Poll: Nominee for Supreme Court Vacancy?

[DMF13]

The other thread seems to be mostly centered on whether a nominee will get a vote, and/or be confirmed.

I'd like to see opinions on who people think will get nominated, not who you want, but who you think is actually likely to be nominated, and why?

[DMF13]

I will start.

I think the nominee will be Lagoa.

1. Trump says it will be a woman (hence the four named choices in the poll).

2. She has broad appeal to "traditional" Republicans, having been appointed to State Court and the Federal courts, by Jeb Bush and George W. Bush, respectively, along with appeal to Trump supporters, having been appointed to the Fed courts again by Trump.

3. She has much more fed court experience than the other supposed front runner, Barrett.

4. When the Senate confirmed her in November 2019 she was confirmed 80-15. It will be tough for some of those Senators who had no problem with her prior lengthy Federal judicial history to say things have drastically changed in the last 10 months.

5. In contrast Barrett was confirmed 3 years ago with only 55 votes.

6. Florida is always usually a tough state for the Presidential race, with 29 Electors, and this year would appear to be the same tight race for those 29 votes. That pick might have the added benefit of picking up some more votes for Trump in Florida.

[Yung]

From a glance at Ballotpedia,

Barrett:


•2017-present: Judge, United States Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit
•2002-2017: Faculty, Notre Dame Law School
•2001-2002: John M. Olin Fellow, George Washington University School of Law
•1999-2001: Private practice, Washington, D.C.
•1998-1999: Law clerk, Hon. Antonin Scalia, Supreme Court of the United States
•1997-1998: Law clerk, Hon. Laurence H. Silberman, United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit


Lagoa:


•2019-present: Judge, U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit
•2019: Justice, Florida Supreme Court
•2006-2019: Judge, Florida Third District Court of Appeal •2019: Chief Judge
•2003-2006: Assistant U.S. attorney, U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida
•1992-2003: Private practice


Larsen:


•2017-present: Judge, United States Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit
•2015-2017: Justice, Michigan Supreme Court
•2003-2015: Lecturer and special counsel to the dean, University of Michigan School of Law
•2002-2003: Deputy assistant attorney general, office of legal counsel, U.S. Department of Justice
•1998-2002: Lecturer and special counsel to the dean, University of Michigan School of Law
•1997-1998: Visiting lecturer, Northwestern University Law School
•1995-1997: Private practice, Washington, D.C.
•1994-1995: Law clerk, Hon. Antonin Scalia, Supreme Court of the United States
•1993-1994: Law clerk, Hon. David Sentelle, United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit


Rushing:


•2019-present: Judge, United States Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit
•2011-2019: Attorney, Private practice
•2010-2011: Law clerk to Justice Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court of the United States
•2009-2010: Attorney, Private practice
•2008-2009: Law clerk to then-Chief Judge David Sentelle on the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit
•2007-2008: Law clerk to the Hon. Neil Gorsuch. At that time, Gorsuch was a judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit

[DMF13]

Yes, but which do you think will get the nomination, and why?

[DDTSGM]

Lagoa or Larsen.

[Yung]

Yes, but which do you think will get the nomination, and why?

Thanks for asking my opinion.

Honestly, it looks like though Barrett's had less time served, she's decided more high-profile cases.
https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/09/profile-of-a-potential-nominee-amy-coney-barrett/#more-296222

By comparison, while Lagoa certainly has a conservative track record, she seems to be less of a known quantity on big things outside of her written unanimous opinion on DeSantis firing Scott Israel, and I think it's possible her involvement with Amendment 4 when she was Chief Judge in Florida would be a short-term but crucial problem if she ended up being the replacement.

[revchuck38]

I think it’ll be Lagoa, based on her judicial experience and the fact that she’s Latina. The Democrats will have a hard time treating a “woman of color” the way they did the last two nominees. That said, I’d be happy with any of them.

[Guerrero]

Notorious ACB

Good track record, and has already stuck it to Feinstein during a hearing.

[Yung]

The Democrats will have a hard time treating a “woman of color” the way they did the last two nominees.

There's a chance that the Republicans are not going to bother with the farce of confirmation hearings at this point.

[fixer]

Barrett seems to be the only candidate for the nomination that I can find a published opinion regarding the 2A.

[revchuck38]

There's a chance that the Republicans are not going to bother with the farce of confirmation hearings at this point.

I can see the logic in that, since every Democrat will have his/her “NO” rubber stamp ready regardless of the nominee.

[the Schwartz]

I'd like to see Barrett as Ginsburg's replacement; looks like the prevailing winds are blowing that way, too.

Hopefully, the Republicans will minimize the drama that they can control by foregoing the circus side show that any hearing will most certainly become. There is nothing to be gained by allowing such a display to unfold.

[5pins]

I would have said Barrett but I think it will be Lagoa now for the reasons already stated.

[Clusterfrack]

Barrett seems to be the only candidate for the nomination that I can find a published opinion regarding the 2A.

Exactly. That's why I want her to be confirmed. This is our last, best chance of protecting the 2nd.

[luckyman]

I think it will be Lagoa; the draw of being able to rub all the liberal noses in the fact that he appointed a woman of color from a refugee family will be to great for Trump to resist.

[GyroF-16]

I think it will be Lagoa; the draw of being able to rub all the liberal noses in the fact that he appointed a woman of color from a refugee family will be to great for Trump to resist.

