoon) for East TX and parts East.

69876

[Caballoflaco]

Hope our members in MS are safe tonight, this afternoon. They’ve been getting slammed today by a system that wasn’t expected to be as productive as it turned out. Yazoo had this pass on the southeast side.


https://youtu.be/EQBQ9PMw1x4

[Caballoflaco]

Damn. Looks like Tupelo MS is taking a direct hit right now.

[farscott]

As of this writing, WSB-TV is reporting a tornado on the ground in Douglas County, GA, headed toward midtown Atlanta.

[Caballoflaco]

And there’s currently a storm producing a TOR that has entered the ATL metro in the last half hour. It had an impressive velocity scan and debris ball on radar for a minute there. This system has continually over-produced since last night.


ETA: Farscott beat me to it.

Tomorrow is looking like it might be a rough day as well for MS and AL.

[Caballoflaco]

The storm system that dropped a tornado near ATL this morning has continued to produce tornadoes into South Carolina this afternoon.

It’s looking like this is going to be a multi day outbreak with more storms initiating in east TX and AR tomorrow and spreading into the southeast tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of that front there remains the possibility of some isolated twistas for MS AL and GA if we get supercells that pop up ahead of the main line.

[RoyGBiv]

We're about an hour away from a TOR watch being issued here....
Beautiful sunny day here. 90'F. And a cold front approaching from the West.

Second round of supercells reportedly possible BEHIND the front, around 10PM in DFW area. Kind of unusual.

If you're in North Texas, stay weather aware through midnight.
East TX might be in the bullseye through morning.... See graphicast link below.

Area Forecast
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202105031832-KFWD-FXUS64-AFDFWD


AN ATYPICAL SETUP THIS EVENING WILL ALSO LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY, A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AFTER AROUND
10PM.

Graphicast: IIRC, this is a permalink to most current Graphicast.
https://www.weather.gov/fwd/

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image8.jpg?03720b6a251c8942518cde8f592b6c14

ETA#2 Convection increasing.... weather geek stuff...
https://www.weather.gov/fwd/convectiveparameters4panels#1

ETA #1: TOR Watch issued for N. Central TX
https://nwschat.weather.gov/vtec/#2021-O-NEW-KFWD-TO-A-0133/USCOMP-N0Q-202105032050

[Shotgun]

RoyGBiv Thank you. I can see the front rolling in to Dallas. Looks dark out west. Vehicles are under cover with threat of hail.

[TheNewbie]

Storms are firing up. We are at my parents house because we normally visit on Monday and they have a shelter.


After spending all day cleaning out my shop, breathing who knows what and sweating like a mad man, I really hope it doesn’t get blown away.

[Caballoflaco]

Stay safe Newbie. The worst looking TX storm at the moment is that cell that’s north of Blum and South of Rio Vista.
Watching some live-streams there’s a decent wall cloud, but nothing on the ground right now on this storm.

As of right now we have active TOR warnings in Texas Oklahoma Illinois and Maryland

[Shotgun]

Under Tornado watch, but not even raining in N Dallas at the moment. Heavy rain came through about 7.

[RoyGBiv]

Fortunately a non event here (so far), but, lots of locals hit by hail and a few tornadoes, some ongoing still, to our South and East.

Stay safe out there folks.

[Caballoflaco]

Fortunately a non event here (so far), but, lots of locals hit by hail and a few tornadoes, some ongoing still, to our South and East.

Stay safe out there folks.

Seeing reports on twitter that a tornado on the ground crossed I-35 between Waxahachie and Foreston and caused some serious damage and did what tornadoes do to cars and trucks.:(

https://mobile.twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1389403900608978945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1389403900608978945%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

[RoyGBiv]

I think I mentioned this up thread, But, FWIW, Radarscope is my favorite app for tracking severe weather.
Worth the price for the paid version if you live in a place where weather can be fierce.

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/radarscope/id288419283

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/radarscope/id288419283

[RoyGBiv]

Seeing reports on twitter that a tornado on the ground crossed I-35 between Waxahachie and Foreston and caused some serious damage and did what tornadoes do to cars and trucks.:(

https://mobile.twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1389403900608978945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1389403900608978945%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Following that on the weather service feed (not public).
There's also some storms building again north of Abilene that may impact us later tonight.
Hoping this tracks north OF us.

#notoveryet (https://pistol-forum.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=notoveryet)

Stay weather aware.

[Caballoflaco]

I think I mentioned this up thread, But, FWIW, Radarscope is my favorite app for tracking severe weather.
Worth the price for the paid version if you live in a place where weather can be fierce.

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/radarscope/id288419283

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/radarscope/id288419283

I’ll second this recommendation. Our local TV mets also use the premium version as a backup/double verification system just in case something happens to the commercial radar feeds the station pays for.

[TheNewbie]

Stay safe Newbie. The worst looking TX storm at the moment is that cell that’s north of Blum and South of Rio Vista.
Watching some live-streams there’s a decent wall cloud, but nothing on the ground right now on this storm.

As of right now we have active TOR warnings in Texas Oklahoma Illinois and Maryland



It’s been uneventful so far, but there apparently is some ping pong ball size hail in the general area. We shall see what happens.


A tree got blown down in my yard, so that will be tomorrow’s project. Even luckier is that it’s where you’re likely to find poison ivy.

[OlongJohnson]

tecnu works on poison oak and ivy, in my experience. Take it in the shower as soon as you're done with possible exposure.

[theJanitor]

Hope you guys in the path of those tornadoes fared ok. I can’t imagine how it must’ve been. We’ve got hurricanes here, but generally a week to prep for their arrival

[Jared]

Hope you guys in the path of those tornadoes fared ok. I can’t imagine how it must’ve been. We’ve got hurricanes here, but generally a week to prep for their arrival

I was very blessed and fortunate the night of Dec 10 is what I’ll say for now. Place I work at is having a collection for victims in Kentucky. There are quite a few folks where I work that have friends and family “back home” in KY, so I’m glad to see the company make the gesture.

[Dog Guy]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-tornadoes-weather-releases-classification-170900193.html

"The tornado that sliced through Western Kentucky over the weekend, killing at least 77 and destroying thousands of homes and buildings, has been designated an EF4 by the National Weather Service.

An EF4 is a violent designation because it causes "Devastating damage. Well- constructed houses leveled; structures with weak foundation blown some distance; cars thrown; large missiles generated," according to NWS."

More at the link.