DNA Analysis Just Made The Eerie Mystery of Himalayan 'Skeleton Lake' Even Stranger

[LittleLebowski]

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-mystery-of-skeleton-lake-in-the-himalayas-has-just-deepened

[blues]

https://dailycaller.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=960,height=411,fit=cover,f=auto/https://cdn01.dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/clintons-e1556562233818.jpg

"What's that? We haven't a clue what you're referring to."

[RevolverRob]

The article misinterprets the findings a bit (not too bad overall though). More importantly - it has a critical mistake mixing up Common Era (CE) and Before Common Era (BCE) - Also known as Before Christ and anno Domini (BC and AD).

Before anyone gets their titties in a twist over the use of CE/BCE over AD/BC it is:
1) Commonly used in scientific literature, because scientific literature aims to be as agnostic as possible.
2) Has origins as a functional term that date back to Johannes Kepler around 1615 (CE/AD).

Anyways, it's an interesting article in Nature Comm. Link here - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11357-9 - This is an open access article available to anyone with an internet connection.

The big takeaway is Figure 2 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11357-9/figures/2) - sections D an E (the maps) - Where the dots are colored by Fst - which is the Fixation Index in population genetics, lower values (note the exponent is negative) indicate higher degrees of relatedness, in theory. Where the genetic distance between groups is very small* (at 0 there is no genetic distance).

NOW here's the kicker - the values on those maps shown in Fig 2 are distributed all over the place. And the Fst values show three orders of magnitude of relatedness. The light colored dots have similar genetic distances to as Europeans have to Japanese. Where the middle values are comparable to the genetic distance of Greeks to Russians. That's a lot more closely related in one scenario than another. They've chosen to focus on the even lower Fst values, which I don't blame them, necessarily, but that doesn't tell the whole story. There is a portion missing here. And that portion is that alleles in the 'Skeleton Lake' populations from early on are heavily derived from Greek-Crete origins but also have significant contributions from all over Eurasia.

[RoyGBiv]

There is a portion missing here. And that portion is that alleles in the 'Skeleton Lake' populations from early on are heavily derived from Greek-Crete origins but also have significant contributions from all over Eurasia.
So the DNA theories are weak?


I found the date range the more interesting bit. It would be interesting to know whether there was a relatively steady stream of individuals over time, or distinct clusters of people with similar dating. And how tight were those time clusters (if there are clusters)? And if so, can they be correlated to known events?

[Totem Polar]

So now who are y’all going to believe? RR, with all his fancy, tier-1 science or...


https://is3-ssl.mzstatic.com/image/thumb/Video123/v4/f7/3a/d3/f73ad3bc-1ed9-9e34-f065-59bed80d9781/193483700441_1_1.jpg/268x0w.jpg

[Casual Friday]

So now who are y’all going to believe? RR, with all his fancy, tier-1 science or...


https://is3-ssl.mzstatic.com/image/thumb/Video123/v4/f7/3a/d3/f73ad3bc-1ed9-9e34-f065-59bed80d9781/193483700441_1_1.jpg/268x0w.jpg

"Take your anti cop rhetoric someplace else, Paulhides is a retired detective that's investigated thousands of crimes and deserves a little respect."-Moderator on one of the many Missing 411 FB pages when I suggested that a lot of his theories make for good stories which in turn drives book sales.

[Dan_S]

So, ya’ll got any ideas for these unusual missing persons cases, or just want to cast stones from afar without offering a credible alternative explanation?


Seems to be a bit of a thread derail, from LL’s initial post, and I just can’t seem to reconcile snarky comments on a subject that’s pretty far removed from *anything* related to the subject at hand...

[Casual Friday]

So, ya’ll got any ideas for these unusual missing persons cases, or just want to cast stones from afar without offering a credible alternative explanation?


Seems to be a bit of a thread derail, from LL’s initial post, and I just can’t seem to reconcile snarky comments on a subject that’s pretty far removed from *anything* related to the subject at hand...

People go missing. The woods don't give a fuck about you, me, or the people that go missing. Bigfoot isn't real.

[Dan_S]

People go missing. The woods don't give a fuck about you, me, or the people that go missing. Bigfoot isn't real.

Well, that discussion about beliefs probably isn’t going to be answered on an online forum when people that have spent a good portion of their lives outdoors can’t agree on what they have or have not seen or felt. Shrug.


