Central planning in action at Three Gorges Dam

[LittleLebowski]

1285954564064083969

[whomever]

https://twitter.com/Keith80519590/status/1285954564064083969

Either the link is bad, of the Great Firewall is quick today :-)

[Erik]

1285954564064083969

[ccmdfd]

Doesn't look like sacrificing the excavator did any good, although I will defer a final opinion until more engineering experts chime in.

[LittleLebowski]

Doesn't look like sacrificing the excavator did any good, although I will defer a final opinion until more engineering experts chime in.

Maybe the second excavator sacrifice did the trick :D

[LOKNLOD]

Doesn't look like sacrificing the excavator did any good, although I will defer a final opinion until more engineering experts chime in.

It gave them a more definitive way to measure the flow rate.

"I don't know how much water is moving there, boss, but I'd say it's flowing at about 4 excavators per minute!"

[Borderland]

It gave them a more definitive way to measure the flow rate.

"I don't know how much water is moving there, boss, but I'd say it's flowing at about 4 excavators per minute!"

They build a lot of excavators in China. No big deal. Nothing they can do as there isn't anything heavy enough to slow it down. Even if they dumped enough 1 ton boulders in there it would just work it's way around the breach and open another one in about a minute.

[LOKNLOD]

They build a lot of excavators in China. No big deal. Nothing they can do as there isn't anything heavy enough to slow it down. Even if they dumped enough 1 ton boulders in there it would just work it's way around the breach and open another one in about a minute.

Yeah there's nothing they're going to do directly to that channel of flow with trackhoes that will stop it. The power flowing though there is insane.

[Doug]

Never stand to close to the hole or excavation!

I watched a sinkhole appear out of nowhere. The excavator almost fell in. Leaking sewer force main that was decades old formed a void. When they were removing some train tracks, two lanes gone in an instant.

Landslides and mudflows are unforgiving. The force generated is incredible.

[hickrev]

Yeah there's nothing they're going to do directly to that channel of flow with trackhoes that will stop it. The power flowing though there is insane.

Yep, once the levee has been breached, you’re options for are more or less limited to “well, I guess we’re waiting for the water to go down before we can fix it. Hope the evacuation team did its job”.

It’s been a while since I did flood and dam work, but about a decade ago USACE was testing some plastic inner-tube thingy that you could float into the breach long enough to fill the gap with something impermeable. Not sure how it worked out.

Like was said above, though, once you have one breach in an earth embankment, the resulting water level rise on the downstream side of the embankment will weaken the rest of it, and if you fix the one breach, it’ll most likely breach the next weakest point.

[LittleLebowski]

There's damage to the Three Gorges dam already and China continues to get more and more water.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-risks-of-chinas-three-gorges-dams-flooding/

[entropy]

This has been going on for weeks, with issues that began back during construction. It’s bad. Very bad. Mother Nature doesn’t care either. If you read some estimates, it’s collapse would literally kill millions, topple the regime, and wipe out a substantial portion of both their manufacturing and farming capacity.

It’s initial construction was so vast that it actually affected the earths rotation slightly. Uncorking it will have even more substantial results. From what I have read...it’s gonna happen. It’s just a matter of when.

[ccmdfd]

This has been going on for weeks, with issues that began back during construction. It’s bad. Very bad. Mother Nature doesn’t care either. If you read some estimates, it’s collapse would literally kill millions, topple the regime, and wipe out a substantial portion of both their manufacturing and farming capacity.

It’s initial construction was so vast that it actually affected the earths rotation slightly. Uncorking it will have even more substantial results. From what I have read...it’s gonna happen. It’s just a matter of when.


So China has the one man made object you can see from outer space, and has affected the Earth's travels through outer space.

Impressive

Also a little surprised that something that has the potential to kill millions of people is not making CNN's headlines

[Borderland]

So China has the one man made object you can see from outer space, and has affected the Earth's travels through outer space.

Impressive

Also a little surprised that something that has the potential to kill millions of people is not making CNN's headlines

LL's post was the first news I've seen about the flooding. China must have a pretty tight grip on information getting on the internet.