...and one that a majority of Democratic senators voted to confirm less than an year ago

[DMF13]

...and one that a majority of Democratic senators voted to confirm less than an year agoThe more I think about this, that fact about Lagoa also helps to "take the wind out of the sails," for some arguments to justify future "Court packing." Already, claims are being made that if Trump nominates, and the Senate confirms an "extremist" and "conservative activist," that will justify packing the Court.

Trump, and the Republicans in the Senate can point to the fact that so many Democrats supported Lagoa in November 2019, that they couldn't realistically be believed by saying they now find her to be an "extremist" or "conservative activist."

Then again, Republicans and Democrats both have shown that flip flopping on such issues is something both sides will often do. Compare opinions about filling the vacancy in 2016, to comments now, by people of both parties, and there are plenty of blatant contradictions.

[vcdgrips]

I stated Lagoa last fri night to some work buddies so I will stick to it. I fully recognize that ACB is being mentioned more and more as the front runner.

As per the CV extracts listed above without comment, clarification or point(s) to apparently be made, I would note Lagoa has actually practiced law and been a judge longer than any other candidate.
This is in stark contrast to the law clerking/academic pursuits of the other candidates.

I concur with those who have said she was approved 18-4 out of committee and 80-15 from the full senate with significant bi-partisan support less than a year ago such that it will be harder to oppose her relative to ACB.

[Josh Runkle]

I think it will be Barrett. I don’t think Trump’s actual goal is to get someone on the court before the election. I think his goal will be to get more votes in the election. He’ll get more votes by having the democrats attack a nominee for her religion.


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[CleverNickname]

A dark horse candidate emerges, Tedina Cruzette (https://babylonbee.com/news/new-unknown-female-judge-tedina-cruzette-emerges-as-possible-trump-supreme-court-pick).

In seriousness, ACB seems like the best of the list for originalist 2A views, so that's good enough for me.

[hufnagel]

The more I think about this, that fact about Lagoa also helps to "take the wind out of the sails," for some arguments to justify future "Court packing." Already, claims are being made that if Trump nominates, and the Senate confirms an "extremist" and "conservative activist," that will justify packing the Court.

Trump, and the Republicans in the Senate can point to the fact that so many Democrats supported Lagoa in November 2019, that they couldn't realistically be believed by saying they now find her to be an "extremist" or "conservative activist."

Then again, Republicans and Democrats both have shown that flip flopping on such issues is something both sides will often do. Compare opinions about filling the vacancy in 2016, to comments now, by people of both parties, and there are plenty of blatant contradictions.

Dems will want to pack the court regardless of who Trump picks.

"Extremist*" and "Conservative Activist*" ACB is the choice.

*is there proof that her rulings fit either of those adjectives?

[Kukuforguns]

Republican appointments to the Court have historically been much more likely to migrate to the left than the Left's appointments. The Federal Society has worked hard to identify and cultivate candidates who won't migrate (or will migrate less). ACB is at the top of the list for demonstrated stability. She is also at the top of the list for ability - she is incredibly bright (she has numerous recommendations from former teachers and colleagues, who all state she is a generational mind) and writes very well. I was rooting for her instead of J. Kavanaugh.

In addition, ACB is more photogenic than Lagoa - which totally matters to Pres. Trump.

On the other hand, since she is widely be reported as the front-runner, I think there is a significant possibility Pres. Trump will nominate another candidate just for the element of surprise/drama.

With respect to the fact that ACB's confirmation was closer than Lagoa's - do you really think Pres. Trump is afraid of a fight? Do you really think any Democrats would vote to confirm Lagoa? Do you really think any Republican would vote for Lagoa but not ACB? I come up with a big "no" to each of those questions.

Of course, everything I've just written is projection/justification. She is who I want as a Justice. She is an enormous supporter of individual rights.

[DMF13]

IHe’ll get more votes by having the democrats attack a nominee for her religion.

Lagoa is also Catholic.

[DMF13]

Dems will want to pack the court regardless of who Trump picks.

"Extremist*" and "Conservative Activist*" ACB is the choice.

*is there proof that her rulings fit either of those adjectives?
Regardless anyone who didn't vote for her Circuit Court nomination won't have to worry about being called out for switching opinions now. A bit thornier position for anyone who voted for Lagoa 10 months ago to justify voting against her 10 months later.

For all those talk about what Trump wants/likes, he might just as easily want to make a couple dozen Senators squirm over trying to attack someone they supported a mere 10 months ago.

[DMF13]

It appears the Vegas odds heavily favor Amy Comey Barrett, with Barbara Lagoa a distant second.

[Guerrero]

It appears the Vegas odds heavily favor Amy Comey Barrett, with Barbara Lagoa a distant second.

I was just about to ask that.

[Guerrero]

Democrats: 'Without Abortion, Women Might Have To Settle For Having 7 Kids And Sitting On The Highest Court In The Land' (https://babylonbee.com/news/democrats-without-abortion-women-might-have-to-settle-for-having-7-kids-and-sitting-on-the-highest-court-in-the-land)

https://babylonbee.com/img/articles/article-7079-1.jpg

[Guerrero]

Evangelical Leaders Anoint Amy Coney Barrett With Cup Of Chick Fil A Sauce (https://babylonbee.com/news/evangelical-leaders-anoint-amy-coney-barrett-with-cup-of-chick-fil-a-sauce)

https://babylonbee.com/img/articles/article-7081-1.jpg