Anyway, I’m still trying to understand what human remains in.....Asia...has to do with bringing up an irrelevant topic in a sarcastic fashion.

LL didn’t say *anything* about Missing 411....there’s no common link between these two separate discussions, and that’s pretty much what I’m trying to point out.

Getting a little ‘echo chamber’ -ish when long time posters start getting snarky like there’s some kind of ‘inside’ joke about something, that, well....isn’t answered simply, much less when it comes out of the clear blue and isn’t in any way related to the topic at hand.

[Casual Friday]

Well, that discussion about beliefs probably isn’t going to be answered on an online forum when people that have spent a good portion of their lives outdoors can’t agree on what they have or have not seen or felt. Shrug.


Anyway, I’m still trying to understand what human remains in.....Asia...has to do with bringing up an irrelevant topic in a sarcastic fashion.

LL didn’t say *anything* about Missing 411....there’s no common link between these two separate discussions, and that’s pretty much what I’m trying to point out.

Getting a little ‘echo chamber’ -ish when long time posters start getting snarky like there’s some kind of ‘inside’ joke about something, that, well....isn’t answered simply, much less when it comes out of the clear blue and isn’t in any way related to the topic at hand.

This probably isn't the first time a thread in General Discussion drifted off topic, and it likely won't be the last.

You seem to be more upset over this than you need to be. Are you a Paulides Disciple?

[Totem Polar]

First off, all:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_UW6bgXYAIL4_6.jpg

And

https://www.mememaker.net/api/bucket?path=static/img/memes/full/2015/Nov/25/4/thats-a-...-i-say-thats-a-joke-son.jpg


As to Paulides, I’ve heard that guy interviewed several times. Damn entertaining, especially if one lives close to one or more of his better-researched clusters, as I do. He was probably a fine investigator, and he’s a compelling interview.

Now about those bones from all over the world, from different epochs, hanging out in a lake together.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Df6u5YDUcAEEAZT.jpg:large

[Dan_S]

This probably isn't the first time a thread in General Discussion drifted off topic, and it likely won't be the last.

You seem to be more upset over this than you need to be. Are you a Paulides Disciple?

My personal views on this or any other subject, are irrelevant to the point I am making.

It’s a little disturbing when well respected members start ridiculing...*something completely unrelated from the topic at hand*.



Whatever you or anyone else believes, what, exactly, has pretty much anyone but blues and RR added to this thread that was either funny, or interesting?

I’d like to see a legitimate discussion of the original topic at hand, as it’s fascinating, rather than a spin off of what people choose to believe on subjects that are, frankly, irrelevant.


Now, I’m getting a little oxygen deprived from standing up here on this milk crate. I’ll jump down now.

[Casual Friday]

My personal views on this or any other subject, are irrelevant to the point I am making.

It’s a little disturbing when well respected members start ridiculing...*something completely unrelated from the topic at hand*.



Whatever you or anyone else believes, what, exactly, has pretty much anyone but blues and RR added to this thread that was either funny, or interesting?

I’d like to see a legitimate discussion of the original topic at hand, as it’s fascinating, rather than a spin off of what people choose to believe on subjects that are, frankly, irrelevant.


Now, I’m getting a little oxygen deprived from standing up here on this milk crate. I’ll jump down now.

LOL at "It's a little disturbing". Then do what 99% of the population does when they see something they don't like, just scroll past and move on with your life.

Or, put the offending party/parties on your ignore list. That way you won't be disturbed by such atrocities.

You've now contributed to as much off topic material as you're upset with other people over. Maybe put yourself on the ignore list too.

[blues]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/20/science/skeleton-lake-archaeology-roopkund.html

Essentially the same article but with a couple of other interesting tidbits. It is fascinating.






(And, in truth, a perfect vehicle for humorous explanations.)

[Totem Polar]

Man, wait until I unveil my exhaustive, exclusive-to-PF theory that it’s actually the current NY AG who’s responsible for the disappearance of all those rank-and-file NRA members from our national parks over the years. People are going to lose their fucking minds.


;)

[blues]

Man, wait until I unveil my exhaustive, exclusive-to-PF theory that it’s actually the current NY AG who’s responsible for the disappearance of all those rank-and-file NRA members from our national parks over the years. People are going to lose their fucking minds.