If that dam fails I guess we'll see it from space.

[Bio]

I was reading about his a couple days ago. An engineer friend called the dam failure "the worst disaster in human history". I don't have the expertise to verify that, but it seems unquestionably awful.

[LittleLebowski]

I was reading about his a couple days ago. An engineer friend called the dam failure "the worst disaster in human history". I don't have the expertise to verify that, but it seems unquestionably awful.

Honestly, their totalitarian government scares me more and I don't mean to make light of potential loss of life should the dam fail.

[fatdog]

Filtered down all the way to a trucking industry pub (https://www.fleetowner.com/fleet-management/article/21137603/flooding-in-china-could-be-latest-disaster-to-disrupt-us-trucking-industry) I read.

I think the point about how the information is murky and the Chicoms are trying to put a lid on it is not surprising.

As Borderland said above, it if goes, the satellite pictures will be impossible to hide.

"Due to the record deluge of rainfall, the world’s largest hydroelectric dam, which has a volume of 39.3 billion cubic meters, is at risk of breaking, which would kill or displace millions, flood China’s cradle of manufacturing, and create massive disruptions in the global supply chain. Many highly populated cities have already seen historic flooding."

"It’s also extremely difficult to get any substantial facts out of China concerning the flooding. The BBC reported on July 23 that 150 had died. On July 5, Reuters said that 130 had died. Between July 5 and 23, severe flooding ravaged the countryside, with the Three Gorges floodgates opening up to prevent overflow. An estimated 38 million people were displaced, and 28,000 homes were destroyed, so the low death count should be met with some skepticism. According to Radio Free Asia, “Chongqing police have issued an emergency warning that anyone found to have posted news of the flooding online in an ‘irresponsible’ manner will be immediately detained.”"

[OlongJohnson]

This definitely wasn't in any of those "2020 disasters" memes I've seen over the past few months.

[Joe in PNG]

This has potential to become China's Chernobyl.

[Bio]

Honestly, their totalitarian government scares me more and I don't mean to make light of potential loss of life should the dam fail.

I'm no fan of the Chinese Communist party, and they're likely making the problem worse both back when this thing was built and now. It's just a horrible situation for those people stuck there.

[Baldanders]

Honestly, their totalitarian government scares me more and I don't mean to make light of potential loss of life should the dam fail.

I have a feeling you give more of a damn about the potential loss of life than the CCP does. Although, I imagine they are worried about their own position if this goes way south.

As much as I would like to see the CCP gone, I fear that the end of the Party's hold on power will look a lot more chaotic than the fall of the USSR. "Russia" is a nation with a shared identity in a way that "China" really isn't.

I guess we shall see.

[Bergeron]

Communism has been a threat to the human condition and civilization since its first conception. A particular example of this threat are the ecological disasters uniquely perpetrated by communism. I wish no ill will to the general population of China, but the Communist Party can go straight to hell where it belongs.

[Wondering Beard]

As much as I would like to see the CCP gone, I fear that the end of the Party's hold on power will look a lot more chaotic than the fall of the USSR. "Russia" is a nation with a shared identity in a way that "China" really isn't.

I guess we shall see.

The history of China, when it comes to "regime change", is remarkably consistent. Irrelevant to the cause of the change, you always get a regional break up and some degree (generally large) of "warlordism", followed by some sort of war where the winner becomes the "emperor". At first all goes well, the country prospers, then corruption prospers, then the regime gets even more authoritarian but less and less competent and we reach the breakdown. Lather, rinse repeat.

In the midst of this, the population always suffers horribly.

However, our enormously interconnected world could make for a very different set of dynamics.

[Baldanders]

The history of China, when it comes to "regime change", is remarkably consistent. Irrelevant to the cause of the change, you always get a regional break up and some degree (generally large) of "warlordism", followed by some sort of war where the winner becomes the "emperor". At first all goes well, the country prospers, then corruption prospers, then the regime gets even more authoritarian but less and less competent and we reach the breakdown. Lather, rinse repeat.

In the midst of this, the population always suffers horribly.

However, our enormously interconnected world could make for a very different set of dynamics.

