PF Hurricane season 2018

[LittleLebowski]

How is everyone doing?

[Hambo]

It looks bad for those of you in NC/VA. Don't wait to get ready.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[ranger]

Glad I moved my elderly dad out of Savannah GA closer to us in NW GA. Last few years, wife had to make what seemed like the annual hurricane run to bring him north out of harms way. I do not miss being in hurricane alley. Stay safe.....

[LittleLebowski]

It looks bad for those of you in NC/VA. Don't wait to get ready.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

I’m ready now and have high hopes that DC gets hit :cool:

[5pins]

If it keeps on that track we are going to get a bunch more rain. We don't need any more rain here. My weather radio has been going off with flood warnings all day.

[Nephrology]

I am visiting my folks back east in CT, with a scheduled departure of Thurs AM. Really hoping it doesn't swing north...

[Hambo]

I’m ready now and have high hopes that DC gets hit :cool:

I figured you would be set. The GFS model had it hovering/circling DC before heading out to sea.

[Tom Duffy]

My daughter's wedding in Norfolk on the 15th. I'm hoping there is a Norfolk.

[Tensaw]

My daughter lives in an apartment in Winchester, VA where she attends college. I'm expecting that area to get hammered with rain. I am in coastal Alabama where we are *still* contending with daily downpours post-Gorden. (My yard is a friggin' bog.) Can't win...

[KeeFus]

Ready. Went to Walmart weeks ago and got enough water to last a week. Buckets will get filled Wednesday so we can flush. I have enough moist wipes to last a couple weeks. Other than that there is not much else I do. The transplants here have lost their damn minds. The grocery store was crazy around 10 this morning. I’m so glad I had already stockpiled my supplies.

My wife and I will likely get called in to work... I hate hurricanes that start with the letter “F”. I worked Hurricane Fran in 1996 and Hurricane Floyd in 1999. There have been others of course but the wind from Fran was bad. I was literally still on the road trying to get to the PD but trees, poles, and power lines almost stopped that from happening.

In Floyd, the flooding exceeded the 500 year flood levels...eastern NC was a swamp. Hurricane Dennis dumped a lot of rain just prior to Floyd, then Irene (fucking Irene...) after Floyd added to that. I couldn’t get anywhere without having to go way out of my way.

In case anyone doesn’t get “Irene”


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b6hz_biCr_M

[CWM11B]

Damn, and I'm supposed to travel down to eastern NC next week. And I have a house booked in Pawleys Island at the end of the month. I here you on the transplants Keefus. They are fookin' up the joint

[KeeFus]

Damn, and I'm supposed to travel down to eastern NC next week. And I have a house booked in Pawleys Island at the end of the month. I here you on the transplants Keefus. They are fookin' up the joint

If you’re coming next week, or the next few weeks after it hits, bring your own water. Bottled water in Grocery stores here in JoCo are already gone.

[CWM11B]

Overnight only at good old S-burg. Hopefully it wont be flooded out

[KeeFus]

Overnight only at good old S-burg. Hopefully it wont be flooded out

That place will flood...it’s flat as a pancake. You will likely be ok though as long as you leave before it hits.

[CWM11B]

Yes it does, and seen it first hand. Supposed to drive down the 12th for a class on the 13th. Hope they can make it until then

[Sasage]

Fiancee is just North if Charleston SC.

We have a gravity water filter and 2 generators.

Made it through Irma with just power loss for a couple days.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using Tapatalk

[RJ]

We’re heading up past Charlotte on our way to the Blowing Rock area this coming Friday. We are attending a family reunion for four days. Might me a bit wet from the looks of the tracks saw a couple days ago.

[blues]

I've been through my share of hurricanes, with Andrew being the worst back in 1992 when we lived in a first floor outside facing apartment on Key Biscayne.

Hopefully this one won't have much effect in western NC but I can't hope that it goes anywhere people will be at risk. So here's wishing it just stays out at sea. (Fat chance.)

[LSP552]

I've been through my share of hurricanes, with Andrew being the worst back in 1992 when we lived in a first floor outside facing apartment on Key Biscayne.

Hopefully this one won't have much effect in western NC but I can't hope that it goes anywhere people will be at risk. So here's wishing it just stays out at sea. (Fat chance.)

I certainly remember Andrew in Baton Rouge. Had a very large ash tree blow down in the yard and just miss the house.

Keeping fingers crossed about the stay out in the ocean thingy....

[S Jenks]

Born and raised New Englander here so I’ve never had to pay too much attention to hurricanes. Blizzards, Nor’Easters and ice storms are another story. My brother just moved his family to Beaumont, TX...time for me to start watching the Gulf weather alerts.

[Stephanie B]

I am visiting my folks back east in CT, with a scheduled departure of Thurs AM. Really hoping it doesn't swing north...

If you're flying back on Southwest, changing planes at BWI might not be a good idea.

[Nephrology]

If you're flying back on Southwest, changing planes at BWI might not be a good idea.

Nope - United via LGA. As long as the weather is clear thursday AM, I should be OK.

[rcbusmc24]

Pretty sure were gonna start launching all the birds here in jacksonville NC off to kentucky soon. Waiting for word if we have to evacuate both Parris Island and SOI E, or if the students will be staying in place. Pretty sure the base is gonna shut down soon.Got my flats of water, cases of IPA, several cases of MREs. All set here in Lejuene mostly. Been seeing the some surfer types arriving in town and heading out to Topsail, waves are probably pretty good for the next few days.... Takes all types I guess.

[txdpd]

I bought a Berkey filter earlier in the year, and I’m sold on gravity filters for “bug-in” situations. We’ve had two major water main breaks this year, that left us with disgusting clay filled tap water, and the filter has worked like a champ. The Berkey filters themselves aren’t very durable, and they will clog up quickly with dirty water, so a sand filter would be a good idea.

A DIY gravity system and sand filter, made out of some 5 gallon buckets, pvc pipe and berkey filters will cost less than $150 and be able to provide 20+ gallons of water a day for months on end.

[mtnbkr]

I'm in the UK all week and flying back Saturday (should land early-mid afternoon).

Our house, a 3story townhouse entirely above ground), is not prone to flooding, so we should be good from that perspective. Power in our area is pretty reliable, so we're not likely to lose power either. However, with me out of country, I'm worried about my wife and kids having to deal with the storm on their own. Hopefully it won't be too bad.

Chris

[Grey]

This one might make me finally get a generator... worst has only been a day or two without power.

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[BJXDS]

This could be BAD! The track looks very similar to Isabel. Lots of trees down that caused power outages. We lost power for a week.

The rain for the week leading up to the expected landfall this weekend is only going to make matters worse. All we can do at this point is prepare for the worse and hope for the best.

[TGS]

We're on top of a hill with excellent drainage, so I'm not too worried.

However, do you guys know of any maps that show typical flood spots in Northern Virginia, particularly for streets? It'd help to project closures. It's insane how quickly water backs up here in even just a regular heavy rain storm. I know the little ramp to get around the Memorial Circle underneath the Arlington bridge floods pretty easy, and in addition the other night when it rained real heavy 395 North flooded out right before you go up the hill for exit 7a.

[scw2]

I don't think we'll get the brunt of it since we're about 100 mi inland, but still makes me glad I already have several 5 gallon gas tanks and on a whim bought the Harbor Freight generator that LittleLebowski shared in the other thread. Still not sure yet if we should open it up to run it or just keep it on hand since we've been considering returning it and are within the 90 day window, but definitely nice to have one less thing to worry about.

[peterb]

A google search for “Virginia flood maps” and “Virginia flood zones” got a lot of responses that looked valid, but I’m not a local.

For the big picture, the National Hurricane Center has a new “Key Messages” page:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145000.shtml?key_messages#contents

[MEH]

Son in Wilmington NC (he's in the Coast Guard). He is ready, always has been. His pregnant wife is here in NOVA visiting. She's going to extend her visit so that she's not down there during the brunt of Florence. Stay safe everyone.