;)

Further possibles:

"We're the Hekawi"

A lost tribe of Israel

Early NOLS / Outward Bound Expeditions

Asian drivers

Area 51 overflow

Now we know why Trump needs Greenland

It'll be just as nice as a trip to the Mediterranean

Come for the mountains, stay for the fresh fish

[wvincent]

Man, wait until I unveil my exhaustive, exclusive-to-PF theory that it’s actually the current NY AG who’s responsible for the disappearance of all those rank-and-file NRA members from our national parks over the years. People are going to lose their fucking minds.


;)

Dude, slow your roll, I need about 15 mins to gather fresh popcorn and adult beverages.
I suspect it will be EPIC!!

[RevolverRob]

So the DNA theories are weak?


I found the date range the more interesting bit. It would be interesting to know whether there was a relatively steady stream of individuals over time, or distinct clusters of people with similar dating. And how tight were those time clusters (if there are clusters)? And if so, can they be correlated to known events?

Not weak. Just not a slam dunk. The bulk of the genotypes for the earlier arriving group are Greek-origin, but they also contain a substantial amount of non-Greek alleles. That just means there was mixture. Not surprising, given both the history and nature of humans.

The first arrival event is the Greek ones and that was about 1800 BC. Which correlates with the rise of the Babylonian Empire (Hammurabi), the collapse of the Indus Valley Empire, was a middle-period of Egyptian empires, and Troy IV/V (still several hundred years from Troy VII the one described by Homer) was flourishing.

You also see Aegean Sea metalwork that looks like near East. Suggesting that human interchange was ongoing during this period between the Med and Eurasian cultures. Not a big surprise, Troy was basically running the straits between the Med and the Black Sea. People obviously had boats by then.

If I had to guess - they were just western travellers/traders moving along a trade route that was again used later.

As for why the lake has skeletons in it. Could be a flash snow storm caught people unawares and killed them. Which wouldn’t be unheard of. People shelter near lakes frequently. Could be that the lake itself was poisonous at various times and killed them. We’ll probably never know. What this is good evidence of, is an ancient route that was travelled more frequently and for longer than we previously thought. Calling this anything else in the absence of actual evidence would be over interpreting the data available from dates and ancient DNA.

[Totem Polar]

Further possibles:

"We're the Hekawi"

A lost tribe of Israel

Early NOLS / Outward Bound Expeditions

Asian drivers

Area 51 overflow




Hmmm. Some of those could poke a hole into my exhaustively-researched theory, alright. Curse you, Mr Nice Guy.


But yoiu've forgotten one:

https://www.history.com/.image/t_share/MTU3ODc4Njg5NjgxMTg4NTc1/ask-roanoke-gettyimages-143231548-2.jpg

[Wondering Beard]

The first arrival event is the Greek ones and that was about 1800 BC. Which correlates with the rise of the Babylonian Empire (Hammurabi), the collapse of the Indus Valley Empire, was a middle-period of Egyptian empires, and Troy IV/V (still several hundred years from Troy VII the one described by Homer) was flourishing.

I am curious which Greeks those were.

It seems to be around the time of the height of the Minoan Civilization, wouldn't it? The first major Greek tribes (Ionians, Aeolians and Achaeans) hadn't really formed their own civilizations yet, I think (I'm going from memory here).

It would make sense that Greeks that in some manner were part of the Minoan civilization would follow the trade routes but it may not be. Is there a way to find out?

[RevolverRob]

I am curious which Greeks those were.

It seems to be around the time of the height of the Minoan Civilization, wouldn't it? The first major Greek tribes (Ionians, Aeolians and Achaeans) hadn't really formed their own civilizations yet, I think (I'm going from memory here).

It would make sense that Greeks that in some manner were part of the Minoan civilization would follow the trade routes but it may not be. Is there a way to find out?

Minoan society would have been around then. But calling the individuals bearing these alleles “Greek” is premature. The data merely suggest that alleles found at Skeleton Lake are more closely aligned with those known from ancient and modern Greek peoples. Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) can reveal fine scale patterns, but short of a distinct signal being known from each tribe, it would be impossible to determine if any of them are more closely related to the Skeleton Lake people.

Besides, the way war and history played out in that region, it only takes a few external males to mess up a signal. It’s possible, that the reason the Skeletal Lake individuals have “Greek” genotypes is because their group brought them to Greece as opposed to the Greeks bringing them to the Himalayas. Migration works both ways.