I guess the main thing that concerns me is how Red Guard units went pretty nuts during the Cultural Revolution. It sounds like it came close to civil war.

But China is one of the oldest civilizations on the planet, somehow it gets held together.....but, as you point out, this is a different age than any before it.

[Wondering Beard]

I guess the main thing that concerns me is how Red Guard units went pretty nuts during the Cultural Revolution. It sounds like it came close to civil war.

But China is one of the oldest civilizations on the planet, somehow it gets held together.....but, as you point out, this is a different age than any before it.

My memory on that piece of Chinese history is a bit hazy (and I don't have the time right now to look it up) but the Cultural Revolution (and the Red Guards) basically got stopped by a coup inside the CCP (and not a bloodless one), I believe. The primary thing is that the Red Guards were started by the regime in power, whereas other such political violence in the history of China tends to begin as a revolt against the regime in power. One way or the other it gets extremely bloody.

The governments of China that have fallen before didn't have the level of interaction with and attention from the rest of the world that today's China does. That makes an enormous difference, I think.

[Joe in PNG]

As much as I would like to see the CCP gone, I fear that the end of the Party's hold on power will look a lot more chaotic than the fall of the USSR. "Russia" is a nation with a shared identity in a way that "China" really isn't.

I guess we shall see.

Then again, the Soviet Union =/= Russia, and a lot of peoples were more than happy to get the hell out from under Moscow's thumb- Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, and all those various -stans in the south. [/pendant]

[JAD]

I guess the main thing that concerns me is how Red Guard units went pretty nuts during the Cultural Revolution. It sounds like it came close to civil war.

Thank God they narrowly avoided war, and only killed more people than any other thing has ever killed.

[Baldanders]

Then again, the Soviet Union =/= Russia, and a lot of peoples were more than happy to get the hell out from under Moscow's thumb- Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, and all those various -stans in the south. [/pendant]

Oh yes....but it was pretty well understood that the real power in the USSR was Russia, and Russian nationalism was a big driver behind the whole enterprise....and "Russian values" were brought up during antisemitic campaigns and the like.

Besides, if you are a Cold War kid, you know we knew what to call 'em back then. No one said "Soviet" in causal conversation. :) They were "Commies," or "Russians," if you were feeling nice.

Sorry, random point, but are any other nations so universally hated as the Russians and the Chinese? At least by any nation close to them, or had to suck up to "advisors" in their own land. From what I hear, the Vietnamese hate both of them. (very understandable concerning China)

[Baldanders]

Thank God they narrowly avoided war, and only killed more people than any other thing has ever killed.

The flashback to the Cultural Revolution in the novel "The Three-Body Problem (https://amzn.to/3jF58I1)" (a bestseller in China, but it seems the movie adaptation got nixed) is horrifying. I doubt you would see such a brutal depiction in Western fiction because it would be too "over the top." Teenaged girls beating professors to death with belts at a kangaroo court hearing while the whole family gets to watch and denounce their traitorous members----I can only wonder if the same sort of anger is simmering below the surface of China now.

[Wondering Beard]

Sorry, random point, but are any other nations so universally hated as the Russians and the Chinese? At least by any nation close to them, or had to suck up to "advisors" in their own land. From what I hear, the Vietnamese hate both of them. (very understandable concerning China)

People in the area have long memories and Japan is closer to belonging in the "enemy of my enemy" category rather than the "good guys" category as far as most folks in SE Asia are concerned.

[RoyGBiv]

Quick summary question: Is this Dam thing in the process of failing? Can it be stopped?

[perlslacker]

Also a little surprised that something that has the potential to kill millions of people is not making CNN's headlines

I remember in 2010 when Pakistan experienced record, catastrophic flooding. Literally 20% of the country's land mass was underwater (or "affected by the floods" per Wikipedia, not sure if that means underwater or not). 6 million people were displaced.

It was never mentioned on the TV news that I recall; if it was, it was only mentioned briefly. I heard about it because my local NPR station played BBC news.

I think that our corporate media doesn't deem tragedy befalling people in other countries to be a profitable news story.

