Ukraine International Flight PS752

[Chance]

I figured this warranted its own thread, as it's sure to be an ongoing issue for a while. From BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219):


Evidence suggests an Iranian missile brought down a Ukrainian passenger plane that crashed near Tehran, possibly in error, Western leaders say.

The leaders of Canada and the UK called for a full and thorough investigation into the crash, which killed all 176 people on board.

Iran has ruled out a missile strike by its air defences.

The crash came just hours after Iran carried out missile strikes on two airbases housing US forces in Iraq.

US media have speculated that the timing of the crash suggests the plane may have been mistaken for a US warplane as Iran prepared for possible US retaliation for the strikes.

CBS News quoted US intelligence sources as saying a satellite detected infrared "blips" of two missile launches, followed by another blip of an explosion.

Meanwhile, Newsweek quoted a Pentagon and senior US intelligence officials, as well as an Iraqi intelligence official, as saying they believed Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 was hit by a Russian-made Tor missile.

I'm surprised airliners didn't cancel flights as soon as they heard the news of the missile attack.

[fly out]

I figured this warranted its own thread, as it's sure to be an ongoing issue for a while. From BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219):



I'm surprised airliners didn't cancel flights as soon as they heard the news of the missile attack.

Mayor Pete can't bring himself to blame Iran, and gets roasted in the comments for it:
https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1215349135991287809

[Baldanders]

So did someone manage to mistake the jet for a drone/ bomber/fighter jet? Was the Iranian military so hyped up for a massive US retaliatory strike that that the OODA loop went to hell?

Man, Trump really rolled a 100 on the d100 on this one. Iranians are looking like the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

Ukrainians continue to roll the "1." 😑

[Baldanders]

I figured this warranted its own thread, as it's sure to be an ongoing issue for a while. From BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219):



I'm surprised airliners didn't cancel flights as soon as they heard the news of the missile attack.


Why didn't the Iranians shut down their own damn airport? They knew they would be waiting for a US response, seems like you would want your own airspace clear so you could avoid ths exact situation.

[Bergeron]

Persia has lacked talent at war since the Arab Conquests following the death of Mohammed.

The loss of innocent life is tragic and regrettable, but unsurprising and entirely the fault of Iran.

[TheRoland]

Why didn't the Iranians shut down their own damn airport? They knew they would be waiting for a US response, seems like you would want your own airspace clear so you could avoid ths exact situation.

Running airports while doing air defense isn't that unusual. Airlines run into and out of war zones pretty regularly, including Iran in previous crises. Someone fucked up.

[Palmguy]

Mayor Pete can't bring himself to blame Iran, and gets roasted in the comments for it:
https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1215349135991287809

There's a whole ****-ton of douchebags on Twitter falling all over themselves to blame Trump for "escalating" and getting these people caught in the "crossfire".

[rayrevolver]

Here is the video of the missile hitting the 737. How "they" knew to film in this area of the sky raises some questions... but you can watch it happen.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

[Trigger]

Rumor is it was an SA-15.

[Stephanie B]

So did someone manage to mistake the jet for a drone/ bomber/fighter jet? Was the Iranian military so hyped up for a massive US retaliatory strike that that the OODA loop went to hell?

Yeah, well, we're hardly in a position to throw rocks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655) in that regard.

[GJM]

The “black box” info I would like to see, would be the voice and data from the Iranian missile defense teams there.

[0ddl0t]

I wonder if some of those "Canadians" weren't really from Canada (Argo anyone?)...


Here is the video of the missile hitting the 737. How "they" knew to film in this area of the sky raises some questions... but you can watch it happen.
I wondered the same. Supposedly it was hit by 2 SAMs so maybe that was the 2nd hit?

[TGS]

Yeah, well, we're hardly in a position to throw rocks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655) in that regard.

Uhh, bit different situations there.

A tragedy, but hardly evidence of negligence or incompetence.

