James Althucher's thoughts on New York City

[Yung]

https://jamesaltucher.com/blog/nyc-is-dead-forever-heres-why/



And what would make you come back?

There won’t be business opportunities for years. Businesses move on. People move on. It will be cheaper for businesses to function more remotely and bandwidth is only getting faster.
Wait for events and conferences and even meetings and maybe even office spaces to start happening in virtual realities once everyone is spread out from midtown Manhattan to all over the country.
The quality of restaurants will start to go up in all the second- and then third-tier cities as talent and skill flow to the places that can quickly make use of them.
Ditto for cultural events.
And then people will ask, “Wait a second, I was paying over 16% in state and city taxes and these other states and cities have little to no taxes? And I don’t have to deal with all the other headaches of NYC?”
Because there are headaches in NYC. Lots of them. It’s just we sweep them under the table because so much else has been good there.
NYC has a $9 billion deficit. $1 billion more than the mayor thought it was going to have. How does a city pay back its debts? The main way is aid from the state. But the state deficit just went bonkers. Then is taxes. But if 900,000 estimated jobs are lost in NYC and tens of thousands of businesses, then that means less taxes unless taxes are raised.

(Revenue sources for NYC are all going down but the deficit is going up)

Next is tolls from the tunnels and bridges. But fewer people are commuting to work. Well, how about the city-owned colleges? Fewer people are returning to college. Well how about property taxes? More people defaulting on their properties.
What reason will people have to go back to NYC?
I love my life in NYC. I have friends all over NY. People I’ve known for decades. I could go out of my apartment and cross the street and there was my comedy club and I could go up onstage and perform. I could go a few minutes by Uber and meet with anyone or go play PingPong or go to a movie or go on a podcast and people traveling through could come on my podcast.
I could go out at night to my favorite restaurants and then see my favorite performers perform. I could go to the park and play chess, see friends. I could take advantage of all this wonderful city has to offer.

No more.

[Nephrology]

Slightly tangential, but I strongly suspect that professional conferences will immediately resume as normal in the post-COVID world. The Zoom equivalent does not serve the same purpose as the real thing (drinking with a bunch of other people who do what you do while traveling on your company's dime).

[Le Français]

The contrast between NYC on 12/23/2019 (my last visit pre-COVID, which featured throngs of people and Christmas festivities) and on 8/5/2020 (my latest visit, to do some knock-and-talks and serve warrants) was quite vivid. It’s a shell of its former self, to be sure.

[the Schwartz]

https://jamesaltucher.com/blog/nyc-is-dead-forever-heres-why/

Adding to the huge economic losses resulting from the pandemic and in effect adding insult to (economic) injury, reflects only upon the Democratic leadership allowing/making it happen. These large metropolitan centers run by Democratic leaders who claim that Trump is the devil himself (or express similar sentiments) and whose re-election to another POTUS term is the worst outcome that they can envision, they certainly seem to be doing all that they can to get the guy re-elected. :rolleyes:

Occurrences like this—

https://www.westernjournal.com/blm-invades-residential-neighborhood-demands-white-people-give-homes/


Another demonstrator says it’s time for residents to “open their wallet.”

And then the megaphone-possessor goes after white people again, telling them it’s time to give up their houses.

“Give black people back their homes!” she yells. “You’re sitting there comfortably — comfortable as f— as if they didn’t help gentrify this neighborhood! I used to live in this neighborhood … my family was pushed out, and you’re sitting up there having a good time with your other white friends!”

In another video, a protester can be heard saying, “All y’all white motherf—–s get the f— out of our neighborhood so we can go back to our s—.”

Another said, “Pay the fee! Open your purse!”

—don't help the cause out very much either.

[OlongJohnson]

The quality of restaurants will start to go up in all the second- and then third-tier cities as talent and skill flow to the places that can quickly make use of them.

What worries me about that is the potential to accelerate the export of leftism from places it made worth leaving.

[Suvorov]

What worries me about that is the potential to accelerate the export of leftism from places it made worth leaving.

That is the problem. I am constantly talking to people of late in the SF Bay Area who have had enough and are thinking about moving. The secondary effects of COVID has pushed them over the edge. Pretty much everything described in the OP's essay is happening in San Francisco. The problems is that very very few of these people hold moderate let alone conservative points of view, they do not have any awareness that the liberal policies and politicians they have supported throughout the years have created the very problems they are wanting to flee.