[Joe in PNG]

Oh yes....but it was pretty well understood that the real power in the USSR was Russia, and Russian nationalism was a big driver behind the whole enterprise....and "Russian values" were brought up during antisemitic campaigns and the like.

Besides, if you are a Cold War kid, you know we knew what to call 'em back then. No one said "Soviet" in causal conversation. :) They were "Commies," or "Russians," if you were feeling nice.

Sorry, random point, but are any other nations so universally hated as the Russians and the Chinese? At least by any nation close to them, or had to suck up to "advisors" in their own land. From what I hear, the Vietnamese hate both of them. (very understandable concerning China)

One of the great ironies of WWII was that the National Socialist became more internationalist, and the International Socialist became more Nationalist as things went on.

Anyway, like the old USSR, Communist China has one large group dominating a ton of 'smaller' groups- the Han over everyone else. I suspect some aren't happy with the arrangement in the same way lots of the old Soviet 'Republics' weren't happy.
Time shall tell.

[Baldanders]

People in the area have long memories and Japan is closer to belonging in the "enemy of my enemy" category rather than the "good guys" category as far as most folks in SE Asia are concerned.

After Nanking and the like, very understandable.

[willie]

Quick summary question: Is this Dam thing in the process of failing? Can it be stopped?

Our Corps of Engineers wrestles with the Mississippi River and its threats. If the big dam in China can be repaired, I think that the Corps could offer technical assistance, but under the present situation that cooperation will not take place. It is said that a bribe system is integral with the way they do business. Bribes won't fix this.

[entropy]

If you do a bit of digging and read on how it was built, the answer appears to be pretty clear. Like everything else, there is a huge amount of “noise” associated with this issue, but like stated, Mother Nature doesn’t give a damn. (No pun intended.). The forces involved in this are truly borderline incomprehensible. Repairing isn’t a matter of some hydraulic cement and an additional spillway. I’m not an engineer by ANY stretch, but as a layman looking at all that is transpiring with it, I cannot foresee a path that it does not fail.

[Borderland]

Our Corps of Engineers wrestles with the Mississippi River and its threats. If the big dam in China can be repaired, I think that the Corps could offer technical assistance, but under the present situation that cooperation will not take place. It is said that a bribe system is integral with the way they do business. Bribes won't fix this.

If the Corps of Engineers showed up on my door step tomorrow I would immediately put my house up for sale and never mention to anyone that I ever talked to them.

They don't have a very good reputation around here. I've worked with them. Mostly a bunch of bureaucrats wasting tax payers money.

[willie]

If the Corps of Engineers showed up on my door step tomorrow I would immediately put my house up for sale and never mention to anyone that I ever talked to them.

They don't have a very good reputation around here. I've worked with them. Mostly a bunch of bureaucrats wasting tax payers money.

You just described the CIA, FBI, the Postal Service, and the rest of government--local, state, and federal. They all waste money. Guys and gals from the Corps, cops and firemen, and mail persons are the ones who show up when our needs fit specific problems that they address. They are our experts. Navy seals don't deliver the mail and cops don't fight fires. Post office employees, seals, cops, and firemen don't repair dams.

[Borderland]

You just described the CIA, FBI, the Postal Service, and the rest of government--local, state, and federal. They all waste money. Guys and gals from the Corps, cops and firemen, and mail persons are the ones who show up when our needs fit specific problems that they address. They are our experts. Navy seals don't deliver the mail and cops don't fight fires. Post office employees, seals, cops, and firemen don't repair dams.


Actually they don't repair dams. They just administer the contracts. Somebody else does the work. I worked on one of their projects. I didn't see a single Corps employee on that project for over a year. If they actually built anything it would be a yuge surprise to me.

They also lock up millions of acres of public property to hunters by restricting the use of firearms.

https://mslegal.org/cases/nesbitt-v-u-s-army-corps-of-engineers/

[Doug]

If the Corps of Engineers showed up on my door step tomorrow I would immediately put my house up for sale and never mention to anyone that I ever talked to them.

They don't have a very good reputation around here. I've worked with them. Mostly a bunch of bureaucrats wasting tax payers money.