[Zincwarrior]

Stay safe. News is saying Florence hit Cat 4 status.

[Robinson]

Good luck to everyone in the path of this thing.

[theJanitor]

we got lucky that the cat5 hurricane Lane didn't do a ton of damage. Cat1 Olivia will be here wednesday so the panic will begin on Tuesday night :rolleyes:

Good luck to all you guys in the Carolinas

[RoyGBiv]

Eldest offspring is evacuating Wilmington in the morning. Heading inland, staying with friends.

Wife went through the checklist this morning.
-- FULL gas tank, not half.
-- Case of water and 24 hours of food in the car.
-- Week worth of clothes.
-- CASH (because cash is foreign to kids these days.... until they need to pay for stuff when the electricity is out).
-- Etc.

Wife said she could hear the eyes rolling through the phone. :rolleyes:
Sometimes lessons are learned the hard way. Hopefully not this week.

Stay safe all.

[KeeFus]

Yes it does, and seen it first hand. Supposed to drive down the 12th for a class on the 13th. Hope they can make it until then

I think Your class has been cancelled.

It’s becoming increasingly apparent to me that the next 2.5 years can not go by fast enough. My tolerance for weather related panic is getting thin. Went to the store while ago and the gas pumps were wrapped. People pissed off because they waited til the last damn minute to prepare.

They’re putting all hands on deck here...detectives and admin have been put on 12 hours shifts to help out patrol. If this thing doesn’t change course we will get one helluva hit from this bitch. Did I mention I hate hurricanes that start with the letter “F”? It looks as if Wilmington will take a direct hit with a minimum CAT 4 Hurricane.

[RJ]

Checking in with step-son at Camp Lejeune he has a Hurricane plan.

Hope and pray for all in the path of this storm.

[RoyGBiv]

I think Your class has been cancelled.

It’s becoming increasingly apparent to me that the next 2.5 years can not go by fast enough. My tolerance for weather related panic is getting thin. Went to the store while ago and the gas pumps were wrapped. People pissed off because they waited til the last damn minute to prepare.

They’re putting all hands on deck here...detectives and admin have been put on 12 hours shifts to help out patrol. If this thing doesn’t change course we will get one helluva hit from this bitch. Did I mention I hate hurricanes that start with the letter “F”? It looks as if Wilmington will take a direct hit with a minimum CAT 4 Hurricane.

I was there for Fran.
The green sky scared the heck out of me.

Evacuation? Guns, cats, chainsaw. In that order.

Stay safe!

[LSP552]

I think Your class has been cancelled.

It’s becoming increasingly apparent to me that the next 2.5 years can not go by fast enough. My tolerance for weather related panic is getting thin. Went to the store while ago and the gas pumps were wrapped. People pissed off because they waited til the last damn minute to prepare.

They’re putting all hands on deck here...detectives and admin have been put on 12 hours shifts to help out patrol. If this thing doesn’t change course we will get one helluva hit from this bitch. Did I mention I hate hurricanes that start with the letter “F”? It looks as if Wilmington will take a direct hit with a minimum CAT 4 Hurricane.

Stay safe! I sure don’t miss hurricane stuff post retirement.

Hope everyone in the path who can gets the hell out. A major hurricane isn’t anything to mess with.

[Drang]

I've been checking the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) website several times a day, waiting to see if I get another big hurricane adventure this year.

Unusual that there have been more east/central Pacific storms this year than Atlantic ones. (If you go to the NHC site, there are tabs for the Atlantic and East Pacific, but when you go to the Ep tab you can then click on Central Pacific.)

So, we have Florence about to hit the East Coast, and Isaac targeting the Lesser Antilles, because why should Puerto Rico get a break? Also Helene, although she seems to be spinning around mid-Atlantic never approaching land. Probably.
Meanwhile, Lane already blew over Hawaii, Olivia is taking another run at the Islands, and Paul may (probably will) blow out mid-East Pac.

Guys, September is National Preparedness Month. FEMA comes in for a lot of grief, and some of it is even deserved, but you owe it to yourself and your family and neighbors to get ready, wherever you live, and whatever the threat in your hometown.
National Preparedness Month | Ready.gov (https://www.ready.gov/september)

[MEH]

Son in Wilmington NC (he's in the Coast Guard). He is ready, always has been. His pregnant wife is here in NOVA visiting. She's going to extend her visit so that she's not down there during the brunt of Florence. Stay safe everyone.

UPDATE: My son evacuated. He is now here with us in NOVA with his wife. They boarded up the CG station and left town. Gonna get wet here but where he lives in Leland, NC is gonna get stomped. For those who have to stay, stay safe!

[Rex G]

Prepare well, y’all.

If evacuating, well, evacuate smart. Hurricane Rita, which followed shortly after Katrina, caused some extremely unwise evacuation actions by so very many. One example was a family that fled the Houston area and went to a hotel in Lumberton, Texas. Lumberton is in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area, and Rita veered right, and slammed into Beaumont/Port Arthur/Lake Charles. The hotel in which that family strayed lost its roof; the family survived, but Rita stalled over Lumberton, and gave them a shower-bath they will never forget.

A bit of trivia. Harris County Flood Control determined that Harvey, in 2017, was a 40,000-year flood. Not 100-year, not 500-year, not 1000-year. Forty Freakin’ Thousand. Of course, that does not mean we cannot flood, as bad, again, much sooner. Maybe this year.

Public safety sector employees, and their families, are, particularly, in my prayers. I am retired now, but Hurricane Ike, in 2008, changed me from prime of life to middle-aged, and Harvey did its best to propel me from middle-aged to elderly. Feeling relatively normal, physically, after Ike, took about eight months. It has taken more like a year, after Harvey.

Be safe and well!

[RoyGBiv]

Eldest offspring is evacuating Wilmington in the morning. Heading inland, staying with friends.
Kid #1 is on the road this morning. No serious traffic getting off the coast towards Charlotte at 8:AM-ish.

[KeeFus]

IF nothing changes the eye will pass directly over central NC, which is where I live.

At this point all you can do is Embrace the Suck.

Here is to hoping to turns out to sea...

[mtnbkr]

IF nothing changes the eye will pass directly over central NC, which is where I live.


Where are you in Central NC? My family is in Goldsboro and not terribly mobile.

Chris

[KeeFus]

Where are you in Central NC? My family is in Goldsboro and not terribly mobile.

Chris

Johnston County (Smithfield). Wayne County (Goldsboro) borders Johnston on its eastern border.

My wife and I are essential personnel which means we cant leave. Luckily I drew a longer straw and will be on dayshift.

[scw2]

It’s becoming increasingly apparent to me that the next 2.5 years can not go by fast enough. My tolerance for weather related panic is getting thin. Went to the store while ago and the gas pumps were wrapped. People pissed off because they waited til the last damn minute to prepare.

Stay safe out there. Made the mistake of going by our Costco today to get some propane since it was super calm yesterday evening. Was talking to the guys there and apparently they sold all but 15 pallets of water (out of 10k cases delivered yesterday evening) within 20 minutes of opening. At least people were polite.

[Stephanie B]

Here is to hoping to turns out to sea...

I suspect you’re screwed. There’s another system over the Northeast that’s blocking a turn.

The ”cone of uncertainty” on the forecasts looks more like a pipe.

And then there is Olivia, which is drawing a bead on Oahu....

[revchuck38]

Having been through both Katrina and Rita, all those in the path of this hurricane are in my thoughts and prayers. Mother Nature don’t play. Stay safe!

[blues]

We're getting "feeder band" like weather here in western NC.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

Got family by Hilton Head that evacuated yesterday. Fingers crossed for all in the line of threat!