I really think that there needs to be some way for states like Idaho, Arizona, and Texas to make sure that refugee New Yorkers and Kalifornians know that they need to adopt the culture of their adopted state and not try to recreate the same failed utiopia that the fled from. How this can be done - I have no idea, but without it I fear the disease will spread.

[blues]

That is the problem. I am constantly talking to people of late in the SF Bay Area who have had enough and are thinking about moving. The secondary effects of COVID has pushed them over the edge. Pretty much everything described in the OP's essay is happening in San Francisco. The problems is that very very few of these people hold moderate let alone conservative points of view, they do not have any awareness that the liberal policies and politicians they have supported throughout the years have created the very problems they are wanting to flee.

I really think that there needs to be some way for states like Idaho, Arizona, and Texas to make sure that refugee New Yorkers and Kalifornians know that they need to adopt the culture of their adopted state and not try to recreate the same failed utiopia that the fled from. How this can be done - I have no idea, but without it I fear the disease will spread.

Well, there is nothing realistically that can be done. At least while America remains America.

What we can't afford to become is that which we most oppose. Then it is us hastening our own demise.

[Suvorov]

What we can't afford to become is that which we most oppose. Then it is us hastening our own demise.

Yep, damned if we do - damned if we don't. Who knows, maybe I am being to cynical and maybe the COVID fallout as well as the BLM/ANTIFA Insurrection has woken people from their unicorn fart infused mental slumber.

I guess we will know in November........

[blues]

Yep, damned if we do - damned if we don't. Who knows, maybe I am being to cynical and maybe the COVID fallout as well as the BLM/ANTIFA Insurrection has woken people from their unicorn fart infused mental slumber.

I guess we will know in November........

It would be a lot easier if the current occupant would stop stepping on his dick with some of his recent statements and pronouncements. My neck hurts from shaking my head.

[Suvorov]

It would be a lot easier if the current occupant would stop stepping on his dick with some of his recent statements and pronouncements. My neck hurts from shaking my head.

Yep. I do wish that man had a filter.

[CWM11B]

To all fleeing the NE and west coast: NC SUCKS. It is a horrible place to live. Dont even get off of I-95 to take a piss, it's that bad. Plus, we're full. Keep on trucking until you hit the FL line. Trust me. West Coasters, turn left or right at the TN line on 40. I say this with genuine concern for your well being. You'll hate it here and be miserable. Forewarned is fore armed
:cool:

[ccmdfd]

To all fleeing the NE and west coast: NC SUCKS. It is a horrible place to live. Dont even get off of I-95 to take a piss, it's that bad. Plus, we're full. Keep on trucking until you hit the FL line. Trust me. West Coasters, turn left or right at the TN line on 40. I say this with genuine concern for your well being. You'll hate it here and be miserable. Forewarned is fore armed
:cool:

Plus we have hurricanes and earthquakes.

[olstyn]

(drinking with a bunch of other people who do what you do while traveling on your company's dime).

Please tell me there's more to it than that. Otherwise, it's just straight-up wasteful. :(

[ccmdfd]

Please tell me there's more to it than that. Otherwise, it's just straight-up wasteful. :(

Well there's always the free ski trips, Broadway shows, Etc!

On a serious note:

I haven't been to a virtual conference yet, but I can certainly imagine downsides as opposed to regular conferences. At a real conference you can network with others, and you stand a better chance of actually sitting down with a SME and getting your questions answered.

[Nephrology]

Please tell me there's more to it than that. Otherwise, it's just straight-up wasteful. :(

Of course there is - it's all of the soft human interaction that cannot occur online, a lot of which does end up being productive. The drinking is just the natural extension of the same building of human relationships that catalyzes productive new thoughts and collaborations. It's the biggest thing missing in online "conferences." If I am going to digest medico/scientific information via my laptop, I generally prefer it be in the form of a written article and not a flash video or zoom call.


Well there's always the free ski trips, Broadway shows, Etc!

On a serious note:

I haven't been to a virtual conference yet, but I can certainly imagine downsides as opposed to regular conferences. At a real conference you can network with others, and you stand a better chance of actually sitting down with a SME and getting your questions answered.

Yes, very much this. Particularly as a trainee, forging these in person relationships are extremely important. Same reason ~1/3 of graduating MDs match to their home institution for residency - kicking the tires in person goes a long way.