Have worked with the Corps. Had to get the assistance of a lobbyist. Suffer from same challenges as all large agencies. I could list many of them. Different smokestacks, common issues.

[willie]

I hope Trump will fix he gun restriction limitation by executive order. Their land here has the no guns signs. Some concealed carriers ignore it because the no gun signs don't comply with state law as in how the content is stated. I have never seen a park ranger. During hunting seasons hunting is allowed for ducks, deer, and doves.

[RoyGBiv]

If the Corps of Engineers showed up on my door step tomorrow I would immediately put my house up for sale and never mention to anyone that I ever talked to them.

They don't have a very good reputation around here. I've worked with them. Mostly a bunch of bureaucrats wasting tax payers money.

I did some consulting for the ACE in Vicksburg a bunch of years ago. BC (before casinos). Very competent folks there at the science and engineering level. Whether they had any sway on the execution of policy, I could not say.

[Stephanie B]

People in the area have long memories and Japan is closer to belonging in the "enemy of my enemy" category rather than the "good guys" category as far as most folks in SE Asia are concerned.

My surface impression is that the memories of the Koreans of what transpired during the long Japanese occupation (1910-1945) are very deep.

[nalesq]

My surface impression is that the memories of the Koreans of what transpired during the long Japanese occupation (1910-1945) are very deep.

Very true. For a relatively concise but informative historical study of why Koreans remain fundamentally unhappy with Japan to this day, here is a good start:

http://askakorean.blogspot.com/2019/08/korea-japan-and-end-of-65-system-part-i.html?m=1


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Bio]

The flashback to the Cultural Revolution in the novel "The Three-Body Problem (https://amzn.to/3jF58I1)" (a bestseller in China, but it seems the movie adaptation got nixed) is horrifying. I doubt you would see such a brutal depiction in Western fiction because it would be too "over the top." Teenaged girls beating professors to death with belts at a kangaroo court hearing while the whole family gets to watch and denounce their traitorous members----I can only wonder if the same sort of anger is simmering below the surface of China now.

Man, that's such a great book. That whole flashback segment was almost like a science fiction book on its own, as it was so surreal. That book and its sequels are on my "all time greats" list of science fiction books.

[blues]

Man, that's such a great book. That whole flashback segment was almost like a science fiction book on its own, as it was so surreal. That book and its sequels are on my "all time greats" list of science fiction books.

I'm not much for reading the sci-fi genre, but that trilogy kept my interest.

[LittleLebowski]

I'm not much for reading the sci-fi genre, but that trilogy kept my interest.

I'm definitely trying it out after this reading the comments in this thread.

[OlongJohnson]

If you do a bit of digging and read on how it was built, the answer appears to be pretty clear. Like everything else, there is a huge amount of “noise” associated with this issue, but like stated, Mother Nature doesn’t give a damn. (No pun intended.). The forces involved in this are truly borderline incomprehensible. Repairing isn’t a matter of some hydraulic cement and an additional spillway. I’m not an engineer by ANY stretch, but as a layman looking at all that is transpiring with it, I cannot foresee a path that it does not fail.

Do you have some links? I've tried googling and nothing useful technical comes up. Maybe the problem was trying to use my phone to collect actual information, but...

[ralph]

The flashback to the Cultural Revolution in the novel "The Three-Body Problem (https://amzn.to/3jF58I1)" (a bestseller in China, but it seems the movie adaptation got nixed) is horrifying. I doubt you would see such a brutal depiction in Western fiction because it would be too "over the top." Teenaged girls beating professors to death with belts at a kangaroo court hearing while the whole family gets to watch and denounce their traitorous members----I can only wonder if the same sort of anger is simmering below the surface of China now.

I’ve no doubt that there is.. The Three Gorges Dam fails, the CCP is done.. People will turn on them, as will parts of the Military. There will be no place for these fuckers to hide, and IMO, it can’t happen soon enough. They will reap what they have sown.. The best thing that could happen to the world, and in fact the human race as a whole, would be the total eradication of the Chinese Communist Party, to the point that not a single member, or their families is left alive.