Short answer, the best evidence to determine which, if any, known tribes these individuals derived from would be material evidence. Coins, weapons, artifacts that more or less scream, “We were Minoan!”

Also bear in mind those “Greek” alleles are spread all over the eastern Med. Could have been people from Crete, Troy, Turkey, etc. The common genotypes in those areas today are due to the influx and spread of Islam. More recent signal will always swamp older signal. Given enough generations (not that many, actually) old signal will disappear.

ETA: after some more thought. I suppose you could get at this with ancient DNA. But what you would need is a more or less continuous geographic distribution that had time-scale resolution of say a few hundred years. With those data you could look to see if any geographic pattern is revealed. You may discover Greek alleles were spread far and wide until the emergence of the Persian Empire or you may not.

To be sure what is interesting about Skeleton Lake is the expectation was the individuals were all closely related (not true, in fact no siblings, offspring, or even 1st or 2nd cousins were found), that they were likely related to the native people’s of the region (looking increasingly unlikely), and that they were put in the lake in a short period of time (not true based on carbon dating). That’s pretty awesome that something that was once considered a “odd cultural phenomena” now requires substantially more effort to contextualize and study. I love when “simple” things turn out complex.

[RevolverRob]

Not weak. Just not a slam dunk. The bulk of the genotypes for the earlier arriving group are Greek-origin, but they also contain a substantial amount of non-Greek alleles.

I miswrote this earlier.

It should have said, "The bulk of the genotypes for the earlier arriving group appear to be of Greek-origin, but they also contain a substantial amount of non-Greek alleles.

As I noted in my follow up post (above), it is possible these alleles aren't of Greek "origin". What is clear is today the alleles found in ancient populations occur most commonly in people classified as "Greek-type". I.e., those alleles are most frequently found in people who have substantial Greek/Cretian/Eastern Med. ancestry.

[EMC]

I miswrote this earlier.

It should have said, "The bulk of the genotypes for the earlier arriving group appear to be of Greek-origin, but they also contain a substantial amount of non-Greek alleles.

As I noted in my follow up post (above), it is possible these alleles aren't of Greek "origin". What is clear is today the alleles found in ancient populations occur most commonly in people classified as "Greek-type". I.e., those alleles are most frequently found in people who have substantial Greek/Cretian/Eastern Med. ancestry.Rob what is your familiarity with using SNP markers on Y-dna to group people to ancient surname clans? My understanding is that SNPs are more reliable than STRs since they are a mutation that occurs once in time and remain, whereas STR markers can flip back and forth over generations. Happy take this conversation to PM and add more context.

[RevolverRob]

Rob what is your familiarity with using SNP markers on Y-dna to group people to ancient surname clans? My understanding is that SNPs are more reliable than STRs since they are a mutation that occurs once in time and remain, whereas STR markers can flip back and forth over generations. Happy take this conversation to PM and add more context.

Just the basics of SNP analysis.

Y chromosomes pass from father to son without recombination. So any specific SNPs that haven't mutated and/or are fixed should recover deep history.

It is possible for a SNP to reverse and for that reversal to be passed on, the last part of SNP is "polymorphism" which dictates that multiple states can occur, the single nucleotide part indicates it's a base-pair mutation. While it's possible for a single SNP to change or even a few - the general idea behind using SNP analysis is that you generate A LOT of SNPs and analyze those. Bearing in mind the average human has some 19-20,000 coding genes and ~3 BILLION base pairs. A SNP is a single base pair, so there are 3 billion to draw from, the average SNP analysis uses ~13-20k SNPs, longer ones may use a couple of hundred thousand SNPs.

That's a lot of data and it's unlikely that recent splits like surname clans would be erased across 13,000 base pairs in the short times we're discussing. A few million years? Maybe. But a few hundred or even couple of thousand? Unlikely.

____

BY THE WAY it appears I got it wrong earlier and mixed up CE and BCE AND flipped the populations. Which completely flips the interpretations of what was going on. I also managed to flip who showed up first. The Indian-derived group was first, the Greeks later. The later Greeks are definitely Greek/Eastern Med. Dating to about the 19th or 20th century .

I dunno how the fuck that happened, but I just stared at the figures again and it's plain as day that what I initially interpreted was absolutely backwards. I could blame stress, lack of caffeine, undiagnosed dyslexia, and finally a lack of sleep, but regardless that was way way wrong. So just label this as "Rob is an idiot." and accept my apologies.