[rcbusmc24]

Will be riding this one out in Onslow County by camp lejeune. Locals are predicting that North Topsail is going to be completely gone by this weekend. Got my buisness owner local area pass from the chamber of commerce due to keeping a eye on my buddies gunshop after the storm leaves. Luckily Im currently TAD from my unit so did not get roped into storm duty. Last prediction I saw had the storm making landfall at Topsail and then sitting on us for a hot minute. Gas is pretty much sold out in town. Plus once the storm hits jville gets turned into a island due to the surrounding flooding.... Im predicting a minimum of 1 week without power. Base does not want to do a mando evac because it is at the end of the fiscal year and there isnt any money available to pay if they make us leave. So its still a "highly encouraged voluntary evecuation"... thanks marine corps....

[RJ]

Talked to Stepson at Lejeune. He has a plan. He and family are meant to shelter on base inside a concrete building apparently. Makes sense as getting into and out of Jacksonville is not easy even in the best of times. No real interstates. Evacuating Onslow County will be tough. My thoughts and prayers are with all the folks affected by this storm. Stay safe.


We 4 (me, Mrs., my son, his gf) are due to start driving to our family reunion near Blowing Rock Fri morning. Our current plan is to head through Atl to Knoxville, then East towards Charlotte. One option is to remain in the Knoxville area Fri night and decide to either continue or bail Sat AM. My sense of the forecast for Fri / Sat is it will be v wet and v windy. We head back Tuesday to FL.

I’d be obliged if any locals in/near western NC could comment on the situation as we get closer to landfall on Fri.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[StraitR]

We're in seasonal prepped and and standing-by mode, hoping to avoid too much activity, which is generally wishful thinking around here.

Florence is definitely a no joke, get outta Dodge storm. Thoughts and prayers for those up the eastern coast. Same to our friends in Hawaii, with Paul now forming behind Olivia.

On another note, good grief that's an active Atlantic...

30126

[Blades]

My wife and I are planning to evacuate. I've been in a few tropical storms but Florence, well, it has the weather people guessing. That can't be good if they have no idea.

[David S.]

If you are looking for an organization to donate to, or are near the affected area and would like to help people, consider Citizens Assisting Citizens. (http://cac1234.com/)

It’s set up by Jack Spirko of the The Survival Podcast and run by Steven Harris of Steven1234.com.

[KeeFus]

Talked to Stepson at Lejeune. He has a plan. He and family are meant to shelter on base inside a concrete building apparently. Makes sense as getting into and out of Jacksonville is not easy even in the best of times. No real interstates. Evacuating Onslow County will be tough. My thoughts and prayers are with all the folks affected by this storm. Stay safe.


We 4 (me, Mrs., my son, his gf) are due to start driving to our family reunion near Blowing Rock Fri morning. Our current plan is to head through Atl to Knoxville, then East towards Charlotte. One option is to remain in the Knoxville area Fri night and decide to either continue or bail Sat AM. My sense of the forecast for Fri / Sat is it will be v wet and v windy. We head back Tuesday to FL.

I’d be obliged if any locals in/near western NC could comment on the situation as we get closer to landfall on Fri.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Most recent forecast: https://abc11.com/weather/florence-parts-of-nc-coast-under-hurricane-warning-inland-flooding-expected/4209428/

[peterb]

Now showing rainfall forecasts of up to 20”. Yikes.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/212435.shtml?rainqpf#contents
30137

[LittleLebowski]

Will be riding this one out in Onslow County by camp lejeune. Locals are predicting that North Topsail is going to be completely gone by this weekend. Got my buisness owner local area pass from the chamber of commerce due to keeping a eye on my buddies gunshop after the storm leaves. Luckily Im currently TAD from my unit so did not get roped into storm duty. Last prediction I saw had the storm making landfall at Topsail and then sitting on us for a hot minute. Gas is pretty much sold out in town. Plus once the storm hits jville gets turned into a island due to the surrounding flooding.... Im predicting a minimum of 1 week without power. Base does not want to do a mando evac because it is at the end of the fiscal year and there isnt any money available to pay if they make us leave. So its still a "highly encouraged voluntary evecuation"... thanks marine corps....

#GreenWeenie (https://pistol-forum.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=GreenWeenie)

[hufnagel]

IF nothing changes the eye will pass directly over central NC, which is where I live.

At this point all you can do is Embrace the Suck.

Here is to hoping to turns out to sea...

Have it turn north, skirt the coast, and smash into lon gisland and manhattan. I won't mind taking the outer edges "for the team" so to speak.

[theJanitor]

And then there is Olivia, which is drawing a bead on Oahu....

We're treating this one as a big thunderstorm. Schools and buses on Oahu are on regular schedule. It'll be business as usual tomorrow

[blues]

Have it turn north, skirt the coast, and smash into lon gisland and manhattan. I won't mind taking the outer edges "for the team" so to speak.

With respect, huf, some of us have family and friends directly in the center of your proposed target. So fuck off with your proposal.

You wanna take one for the team, wish it on yourself.

Otherwise, maybe just wish it goes harmlessly out to sea.


(Sorry, I'm just in no mood.)

[mtnbkr]

Johnston County (Smithfield). Wayne County (Goldsboro) borders Johnston on its eastern border.

My wife and I are essential personnel which means we cant leave. Luckily I drew a longer straw and will be on dayshift.

Know the area well. Besides most of my family being in the area, I went Campbell U for my undergrad and grad degrees.

Good luck. I spoke with my mom last night. They're as prepared as they can be. Time to wait...

Chris

[mtnbkr]

With respect, huf, some of us have family and friends directly in the center of your proposed target. So fuck off with your proposal.

You wanna take one for the team, wish it on yourself.

Otherwise, maybe just wish it goes harmlessly out to sea.


(Sorry, I'm just in no mood.)

Yup. This. On its current track, it's going to roll over my parents. If it swings north, it will hit my wife and kids in NoVA. I'm in the UK watching it all and unable to do anything.

As of this morning, it looks like it's going to drill straight into the Carolinas. Folks are still in the bullseye, but my wife and kids may be spared the brunt.

Chris

[Drang]

We're treating this one as a big thunderstorm. Schools and buses on Oahu are on regular schedule. It'll be business as usual tomorrow

Read earlier that no named storm has ever hit any island other than The Big Island and Kauai. That seems odd, I always thought a typhoon was bigger than that.

In other news, Weather Underground is actually usually using the phrase "Biblical Proportions" to describe Florence, so I think I'd better go check my kit...

[KeeFus]

Have it turn north, skirt the coast, and smash into lon gisland and manhattan. I won't mind taking the outer edges "for the team" so to speak.

Actually, this mornings forecast now shows it turning South. I’m not wishing this thing on anyone but I’m glad it’s moving in another direction.

[RJ]

The 5AM track certainly looks like it is trending southerly to me.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180912/234c8e669bb50022af6432aff73291c5.png

Almost like landfall might be in SC.


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[peterb]

Remember that wind speeds are a bit worse on the right side of the track because of the CCW rotation plus the forward motion.

[Drang]

30144
Rainfall projections per National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/092830.shtml?rainqpf#contents). Over 20"...

And Storm Surge Inundation potential:
30146

[JHC]

Both my lads are at Ft Bragg. One of them has his dogs ready for floodwaters. Fella looks a little embarrassed doncha think? :D

30145

[Grey]

Both my lads are at Ft Bragg. One of them has his dogs ready for floodwaters. Fella looks a little embarrassed doncha think? :D

30145Looks like he got caught humping...

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[JHC]

This page post is open to the public if you can get to FB. Touching, with the children singing "In the Eye of the Storm" at a school in NC.

https://www.facebook.com/chris.n.paris/posts/10213377191003614?__xts__[0]=68.ARBnOKzrk7CXJA2m-WuH0NWLlrLq-z4prDv0rcuN_DGa5LXIYdnTGqqiXDjp32Rksz-xucSEUJ4dHaUUFhfD6gom1uKJ2uMckMAYVUZt0Z0CnWuA-vgky-cj3zvhbDmbrGjHvLWJn-S09klZmiutcTgd3HeFgs80K-G1MUf0LrD2ppq9swQSpSg&__tn__=C-R

[KeeFus]

Remember that wind speeds are a bit worse on the right side of the track because of the CCW rotation plus the forward motion.