[Caballoflaco]

I’ve no doubt that there is.. The Three Gorges Dam fails, the CCP is done.. People will turn on them, as will parts of the Military. There will be no place for these fuckers to hide, and IMO, it can’t happen soon enough. They will reap what they have sown.. The best thing that could happen to the world, and in fact the human race as a whole, would be the total eradication of the Chinese Communist Party, to the point that not a single member, or their families is left alive.

I could argue that a nation with ICBMs and various other nukes turning into a feudal state controlled by warlords may not be the best thing ever for humanity.

[Doug]

Not about the collapse but some info about the dam. It may have cost up to 37 billion dollars.

https://interestingengineering.com/13-facts-about-the-controversial-massive-chinese-dam-that-slowed-the-earths-rotation

[Doug]

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3973169

Consider it is a Taiwan source. They link to a quick two minute video showing where the path of water would potentially travel if there was a collapse.

[ralph]

I could argue that a nation with ICBMs and various other nukes turning into a feudal state controlled by warlords may not be the best thing ever for humanity.

It may not be, there’s no arguing that. But, if the Three Gorges collapses, And a free for all for power ensues, that just might happen.

[CleverNickname]

This appears to be a pretty good analysis of what would happen if the dam broke.

https://twitter.com/man_integrated/status/1287836332883050498

[scw2]

This appears to be a pretty good analysis of what would happen if the dam broke.

https://twitter.com/man_integrated/status/1287836332883050498

I read this a couple days ago. I wonder what the risks to the dam would be if an upstream collapse or mudslide would have. Even with water levels below the max currently, a the force behind a wave of water many meters high isn’t the same as near-static water levels.

Second, it might make sense to purchase hard goods needed for the next few months now in the off chance something catastrophic happens due to the supply chain interruptions

[Wondering Beard]

China Food Crisis? Rising Domestic Prices And Large Import Purchases Send A Signal (https://www.forbes.com/sites/salgilbertie/2020/07/28/china-food-crisis-rising-domestic-prices-and-large-import-purchases-send-a-signal/#7f263e951bcb)

"Above average rainfall and rising floodwaters are not just threatening to compromise China’s gargantuan Three Gorges Dam; rain and flooding are already disrupting rice, wheat and other crop production in the provinces all along the entire Yangtze River."

[OlongJohnson]

I was looking at the dam on Google maps and Earth today, and noticed that the street grid seems to be offset something like 2000 ft, putting roads in the reservoir and river. My dad was looking at it more extensively, and said it seems to be that way in a lot of China.

Could be Google just being sloppy.

But it occurred to me that it could be Google working with the CCP to make the Earth and Maps features virtually useless when accessed from outside the country, thereby forcing those inside the country to get their Google geography through "responsible" channels. In some areas, and around the edges of stuff, you can kinda figure out the offset, but in a city area, the offset would basically make the system nearly useless.

Anyone have insight?

[littlejerry]

I was looking at the dam on Google maps and Earth today, and noticed that the street grid seems to be offset something like 2000 ft, putting roads in the reservoir and river. My dad was looking at it more extensively, and said it seems to be that way in a lot of China.

Could be Google just being sloppy.

But it occurred to me that it could be Google working with the CCP to make the Earth and Maps features virtually useless when accessed from outside the country, thereby forcing those inside the country to get their Google geography through "responsible" channels. In some areas, and around the edges of stuff, you can kinda figure out the offset, but in a city area, the offset would basically make the system nearly useless.

Anyone have insight?
China doesn't work with Google. Google apps(Play Store, Docs, Gmail, etc) are banned in China by what is affectionately known as the Great Firewall. Google isn't willing to selectively censor content as the CCP demands.

All of China is messed up on Google maps. I regularly record my runs on a Suunto watch while over there and their road maps are accurate but aerial overlays are not. Apparently China doesn't like to provide that data to mere peasants.

Authoritarians gonna authoritate.

[CleverNickname]

I was looking at the dam on Google maps and Earth today, and noticed that the street grid seems to be offset something like 2000 ft, putting roads in the reservoir and river. My dad was looking at it more extensively, and said it seems to be that way in a lot of China.