The US Navy, the finest organization in the world at setting people up for failure and then maliciously scape-goating them....even the US Navy didn't go after the Captain. They even backed him up, which is outrageously rare for the US Navy to actually back any of their people.

Just so happens that most of the world with the exception of Russia and Iran saw it that way, too.

[TheNewbie]

Yeah, well, we're hardly in a position to throw rocks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655) in that regard.


A U.S. foul up, but the moral fault of Iran.

[RevolverRob]

A number of people on the flight were Iranian citizens in addition to Canadian citizens.

My internal conspiracy theorist says it was a US False-Flag to rally Canadian and UK support for a potential war with Iran.

But really, I believe it was a mistake by Iran's defense system. Very, very, unfortunate situation.

[Stephanie B]

Uhh, bit different situations there.

A tragedy, but hardly evidence of negligence or incompetence.

The US Navy, the finest organization in the world at setting people up for failure and then maliciously scape-goating them....even the US Navy didn't go after the Captain. They even backed him up, which is outrageously rare for the US Navy to actually back any of their people.

I don't quite buy that. The next step after a major command is flag rank. The CO didn't make admiral.

[TGS]

I don't quite buy that. The next step after a major command is flag rank. The CO didn't make admiral.

Right, it's obviously baggage that would follow someone, but they didn't go after him.

[Lester Polfus]

Somebody blew up his families minivan too, so there is that...

[txdpd]

There's a whole ****-ton of douchebags on Twitter falling all over themselves to blame Trump for "escalating" and getting these people caught in the "crossfire".

There’s a lot of truth about people getting caught in the crossfire.

The sad thing is that it’s actual living people that get caught in the crossfire. A lot of these fingerpointers want and need innocent people to die so they can have these high and mighty moments.

I guarantee there were folks on that plane that survived the missiles, because it’s not like TV where the plane is vaporized in a ball of flame, and they had two very long minutes while they rode it to the ground.

[GyroF-16]

There’s a lot of truth about people getting caught in the crossfire.

The sad thing is that it’s actual living people that get caught in the crossfire. A lot of these fingerpointers want and need innocent people to die so they can have these high and mighty moments.

I guarantee there were folks on that plane that survived the missiles, because it’s not like TV where the plane is vaporized in a ball of flame, and they had two very long minutes while they rode it to the ground.


Okay...

Except there was no “crossfire” here.
Iran evidently launched a SAM at an airliner that took off from their own country.
They were likely on high alert with impaired judgement because they had just struck US bases in an adjacent country.

These aren’t people who died because they were caught between two sides shooting at each other (which would be a “crossfire”).
They were shot by the armed forces of the host country because they’d just attacked another country, and were expecting an immediate response.
It’s a result of poor leadership, discipline, and training.
Nothing more.

[Joe in PNG]

A poorly trained & utterly frightened SAM operator fear biting may also be possible.

[txdpd]

Okay...

Except there was no “crossfire” here.
Iran evidently launched a SAM at an airliner that took off from their own country.
They were likely on high alert with impaired judgement because they had just struck US bases in an adjacent country.

These aren’t people who died because they were caught between two sides shooting at each other (which would be a “crossfire”).
They were shot by the armed forces of the host country because they’d just attacked another country, and were expecting an immediate response.
It’s a result of poor leadership, discipline, and training.
Nothing more.

Thanks for clearing that up for me. I’m so ignorant that I couldn’t out that they weren’t in an actual crossfire.

[GyroF-16]

Thanks for clearing that up for me. I’m so ignorant that I couldn’t out that they weren’t in an actual crossfire.

Thanks for acknowledging the hyperbole, then.

[Shoresy]

My internal conspiracy theorist says it was a US False-Flag to rally Canadian and UK support for a potential war with Iran.

But really, I believe it was a mistake by Iran's defense system. Very, very, unfortunate situation.

Hanlon's Razor would point toward the latter of these two. And there's plenty of incompetence/stupidity in the Iranian military to adequately explain what we just saw.