Oh yea, we're not out of the woods totally as it looks like we will indeed be on the right side of the eye. But, (and this sounds incredibly selfish) the further away she is the better off we are.

[Stephanie B]

Remember that wind speeds are a bit worse on the right side of the track because of the CCW rotation plus the forward motion.

The “more dangerous semicircle”.

[RoyGBiv]

KeeFus if you get any info about volunteers organizing to support Wilmington / New Hanover after the storm, please let me know. My kid and school friends are bivouaced in Charlotte and I'd like to point them to some volunteer needs. Get them involved in helping with recovery. Coming from TX, my kid is feeling a "tornado" level of anxiety (greater unpredictability). I think getting involved in the aftermath will be helpful all around.

Stay safe!

[JohnO]

Yesterday (9/11) I passed a convoy of Linesman Trucks from New Brunswick, Canada passing through Connecticut. They must be on their way to the hurricane zone. Looks like proactive help is being staged.

[farscott]

Yesterday (9/11) I passed a convoy of Linesman Trucks from New Brunswick, Canada passing through Connecticut. They must be on their way to the hurricane zone. Looks like proactive help is being staged.

One of my neighbors is a lineman, and our local utility is staging personnel and equipment to go into GA, NC, and SC.

I hope I am wrong, but this storm looks to be Katrina-like. But it will be worse in terms of the number of people impacted due to the population density.

[blues]

Yup. This. On its current track, it's going to roll over my parents. If it swings north, it will hit my wife and kids in NoVA. I'm in the UK watching it all and unable to do anything.

As of this morning, it looks like it's going to drill straight into the Carolinas. Folks are still in the bullseye, but my wife and kids may be spared the brunt.

Chris

At the very least it looks like we'll be in for a good amount of wind and rain in our location. Considering that we've been swamped with rain for months now and that our home is completely surrounded by tall trees, I'm going to be on edge for a while.

[LittleLebowski]

Not hitting DC area :(

[RoyGBiv]

A good resource for up to date forecasts and ground truth from the amateur radio community.

https://www.hwn.org/

Atlantic: https://www.hwn.org/weather/atlantic.html

Florence. Latest projected track: https://www.hwn.org/data/nhcat1.html

Latest (8AM today) forecast for TS force winds over the next 5 days...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/AL062018_wind_probs_34_F120.png

[scw2]

At the very least it looks like we'll be in for a good amount of wind and rain in our location. Considering that we've been swamped with rain for months now and that our home is completely surrounded by tall trees, I'm going to be on edge for a while.

At least the wind shouldn't be too bad, but the issue will be the sheer amount of rain resulting in downed trees and floods. Hoping you guys pull through okay.


I know it hasn't hit yet, but feeling bad already for the folks right on the coast. With Harvey having happened so recently, pictures and videos of a serious hurricane aftermath are still fresh in mind.

[RJ]

Yesterday (9/11) I passed a convoy of Linesman Trucks from New Brunswick, Canada passing through Connecticut. They must be on their way to the hurricane zone. Looks like proactive help is being staged.

Local news here reporting power trucks from Tampa are pre-staging en route to SC/NC.

We were so blessed to have power crews from all over the SE US in previous FL hurricanes, it is nice to see the favor returned.

[Grey]

Not hitting DC area :(Not sad about that at all. Best of luck to those in the path.

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[hufnagel]

With respect, huf, some of us have family and friends directly in the center of your proposed target. So fuck off with your proposal.

You wanna take one for the team, wish it on yourself.

Otherwise, maybe just wish it goes harmlessly out to sea.


(Sorry, I'm just in no mood.)

We'll clash swords after the storm has passed. Otherwise, take care of yourself and your family.

[Grey]

Weather is weird as fuck in NoVA, suns out. Thoughts to all those still staring this one down.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

[StraitR]

Crazy stuff.

30180

[JAD]

Crazy stuff.

30180

Gosh darn it. I have a reefer of expensive stuff trying to make it from Norfolk to Salerno. She got out in time and is running hard south but I wonder when she’s going to be able to cut back north.

[Greg]

Good luck to all in the path.

[Drang]

A good general page for Florence: https://www.weather.gov/wrn/florence


Yesterday (9/11) I passed a convoy of Linesman Trucks from New Brunswick, Canada passing through Connecticut. They must be on their way to the hurricane zone. Looks like proactive help is being staged.

When we were convoying to Miami-Dade last September -- a year ago today, come to think of it -- we passed a convoy of linemen from Snoqualmie County, WA.

[Rex G]

The best hope for mitigating anything, by this point, is not a turn in any direction, which would help some folks, but hurt others, is dry air, working its way from the south, at high altititude, into the center, at least as of Wednesday night. The “anvil” clouds, south of the circulation, and the clouds within the weakened eyewall, are the physical manifestations of this dry air.

My source for this information, on the dry air, is Levi Cowan, at Tropical Tidbits dot com. He does a very good job of explaining what the various NOAA/NWS/NHC maps and images mean.

The big concern, with this storm, is that it is likely to slow, which prolongs its impact. TS Allison, in 2001, and Hurricane Harvey, in 2017, dumped historic level of rain, because they slowed, remaining over a small area for an extended period of time, even making two passes over some areas.

Y’all are in my prayers.

[RoyGBiv]

EDITED:

The 8AM update seems much improved from just 24 hours ago, although still serious.

Down from Cat 4 to Cat 2 at landfall, moving inland before turning south, rather than grinding south along the coast.

From Wilmingtons perspective, the storm would (on the current track) make landfall just to its north, then move inland and south, passing through the north of the city then to the west of the city. The winds would then be from the west, seaward, minimizing storm surge into the city. Good news (relatively, compared to yesterday) for Wilmington, but, obviously that track is worse for other people.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/AL062018_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[LittleLebowski]

This live cam is showing noticeably worse winds since I started watching it earlier this morning. Listen to the wind.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM

[RoyGBiv]

I like that they center the flag in their shot. Betting that flag needs replacing by daylight tomorrow.

[scw2]

Weaker winds but wider path is gonna cause more storm surge for those on the coast, unfortunately.

In lighter news, saw this video of kite surfers in VA. Guy gets amazing air (first few seconds of video)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-57NebbgRs

[LittleLebowski]

This live cam is showing noticeably worse winds since I started watching it earlier this morning. Listen to the wind.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM

This has gotten worse since I posted it, darker, the winds have intensified.

[Hambo]

Listen to the wind.

No thanks. I've heard it enough times in person.

All of you in the path stay safe.

[theJanitor]

Off-topic question. Is there a rule about taking down the US flag during severe weather, where it is assumed it will be damaged?

[RoyGBiv]

Off-topic question. Is there a rule about taking down the US flag during severe weather, where it is assumed it will be damaged?Should you fly your flag in the rain? (https://wcfcourier.com/news/local/should-you-fly-your-flag-in-the-rain/article_1ea5c16c-9681-11e0-b208-001cc4c002e0.html)

"The flag should not be displayed on days when the weather is inclement, except when an all-weather flag is displayed."

I think the "Spirit" of the occasion counts, so, I don't have a problem with flying a lit flag in bad weather, especially when taking it down requires going 34 miles off shore. But I would expect it to be replaced (it's already shredded) as soon as it can be arranged, after giving priority to preserving life and property, of course.

[TGS]

I like that they center the flag in their shot. Betting that flag needs replacing by daylight tomorrow.

Didn't even make it through today.....watching it right now, it's already shredded + torn in half.

[Nephrology]

Stay safe out there guys.

[KeeFus]

Got home at 1700. Spent time with the kids because tomorrow starts at 0600 until...we should be getting the worst for my area in the afternoon/evening. The wind and rain field from Florence is huge and it’s slowed down, which means it will stay and we will get soaked...We will be getting up to 10ish inches of rain, from what they say. Couple that with strong tropical storm winds and there will be trees down everywhere. They say the Neuse River will crest here on Monday.