It's Google doing that, but Google doing that because Chinese law requires them to do that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Restrictions_on_geographic_data_in_China

[RJ]

Not sure if posted, but I ran across this simulation video describing the effects of a collapse. Purported to originate from China, author unknown:


https://youtu.be/RjHWkCdZdOE

[OlongJohnson]

Any actual updates on the situation there, rather than just empty speculation and schadenfreude based on obvious Google image goofiness?

@RJ, not criticizing you, just summarizing my search for actual information back when this thread was active...

[randyho]

Not sure if posted, but I ran across this simulation video describing the effects of a collapse. Purported to originate from China, author unknown:


https://youtu.be/RjHWkCdZdOE
Can't wait to see what wonders wash out of wuhan when it winds up underwater.

[RJ]

Any actual updates on the situation there, rather than just empty speculation and schadenfreude based on obvious Google image goofiness?

@RJ, not criticizing you, just summarizing my search for actual information back when this thread was active...

i posted it because I didn’t see any actual impact summary of what would happen in the event of a collapse. If it was posted already, I missed it, I took the video as an informed analysis by a source internal to China. It provided a time scale as well as water height and extent, and tied it to geographic way points. For me at least it provided a sense of the scale of the disaster that would ensue and catastrophic damage to the region and the country, which, never having been to China, helped me put things in perspective. It would be a monumental disaster that would be a huge loss to millions of people for years to come.

[Snapshot]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/flooding-again-threatens-chinas-three-gorges-dam-11597847951?mod=hp_listb_pos4


Heavy rains that again swelled the Yangtze River are expected to hit the Three Gorges Dam with its largest-ever flood this week.

The new rainfall at a time when summer rains usually have subsided threatens to prolong a crisis that has already caused billions of dollars in economic losses and displaced millions of people.


As days of heavy rainfall caused water levels to soar in major tributaries of the Yangtze River and saturated the ground in cities, both Chongqing, a metropolis of some 30 million people, and neighboring Sichuan province on Tuesday initiated “Level I” emergency responses, paving the way for further evacuations and disaster-relief efforts.

It was the first time that the two local governments issued this highest level of alert since China established a four-tier emergency response system in 2005.


The water level in the Three Gorges Dam is expected to set a record of 165.5 meters (543 feet) on Saturday, according to the Water-Resource Ministry. The dam, which is 185 meters tall, is designed to withstand a water level of 175 meters maximum.

[fatdog]

Wow, considering their water resource ministry is bound to be a bunch of typical lying communist party flack no bad news types, this might be much worse than the reports.

[scw2]

Haven't been following this super closely but my understanding is there has been lots of rain upstream, which has led the govt to release water, which has caused further flooding downstream and the associated loss of crops. Between the crop losses thus far and a resurgence of ASF, based on memory so the %s may be wrong, food prices overall have gone up ~10% and pork has gone up 86% since last year, which is a big deal since pork there is like beef in the US. If rain keeps on falling crop losses will continue, and I know the govt has already bought food from the US to help with their shortages.

Not sure how the crop losses from the derecho last week might impact prices here, especially if we start competing with China for domestic crop.

[Snapshot]

Video: Three Gorges Dam in danger of breach after hitting highest water level (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/video-three-gorges-dam-in-danger-of-breach-after-hitting-highest-water-level/)

[Eric_L]

Haven't been following this super closely but my understanding is there has been lots of rain upstream, which has led the govt to release water, which has caused further flooding downstream and the associated loss of crops. Between the crop losses thus far and a resurgence of ASF, based on memory so the %s may be wrong, food prices overall have gone up ~10% and pork has gone up 86% since last year, which is a big deal since pork there is like beef in the US. If rain keeps on falling crop losses will continue, and I know the govt has already bought food from the US to help with their shortages.

Not sure how the crop losses from the derecho last week might impact prices here, especially if we start competing with China for domestic crop.

Crop prices have moved up, but not much. We had a carryover of corn from previous years of greater than 2 billion bushels. That is a lot. Beans were less but still significant carryover.