[RJ]

How about this: It was intentional.

The leadership in Iran stated that allies who supported the US would "burn in hell" or something to that effect. Would they not been ok with eliminating a plane containing a bunch of Canadian Citizens of Iranian descent?

After all, there were 63 Canadians on the plane out of 176. I find that remarkable.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/heres-everything-we-know-about-the-canadian-victims-of-the-iran-plane-crash

And no I can't explain how that squares with their claim of "it's a mechanical fault" since they aren't shy about throwing vitriol and "Death to Amerika" every chance they get. Just thinking out loud. I am prepared to accept it is the fault of some 2LT who pickled off a missile when he wasn't supposed to.



RIP to the dead. What a tragedy, no matter how it happened.

[TGS]

I don't think so, @RJ.

Intentionally shooting down a civilian airliner because they were flagged by and/or carrying nationals of a US ally would be a really, really bad idea for Iran. Like I wrote before, anything that would give a coalition a legitimate reason to destroy the government of Iran would be their worst play to make.

Despite all the hoopla and tough talk in the news, Iran's actual decision making is much more rational than that. When you start looking at Iran in the same light that we view Donald Trump (always speak in hyperbole), a lot more starts making sense. If they were actually as bad as they make themselves out to be, if they were intentionally downing airliners to get revenge on The West, and if they actually had thousands of sleeper cells saturating the US waiting for the go signal, the last couple weeks would have looked much different.

They purposely hit some unoccupied buildings at a base for some token amount of saving face without crossing the red line (dead Americans). In essence, by merc'ing their top IRGC guy without the world turning into an ash-tray from IRGC terrorists, we've called their bluff. IMO America and the West at-large are in a much safer position today because of it. We've called their bluff, and disproven the belief that the west has been operating under for the last 40 years; convinced through Irans tough talk and some lucky intrusion into important/influential spots in the US (intentional, but lucky), that in every Capitol are IRGC-supported terrorists waiting to execute Order 66 on the west when we cross the line. Instead, we just called their bluff, we know it, and so does Iran.

So, my take on the Ukraine Flight matter is that this is what a shit military with poor training looks like in real life.

If you want to get squirrely about Iran purposely doing it with theories, go down the rabbit hole with the IRGC holding the Iranian government hostage and trying to launch them into a full blown war with the west against the Iranian leadership's wishes through intentional false flag attacks. Think Tom Clancy's "Sum of All Fears", and I think that's a much more plausible and credible storyline than Iran (as a consolidated government entity) purposely shooting down an airliner.

[jrm]

I don't think so, @RJ.

Intentionally shooting down a civilian airliner because they were flagged by and/or carrying nationals of a US ally would be a really, really bad idea for Iran. Like I wrote before, anything that would give a coalition a legitimate reason to destroy the government of Iran would be their worst play to make.

Despite all the hoopla and tough talk in the news, Iran's actual decision making is much more rational than that. When you start looking at Iran in the same light that we view Donald Trump (always speak in hyperbole), a lot more starts making sense. If they were actually as bad as they make themselves out to be, if they were intentionally downing airliners to get revenge on The West, and if they actually had thousands of sleeper cells saturating the US waiting for the go signal, the last couple weeks would have looked much different.

They purposely hit some unoccupied buildings at a base for some token amount of saving face without crossing the red line (dead Americans). In essence, by merc'ing their top IRGC guy without the world turning into an ash-tray from IRGC terrorists, we've called their bluff. IMO America and the West at-large are in a much safer position today because of it. We've called their bluff, and disproven the belief that the west has been operating under for the last 40 years; convinced through Irans tough talk and some lucky intrusion into important/influential spots in the US (intentional, but lucky), that in every Capitol are IRGC-supported terrorists waiting to execute Order 66 on the west when we cross the line. Instead, we just called their bluff, we know it, and so does Iran.

So, my take on the Ukraine Flight matter is that this is what a shit military with poor training looks like in real life.