It’s gonna hit the NC mountains as a low pressure system and soak that area as well.

[Nephrology]

Got home at 1700. Spent time with the kids because tomorrow starts at 0600 until...we should be getting the worst for my area in the afternoon/evening. The wind and rain field from Florence is huge and it’s slowed down, which means it will stay and we will get soaked...We will be getting up to 10ish inches of rain, from what they say. Couple that with strong tropical storm winds and there will be trees down everywhere. They say the Neuse River will crest here on Monday.

It’s gonna hit the NC mountains as a low pressure system and soak that area as well.

Be safe out there.

[blues]

To all my brethren out there in the line of fire, batten down the hatches and be safe.

[RJ]

Stepson at Lejeune checked in. They have lost power where he is on base but they have a generator and ‘lots’ of MREs apparently. :)

We plan a 6:00 roll tomorrow, first to ATL then up I85. Plan B is a hotel en route (somewhere). Biggest concern is gas but we’re seeing availability ok on GasBuddy.

Some family are already in Boone NC and indicating no issues there yet.

[LittleLebowski]

This has gotten worse since I posted it, darker, the winds have intensified.

Clear now.

[texasaggie2005]

Clear now.

I'm pretty sure the webcam is down and the channel is replaying "highlights" footage. Or someone is on the platform and put up a new flag this morning.

[mtnbkr]

I'm pretty sure the webcam is down and the channel is replaying "highlights" footage. Or someone is on the platform and put up a new flag this morning.

highlights reel.

Chris

[KeeFus]

Coming at you live!

News flash!!!

Some people should not be allowed to reproduce...

#TrueStory (https://pistol-forum.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=TrueStory)

[Nephrology]

Coming at you live!

News flash!!!

Some people should not be allowed to reproduce...

#TrueStory (https://pistol-forum.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=TrueStory)

Dare I say most people?

[LittleLebowski]

Got home at 1700. Spent time with the kids because tomorrow starts at 0600 until...we should be getting the worst for my area in the afternoon/evening. The wind and rain field from Florence is huge and it’s slowed down, which means it will stay and we will get soaked...We will be getting up to 10ish inches of rain, from what they say. Couple that with strong tropical storm winds and there will be trees down everywhere. They say the Neuse River will crest here on Monday.

It’s gonna hit the NC mountains as a low pressure system and soak that area as well.

Let us know if PF can help, KeeFus.

[Rex G]

Let us know if PF can help, KeeFus.

This. I can assemble and load a care package into my Toyota Tundra, and get there in about a day and a half.

Our “potential tropical cyclone” has landed, and only given us some light rain, from outer feeder bands, so I will be free to travel, if necessary.

[blues]

Rex, you are one hell of a good guy. Just in case you were wondering.

If anyone locally needs assistance, give a shout and we'll do what we can.

(We're in Transylvania County. We always have a fresh blood supply. ;))

[scw2]

No power here since 6 yesterday. Bit annoyed they didn’t fix it in the evening when there really wasnt rain or wind before the really bad weather gets here and the area is more broadly impacted but probably no power through early/mid next week at the earliest since the linemen won’t be able to work. In the grand scheme of things as long as we don’t flood things could be a lot worse.

Hoping those nearer the coasts are hanging in there.

[Drang]

National weather Service TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents) page.
Rainfall:30301

Pacific Disaster Center 2018 Hurricane Florence (https://www.pdc.org/events/2018-hurricane-florence-carolinas/) page.

[blues]

No power here since 6 yesterday. Bit annoyed they didn’t fix it in the evening when there really wasnt rain or wind before the really bad weather gets here and the area is more broadly impacted but probably no power through early/mid next week at the earliest since the linemen won’t be able to work. In the grand scheme of things as long as we don’t flood things could be a lot worse.

Hoping those nearer the coasts are hanging in there.

Hang in there brother. If there's anything we can do to help, reach out.

[Redhat]

It occurred to me a while back that in spite of modern conveniences, the USA is a tough place to live. We have hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, wild fires, blizzards, yet we press on.

[scw2]

Hang in there brother. If there's anything we can do to help, reach out.

Is it looking out west in the mountains? I heard earlier there were concerns of flooding, downed trees and landslides. Hopefully you guys can avoid the worst of it.

[blues]

Is it looking out west in the mountains? I heard earlier there were concerns of flooding, downed trees and landslides. Hopefully you guys can avoid the worst of it.

So far we've had some light intermittent rain. A couple of gusts. Will pick up later into tomorrow.

We don't expect anything terribly severe...our biggest issue remains the tall oaks, poplars etc that surround our home. It's been so wet for months that any additional rain and wind is going to be a crap shoot.

[blues]

This is the view off the back deck. The large oak in the first image is within arms reach of the deck.


30306

30307

30308

30309

30310

[Drang]

1041016084655206400
I don't know if the animation will come through.

The National Weather Service assembles all Florence-related material on their twitter feed: @nws/florence - Twitter Search (https://twitter.com/search?q=%40nws%2Fflorence&src=typd)

[Drang]

Another from the NWS:
1041006040353918977

[scw2]

.....

[blues]

I hate seeing that...

[hufnagel]

that's a big PFucking tree...

[SeriousStudent]

I have minions in North and South Carolina (Hurricane Florence) and Manila (SuperTyphoon Mangkhut).

It's been a busy week; but so far, everyone's okay.

[CDH]

In NE South Carolina. We survived better than expected through the winds and rain. However, if the past is a predictor of the future then we're not out of the woods yet. It continues to rain here and as it accumulates flooding is a big deal as is ground softening and the subsequent falling trees. I expect our major tree issues to begin tomorrow unless the rain quits. All in all, it could've been alot worse for us.

[KeeFus]

Just got home and it’s still raining here. River flooding is the next hurdle for us...the Neuse should crest here tomorrow around noon. Municipalities further east (Goldsboro, Kinston, Jacksonville, etc) will get slammed again as rivers flood. New Bern looks bad on tv...downtown New Bern was flooded before Florence hit.

We were extremely lucky in my area and I’m thankful. After working 6 days straight Grizzly and I get a day off...then back to it again Monday!

2 years and counting... ;)

[RJ]

In Western NC; the rain and wind started in earnest after dark here. The town where we are (Boone NC) is subject to flooding, according to the locals; which is odd because we must be 2 to 3,000 ft up in the hills.

[Drang]

In Western NC; the rain and wind started in earnest after dark here. The town where we are (Boone NC) is subject to flooding, according to the locals; which is odd because we must be 2 to 3,000 ft up in the hills.

Three feet of rain will do that pretty much everywhere.

[Drang]

1041157777081688064

[KeeFus]

In Western NC; the rain and wind started in earnest after dark here. The town where we are (Boone NC) is subject to flooding, according to the locals; which is odd because we must be 2 to 3,000 ft up in the hills.

Stay safe! I saw this pic this morning on Twitter...

30360

[mtnbkr]

Just got home and it’s still raining here. River flooding is the next hurdle for us...the Neuse should crest here tomorrow around noon. Municipalities further east (Goldsboro, Kinston, Jacksonville, etc) will get slammed again as rivers flood. New Bern looks bad on tv...downtown New Bern was flooded before Florence hit.

We were extremely lucky in my area and I’m thankful. After working 6 days straight Grizzly and I get a day off...then back to it again Monday!

2 years and counting... ;)

My folks are just a couple miles from the Neuse (they're just down from Mar Mac if you know the area), but on a small rise. Last time it flooded, the flood waters reached within a mile or so of their house.

During this storm, they had a tree on their neighbor's property come down and take out the power to their house. The freezers are packed with ice and they have plenty of propane for the grill, bottled water, and food, so they're good for now.

My aunt and uncle in Kinston are ok too. Power is out, but no damage. I lived in New Bern as a kid, but have no friends or relatives there now. It's sad that it's getting hammered like it is.