[MichaelD]

To all fleeing the NE and west coast: NC SUCKS. It is a horrible place to live. Dont even get off of I-95 to take a piss, it's that bad. Plus, we're full. Keep on trucking until you hit the FL line. Trust me. West Coasters, turn left or right at the TN line on 40. I say this with genuine concern for your well being. You'll hate it here and be miserable. Forewarned is fore armed
:cool:Same goes for Utah... stop in Nevada if coming from California, or if coming from the east you might as well just stop in Colorado.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

The reason for an academic conference is to schmooze, make connections, hook up, see the book and equipment exhibits. schmooze the folks at the exhibits. Really no new breakthroughs at conferences anymore. A virtual conference, yawn. We have online journals now and preprints in many fields. The job aspect at conventions has collapsed as there are few jobs and preliminary interviews for those few are being done online

The associations made quite a buck from them. It will hit their revenue streams. NYC was a great town in its day. Today, it is failing. So many reasons, it's sad.

[5pins]

In West Virginia we don't have dentists. That should keep them out.

[Joe in PNG]

Heinlein's comment still stands:


“Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.

This is known as "bad luck.”

[mtnbkr]

Plus we have hurricanes and earthquakes.

And Durham, don't forget Durham.

Chris

[CWM11B]

Greensboro is currently giving Durham a run for the money. And little ol' High Point is 31 in the nation for per capita homicide right now. My burg is doing it's best to take a shot at the title as well.

[RJ]

To all fleeing the NE and west coast: NC SUCKS. It is a horrible place to live. Dont even get off of I-95 to take a piss, it's that bad. Plus, we're full. Keep on trucking until you hit the FL line. Trust me. West Coasters, turn left or right at the TN line on 40. I say this with genuine concern for your well being. You'll hate it here and be miserable. Forewarned is fore armed
:cool:

Look, Florida is no better. We have GIANT lizards who WILL EAT YOU ALIVE, crushing humidity and did I mention Hurricanes? Plus endless swamps FULL of swarming mosquitos and biting insects.

[Joe in PNG]

Look, Florida is no better. We have GIANT lizards who WILL EAT YOU ALIVE, crushing humidity and did I mention Hurricanes? Plus endless swamps FULL of swarming mosquitos and biting insects.

And Florida Man? It's not just media clickbait hype.

[blues]

Greensboro is currently giving Durham a run for the money. And little ol' High Point is 31 in the nation for per capita homicide right now. My burg is doing it's best to take a shot at the title as well.

You wanna be the man...you gotta beat the man.

[cheby]

At least while America remains America.

Not for long. I think. The irony is a lot of those people on the left, perhaps the most of them, actually hate everything about America. Its history, values, constitution, and culture.

[blues]

Not for long. I think. The irony is a lot of those people on the left, perhaps the most of them, actually hate everything about America. Its history, values, constitution, and culture.

More than I like, but I don't know how to quantify the number that actually feel that way...so I won't speculate.

[JRB]

What worries me about that is the potential to accelerate the export of leftism from places it made worth leaving.

With those sorts of folks, I ask them 'why not Canada?'

More than once I could have sworn I saw a cartoon light bulb above their head.

[Seven_Sicks_Two]

That is the problem. I am constantly talking to people of late in the SF Bay Area who have had enough and are thinking about moving. The secondary effects of COVID has pushed them over the edge. Pretty much everything described in the OP's essay is happening in San Francisco. The problems is that very very few of these people hold moderate let alone conservative points of view, they do not have any awareness that the liberal policies and politicians they have supported throughout the years have created the very problems they are wanting to flee.

I really think that there needs to be some way for states like Idaho, Arizona, and Texas to make sure that refugee New Yorkers and Kalifornians know that they need to adopt the culture of their adopted state and not try to recreate the same failed utiopia that the fled from. How this can be done - I have no idea, but without it I fear the disease will spread.

I was just reading an article about the current exodus from the San Francisco:

https://sfist.com/2020/08/15/report-shows-record-increase-in-san-francisco-real-estate-listings-as-people-continue-moving-to-more-affordable-cities/

Zillow is reporting a 96% year-over-year spike in for sale listings in the city... a figure significantly higher than surrounding cities.

As a California expat, I make an effort to avoid saying things like, "Well in California we _____." I left for a reason (well lots of reasons actually). The last thing I want is for any place I live to become more like California politically.