If you want to get squirrely about Iran purposely doing it with theories, go down the rabbit hole with the IRGC holding the Iranian government hostage and trying to launch them into a full blown war with the west against the Iranian leadership's wishes through intentional false flag attacks. Think Tom Clancy's "Sum of All Fears", and I think that's a much more plausible and credible storyline than Iran (as a consolidated government entity) purposely shooting down an airliner.

Cool story bro.

[the Schwartz]

This, right here---
Okay...

Except there was no “crossfire” here.
Iran evidently launched a SAM at an airliner that took off from their own country.
They were likely on high alert with impaired judgement because they had just struck US bases in an adjacent country.

These aren’t people who died because they were caught between two sides shooting at each other (which would be a “crossfire”).
They were shot by the armed forces of the host country because they’d just attacked another country, and were expecting an immediate response.
It’s a result of poor leadership, discipline, and training.
Nothing more.

"Paranoia they destroy ya!" --The Kinks

....especially if "they" (being an Iranian SAM battery unit] anticipate being the intended target of incoming US missiles in response to firing missiles at bases hosting US military personnel in another country.

[peterb]

It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the departing aircraft has a minor mechanical, pilot decides to turn back, SAM operator on high alert sees an inbound not on a standard approach path......
The chances that communications between aircraft, air traffic control and air defense could go wrong are not zero.

[GyroF-16]

It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the departing aircraft has a minor mechanical, pilot decides to turn back, SAM operator on high alert sees an inbound not on a standard approach path......
The chances that communications between aircraft, air traffic control and air defense could go wrong are not zero.

That would certainly seem to increase the likelihood of an erroneous engagement...

But the known facts (publicly available flight-tracker data, reports that the crew did not report anything amiss, or request to return to the airfield) don’t support that scenario.

[peterb]

That would certainly seem to increase the likelihood of an erroneous engagement...

But the known facts (publicly available flight-tracker data, reports that the crew did not report anything amiss, or request to return to the airfield) don’t support that scenario.

Thanks for the correction. An earlier report I read did mention a course deviation.

[Oldherkpilot]

A poorly trained & utterly frightened SAM operator fear biting may also be possible.

My initial thought was the operator was asleep and woke up to an alarm and a return on his screen. My experience with air traffic and military controllers in most of the world (but especially that region) is surprising or embarrassing them never ends well.

[peterb]

Pure speculation, happy to be corrected....

Given that the SA-15 system is designed to intercept incoming munitions(missiles) as well as aircraft, it's reasonable to think that is has an "auto" mode that once armed, fires in response to a detected "threat" without a human having to be in the loop. Iran had to be expecting a missile counterstrike. More possibilities for error.....

[Chance]

Iran has admitted shooting down the plane. From BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51073621):


Iran has admitted "unintentionally" shooting down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people on board.

An investigation found that "missiles fired due to human error", President Hassan Rouhani said. He described the crash as an "unforgivable mistake".

The military said the jet turned towards a sensitive site belonging to Iran's Revolutionary Guards and was then mistaken for a cruise missile.

Iran had previously rejected suggestions that it was to blame.

....

On Saturday morning, an Iranian military statement read on state TV announced that it had struck flight PS752 with a missile by mistake.

It said the plane had turned towards a "sensitive military centre" of the Revolutionary Guards, a force set up to defend the country's Islamic system. The statement said it had the "flying posture and altitude of an enemy target".

Because of heightened tensions with the US, Iran's military "was at its highest level of readiness", the statement added. "In such a condition, because of human error and in an unintentional way, the flight was hit."

The military apologised for downing the plane, saying it would upgrade its systems to prevent such "mistakes" in the future. It added that those responsible would be held accountable and prosecuted.

Brig-Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Revolutionary Guards aerospace commander, said the force took "full responsibility" for the crash.

He said a request had been made for a no-fly zone in the area before the incident but - for reasons that are unclear - this was rejected.

[blues]

Well, at least they didn't say it was fake news.