What has been surprising is the coverage this was getting in the UK while I was there. Everybody over there, upon learning I was an American, was asking me if I had family in the way or if I was going to get delayed or diverted going home.

Chris

[blues]

Right now we're just getting waves of rain but nothing major and not much wind. We're thankful, as the ground has been so saturated that it's like walking in pudding.

Giddy up, Flo'.

[RJ]

Stay safe! I saw this pic this morning on Twitter...

30360

Thanks.

We’re maybe 4 Miles out of Boone up off one of the hilltop roads. Being flatlanders we aren’t used to the twists and turns up here. The road beds are all paved though which helps us. We arrived at dusk Thu night and barely made it before darkness fell.

Today seems to be the brunt of it for Watauga County. If anything since dawn the wind has picked up and we are seeing driving rain. We brought plenty of family comfort food and have power and internet. So as far as we’re concerned it’s a minor annoyance compared to how the rest of NC/SC are faring. Those flood pictures are just heart wrenching.

13 deaths now is what I’m seeing being reported. What an awful shame.

Edit: Just saw a comment on TV that gave me pause. Given the amount of rain we’re getting here in Western NC, when all that water starts heading to the coast things may get worse instead of better over the next few weeks in terms of coastal flooding. :(

[RJ]

Stepson at Lejeune checked in. They have lost power where he is on base but they have a generator and ‘lots’ of MREs apparently. [emoji4]



Stepson has power back on, no damage. All family and pets accounted for. House is in Piney Green and also ok/power on.

[BJXDS]

I have seen pics from friends in the Jacksonville, Richlands, New Bern, Oriental and Bath areas. The Tar, Pamlico, and Neuse rivers have not hit flood stage yet. It is unbelievable to see how the widespread and massive the flooding is.

I do quite a bit of fishing on the Tar/Pam/Neuse rivers and I can't believe there are quite a few people saying they expect to be able to get back on the rivers by next week. I would have thought the commercial and recreational fishing would be shut down for several weeks. I can't imagine the economic impact in those areas, there is not a whole lot down there, except for farmland and fishery.

I am afraid the total damage will be apparent and felt for a LONG Time.

In any case my thoughts and prayers are with everyone in Florence's path.

[blues]

Has anyone heard from rcbusmc24 in the Jacksonville area? I hope that any of our folks in the harder hit areas will check in with us when it's possible, or anyone having contact with them via cell or text let us know if they're okay.

That goes for our LEOs (working and retired) who were in the crosshairs.

Please check in folks and let us know if there's anything we can provide.

[LittleLebowski]

Has anyone heard from rcbusmc24 in the Jacksonville area? I hope that any of our folks in the harder hit areas will check in with us when it's possible, or anyone having contact with them via cell or text let us know if they're okay.

That goes for our LEOs (working and retired) who were in the crosshairs.

Please check in folks and let us know if there's anything we can provide.

If anyone can handle this, it's rcbusmc24. I'm not making light of his situation, just saying the guy is prepared and trained :cool:

[Drang]

Here is the NOAA/NWS Flood/River Gauge monitoring map. Select the state from the drop down. (https://water.weather.gov/ahps/index.php)

Click an icon to see the status of specific gauge.

[RJ]

If anyone can handle this, it's rcbusmc24. I'm not making light of his situation, just saying the guy is prepared and trained [emoji41]

I would guess the Marines at Lejeune will be fine, if this video of a T Rex running around the barracks is any indication. :)

https://www.facebook.com/terminallance/videos/240718056614043/

[LittleLebowski]

I would guess the Marines at Lejeune will be fine, if this video of a T Rex running around the barracks is any indication. :)

https://www.facebook.com/terminallance/videos/240718056614043/


So proud to be a Marine right now.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

Gun store burglary risk: https://abcnews.go.com/US/gun-stores-present-target-looters-hurricanes/story?id=57830598

[blues]

I would guess the Marines at Lejeune will be fine, if this video of a T Rex running around the barracks is any indication. :)

https://www.facebook.com/terminallance/videos/240718056614043/


So proud to be a Marine right now.


I didn't know that T-Rain-o-saurus Rex still roamed the earth. Hurricanes had better find easier pickins.

[Greg]

30374

Never change CNN.....

[blues]

30374

Never change CNN.....


We go deeper than any other network...:rolleyes:


How'd he know the guy wasn't feeding him a power line? :p

[RJ]

30374

Never change CNN.....

Is the broadcast video of that available somewhere?

[Chance]

Is the broadcast video of that available somewhere?

That photo is evidently from Hurricane Ike back in 2008.

[RJ]

That photo is evidently from Hurricane Ike back in 2008.

Found it:

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/anderson-cooper-hurricane/

[rcbusmc24]

Still don't have power. No flooding in my place, buddies gunstore flooded out and the roof was leaking bad. Been cleaning that up. We are effectively a island in onslow county right now. Very little gas. Luckily I have plenty. Stood in line at a bodega for 45 minutes to get my elderly neighbor her smokes and pepsis. Cash only right now. If you have sprint like me switch to a new service. Sprint lost their service early on. Not going back in to base until Wed at the earliest.

[blues]

Glad to hear you're okay.

[BobM]

Stood in line at a bodega for 45 minutes to get my elderly neighbor her smokes and pepsis. S

👍

[blues]

👍


No thumbs up. He forgot the MoonPies. ;)

[KeeFus]

Thanks.

We’re maybe 4 Miles out of Boone up off one of the hilltop roads. Being flatlanders we aren’t used to the twists and turns up here. The road beds are all paved though which helps us. We arrived at dusk Thu night and barely made it before darkness fell.

Today seems to be the brunt of it for Watauga County. If anything since dawn the wind has picked up and we are seeing driving rain. We brought plenty of family comfort food and have power and internet. So as far as we’re concerned it’s a minor annoyance compared to how the rest of NC/SC are faring. Those flood pictures are just heart wrenching.

13 deaths now is what I’m seeing being reported. What an awful shame.

Edit: Just saw a comment on TV that gave me pause. Given the amount of rain we’re getting here in Western NC, when all that water starts heading to the coast things may get worse instead of better over the next few weeks in terms of coastal flooding. :(

Dont know if you’re on Facebook but Boone PD has been updating things fairly regularly.

https://www.facebook.com/boonepolice/

[JAD]

No thumbs up. He forgot the MoonPies. ;)

He didn’t say smokes and RCs.

[blues]

He didn’t say smokes and RCs.

I forgave that part due to the hurricane. But still...one has to wonder about the young man's priorities...:p

[SeriousStudent]

So proud to be a Marine right now.

PFC's are why we can't have nice things.

[TheNewbie]

No thumbs up. He forgot the MoonPies. ;)

I haven't followed this thread, but I seriously hope all you out east are ok.

....and moon pies. There will never be enough time for moon pies.

[LittleLebowski]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NH81PTr_DOQ

[mtnbkr]

I was talking to my mom last night. It seems they've had a number of deaths or swift water rescues due to people thinking their brodozers were impervious to deep water. :rolleyes:

Chris

[KeeFus]

I was talking to my mom last night. It seems they've had a number of deaths or swift water rescues due to people thinking their brodozers were impervious to deep water. :rolleyes:

Chris

I think the death toll in NC alone is 24 at the moment...

[RJ]

We concluded our family visit and are en route back to Tampa.

Traffic through Charlotte was smooth and we are headed to Columbia on I77. Lots of trucks and travel trailers but not too different than what we see usually traveling up and down the East coast.

[rcbusmc24]

Just got power back on....

[Drang]

Just got power back on....

So you can toss your TRex suit in the dryer?

[LittleLebowski]

PFC's are why we can't have nice things.

And lifetime Lance Criminals. Don't forget "second award" PFCs and Lances :D

[SeriousStudent]

I was nearly one of those. Twice.

[RoyGBiv]

My oldest got notified that their apartment complex had power restored yesterday, except for one building that has a blown transformer.
Guess which building.... :rolleyes:

Waiting on Duke Power to get around to it. Eta unknown. Kid still evacuated. Safe is really all that matters. Everything else is just inconvenience. And cost. :p

[Drang]

Reminder: It ain't over 'til it's over: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents), soon to be Hurricane Michael.
31098

Tropical cyclone naming (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_naming) trivia: So, every year there are 26 names pre-designated for hurricanes in the Atlantic, the East Pacific, and the Central Pacific. Actually, there are 6 lists, which cycle every (duh) 6 years, except when a storm is particularly "memorable", in which case that name is retired.

The Central Pacific, which is usually fairly uneventful vis a vis hurricanes, got up to "W", Walaka, this year. Supposedly, this is the first time the Hawaiian Islands were hit by two hurricanes in the same year, AND the first year an island besides Hawaii or Kauai was hit directly.

[StraitR]

Hurricane Michael is currently a Cat1 (Max 85mph sustained winds) and forecasted to be a Cat3 when it makes landfall sometime Wednesday. Not only is it increasing in strength quickly, it's also gaining speed quickly.
31167

[RJ]

Well.

Shit.

This is not good for the Panhandle. Hope and pray all in the path of this storm are ok.

Which is not currently me, here in Tampa, but who knows.

[revchuck38]

Just what those folks in the Carolinas need, more rain...

[Drang]

Well.

Shit.

This is not good for the Panhandle. Hope and pray all in the path of this storm are ok.

Which is not currently me, here in Tampa, but who knows.

Don't get cocky, kid.
1049450572376657920

[Palmguy]

Keeping an eye on things from just west of the currently projected landfall. Learned the hard way in 2004 that a last minute track shift can be a real kick in the nuts.

[Drang]

Kind of a Wall o' Text:


Hurricane Michael Public Advisory (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/090255.shtml?)

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090255
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 85.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the northeastern Yucatan peninsula and Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 85.3 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from the two reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Michael is expected to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the two aircraft was 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina... 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Robinson]

This isn't looking good for our planned trip to Hilton Head this weekend.

More importantly, this isn't looking good for the Florida panhandle.

[Palmguy]

Calm before the storm.

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1936/30274817037_767aadff74_h.jpg

[Drang]

National Hurricane Center's Hurricane Michael Page. (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents)
31200

The presence of Hurricane Leslie in this one makes it very special...
31201

Storm Surge Watch/Warning extends from almost Mobile Bay to Tampa bay.
(The pic of that didn't show well at all...)

Rainfall Forecast:
31203


Oh, and here comes Tropical Storm Nadine (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?cone#contents)...

[RJ]

We are just getting the outer rain bands this morning from Michael here in Tampa this morning. Kept me and the doggie indoors from our normal after breakfast walkies.

I see it strengthened to a Cat 4 overnight as it heads to Panama City. I’ve generally only driven East/West through the Panhandle, and there is not a lot of interstate North/South options as I recall, for Evacuation. With the sudden onset of this Major Storm I hope and pray folks manage to get out in time but I fear we’ll see a lot of rescues due to local flooding after it passes through.

Definitely sucks to be in that kind of situation. Best of luck to all involved.

[Cory]

Rich_Jenkins I live in Citrus county north of you. We're looking to take alot of storm surge. My work is in the mandatory evac zone, but staying open.

I think both of us should mostly be okay, the folks on the pan handle look like they're going to get the brunt.

-Cory

[RJ]

Rich_Jenkins I live in Citrus county north of you. We're looking to take alot of storm surge. My work is in the mandatory evac zone, but staying open.

I think both of us should mostly be okay, the folks on the pan handle look like they're going to get the brunt.

-Cory

No kidding? I have family in Ocala, they’re inland in Marion Co so should be ok.

Be safe.


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[LittleLebowski]

Keeping an eye on things from just west of the currently projected landfall. Learned the hard way in 2004 that a last minute track shift can be a real kick in the nuts.

How close are you to Penscola?

[Hambo]

My prayers for everybody in the path of this bastard. I feel really bad for those in small towns in the panhandle and big bend. They don't have a lot of resources to deal with this. FDs from here are sending a small team and Florida Power and Light crews are leaving today.

[Tensaw]

Dang. I have to admit, I pretty much discounted this storm ever since it started being news several days ago. I mean, it's friggin' *OCTOBER*, right!?! That said, Michael is an asshole. Waiting on him to take that right-hand turn...

[blues]

As if we hadn't already had too much rain this year...


Batten down the hatches, lads.


Be safe if you're in the path.

[blues]

My prayers for everybody in the path of this bastard. I feel really bad for those in small towns in the panhandle and big bend. They don't have a lot of resources to deal with this. FDs from here are sending a small team and Florida Power and Light crews are leaving today.


Hoping my friends in Mary Esther (outside of Ft. Walton Beach) will come through without too much trouble. They've had to replace a roof and more in past years.

[Inkwell 41]

To everyone in it's path.... Stay safe. You are in our prayers.

[Craig@SSD]

Michael went from a tropical depression to a Cat4 monster making landfall in just over three days. That's crazy.

[Palmguy]

I'm seeing reports that conditions are favorable for continued strengthening and Cat5 isn't out of the question prior to landfall.


How close are you to Penscola?

About 45 miles east; near Eglin AFB.


We are just getting the outer rain bands this morning from Michael here in Tampa this morning. Kept me and the doggie indoors from our normal after breakfast walkies.

I see it strengthened to a Cat 4 overnight as it heads to Panama City. I’ve generally only driven East/West through the Panhandle, and there is not a lot of interstate North/South options as I recall, for Evacuation. With the sudden onset of this Major Storm I hope and pray folks manage to get out in time but I fear we’ll see a lot of rescues due to local flooding after it passes through.

Definitely sucks to be in that kind of situation. Best of luck to all involved.

Our N/S roads were pretty bad here yesterday. SR 85 (divided four lane) and SR 285 (two lane) are only two roads headed north from the Destin. 85 (the primary route north) was a nightmare. US 331 is the primary N/S route covering a pretty large stretch from east of Destin almost to Panama City Beach. It's recently been finished converting from two lane to divided four lane from the Gulf up to I-10, and it was gridlock near the interstate. Once you get past I-10, there are a few routes you can take to get to I-65, and there were reports that traffic was moving very slow up around Andalusia, AL (which is the route I usually take if I'm headed north). I'm not as familiar with PCB, but the roads aren't significantly different there and I'm guessing traffic was worse simply due to the projected landfall.

Honestly the traffic infrastructure here is insufficient for daily commuting (in my specific area), to say nothing of tourist traffic volume. It's fortunate for everyone who did evacuate that we're past tourist season or it would have been a lot worse.

[Moshjath]

My folks live on ST George Island, and evacuated to Huntsville AL yesterday. Now begins the wait to see what happens to the house.

[RJ]

This is not going to be good.

I have family that got out of FWB with literally the shirt on their back after Hurricane Opal in 1995. 12 foot storm surge. Basically matchsticks left.

Be safe all.

[RJ]

About 45 miles east; near Eglin AFB.



Some of my work relates to Hurlburt Field. Be safe.

[blues]

Some of my work relates to Hurlburt Field. Be safe.


That's just down the road from my friends.

[Craig@SSD]

Weather Channel reporting wind speed increase to 150mph. Godspeed to all who have remained, either by choice or for public service.

[RJ]

Weather Channel reporting wind speed increase to 150mph. Godspeed to all who have remained, either by choice or for public service.

Yeah no bueno. We have RV friends who bugged out from Destin. They are now headed NW of P-Cola.

Opal was what, 5B? And Andrew $25B?

But stuff you can replace. People, not so much. Praying for all in the path of this storm.


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[RJ]

That's just down the road from my friends.

Yeah I was up staying in Mary Esther a few weeks ago.

Hope they are ok.


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[5pins]

This USA Today channel seems to be rotating through some good webcams.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwQXAkHLki4

[ragnar_d]

My prayers for everybody in the path of this bastard. I feel really bad for those in small towns in the panhandle and big bend. They don't have a lot of resources to deal with this. FDs from here are sending a small team and Florida Power and Light crews are leaving today.

Last two days I've seen Lewis (tree service), Asplundh, and FPL trucks heading north on the turnpike and I-75. Seems like the second time in as many weeks after seeing the trucks dispatched for Florence.

Was just up in Tallahassee and I can't imagine what the recovery would be like up there. Locals said there are outages if there's a stiff breeze, let alone a big storm like this.


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Disclaimer: I work in the firearms industry as a designer and engineer. My posts do not represent the opinions or positions of my employers, past or present.

[StraitR]

Just 2mph shy of a Cat5 as it makes landfall. Wow.

31207

[Hambo]

Michael went from a tropical depression to a Cat4 monster making landfall in just over three days. That's crazy.

Not really, there's a lot of heat energy in the Gulf. It hit the right conditions at the right time and intensified quickly.

[RoyGBiv]

Godspeed to all who have remained, either by choice or for public service.
Amen, this.

A Cat-5 is serious business. Scarier also that it wasn't expected to get this strong this quickly.
Many may have remained that would have gotten out had the expectation been this dire earlier.

[StraitR]

Not really, there's a lot of heat energy in the Gulf. It hit the right conditions at the right time and intensified quickly.

I understand the science of how it happens, but as a Florida resident, I'm not aware of another storm that's done the same. IMO, there are a lot of "WOW" Michael facts.

- 2mph shy of a Cat5 when making landfall
- Third largest storm on record to ever hit the US
- Currently well inland (not collecting energy over water) and still a Cat4 with 150mph winds


It's a legit monster, and it wasn't even a thing five days ago. I'm just grateful I'm here talking about it instead of hunkered down or displaced with my family. I'll be making a run up this weekend with water and toilet paper if I can confirm an open route with gas available (just in case).

[Trukinjp13]

I feel horrible because months ago we booked a trip to Clearwater for next week. Now this prick is coming. First thing I did was go fuck idk about the vacation now. Then I went you cocksucker the poor people who are getting hit could be devastated. Good luck to everyone down there. Don’t do anything stupid and stay safe.

[Hambo]

I understand the science of how it happens, but as a Florida resident, I'm not aware of another storm that's done the same. IMO, there are a lot of "WOW" Michael facts.

- 2mph shy of a Cat5 when making landfall
- Third largest storm on record to ever hit the US
- Currently well inland (not collecting energy over water) and still a Cat4 with 150mph winds


It's a legit monster, and it wasn't even a thing five days ago. I'm just grateful I'm here talking about it instead of hunkered down or displaced with my family. I'll be making a run up this weekend with water and toilet paper if I can confirm an open route with gas available (just in case).

I live in Florida, too. I suppose I'm not surprised because I've been watching the GFS model on this since it was an unnamed disturbance, say the beginning of the month. IIRC Andrew had a pretty rapid intensification, and lesser storms have intensified quickly, we just don't remember them because they weren't as big a deal.

I agree that it's about as bad as it can get, and the path of destruction where the worst winds are will be nearly total. The lesson for us is that no matter what they tell you, immediate evacuation is might be necessary at any time.

If you don't look at this site all through hurricane season, you should start. You can't go by the real long term (300 hour) tracks, but you'll have a far better idea of what's going on and far more warning than the news will give you.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[blues]

I lived on Key Biscayne during Andrew. Wouldn't want to revisit the storm or its aftermath.

[JRB]

My girlfriend's Mother lives about 30min inland from Panama City and chose to hunker down. So far she's lost several trees on her property, and the roof and several windows are now damaged. She's in good spirits and hanging in there, but she's regretting her decision to stay.

[StraitR]

I live in Florida, too. I suppose I'm not surprised because I've been watching the GFS model on this since it was an unnamed disturbance, say the beginning of the month. IIRC Andrew had a pretty rapid intensification, and lesser storms have intensified quickly, we just don't remember them because they weren't as big a deal.

I agree that it's about as bad as it can get, and the path of destruction where the worst winds are will be nearly total. The lesson for us is that no matter what they tell you, immediate evacuation is might be necessary at any time.

If you don't look at this site all through hurricane season, you should start. You can't go by the real long term (300 hour) tracks, but you'll have a far better idea of what's going on and far more warning than the news will give you.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Agreed on all accounts. Thanks for the link, I've bookmarked it for use in addition to the couple others I have. Hopefully you're far away from Michael.


ETA: If anyone here has been affected by Michael and is in need of assistance, please shoot me a PM and we can exchange contact info. I will do whatever I can to help out.

[Sasage]

Fiancee lives in CHS. Hopefully just a tropical storm at this point.

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[Cory]

Looks like this was exaggerated for my area. We saw scattered showers, moderate wind at best. Anyone inland of highway 19 has been fine. I dont expect that to change with the surge.

Those on the panhandle have been absolutely slammed. Sustained average of 150 mile an hour winds are awesome power.

-Cory

[zuplex]

We're by Tallahassee; everyone ok in my family and neighborhood. No apparent damage to our house.

[Drang]

Michael was rated as something like 80% chance of developing into a hurricane when it was just Tropical Depression 14. If I lived, or had family or friends, or other interests, in hurricane country I'd be checking the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) website daily during hurricane season. Atlantic page, Eastern North Pacific Page, and when on the ENP page click on Central Pacific link to get Hawaii.
The Pacific Disaster Center (https://www.pdc.org/) is also a source of good info.

I just got a link to this page, too: US Geological Survey Hurricane Michael Event Support Map (https://geoplatform.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=1114798afcc244a5a299c0a6bf149016) . It's GIS, so a resource hog, so maybe view it on your gaming computer...


Don't forget, Sergio is expected to blow over Mexico, into New Mexico and blow out over Oklahoma.

Plus, Leslie and Nadine are still spinning around.

[Drang]

...Sergio is expected to blow over Mexico, into New Mexico and blow out over Oklahoma.

Plus, Leslie and Nadine are still spinning around.

Plus, a new player, Depression #1 southeast of Yucatan, 50% chance of Cyclonic Formation in the next five day (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5)...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Michael, located over southwestern Georgia, on Hurricane Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Nadine, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the west-central Caribbean Sea in a day or two. Environmental conditions are forecast to support gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly westward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[rob_s]

Michael was rated as something like 80% chance of developing into a hurricane when it was just Tropical Depression 14. If I lived, or had family or friends, or other interests, in hurricane country I'd be checking the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) website daily during hurricane season. Atlantic page, Eastern North Pacific Page, and when on the ENP page click on Central Pacific link to get Hawaii.
The Pacific Disaster Center (https://www.pdc.org/) is also a source of good info.

I just got a link to this page, too: US Geological Survey Hurricane Michael Event Support Map (https://geoplatform.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=1114798afcc244a5a299c0a6bf149016) . It's GIS, so a resource hog, so maybe view it on your gaming computer...


Don't forget, Sergio is expected to blow over Mexico, into New Mexico and blow out over Oklahoma.

Plus, Leslie and Nadine are still spinning around.

If you lived in Florida, you actually probably wouldn't.

What you learn, rather quickly for most people, is that you can't live every day worrying about it. You have your version of "prepared" at home and you have your "go time" in your head and until it's go time you don't start preparing.


I'm a Florida native, 19 years in Tallahassee, 8 in Gainesville, and 17 in SE Florida. I will admit that until moving down here we didn't give hurricanes much thought. My parents are both still in Tallahassee and are both without power as far as I know but otherwise ok. They both have generators (which surprised me, actually).

I saw a map the other day (maybe in this thread?) showing the Florida coast and the number of years you're likely to go between getting hit (notice it's not "if you'll get hit" but "when"). The map was similar to this one, but not exactly.

https://blogs.sas.com/content/sastraining/files/2017/09/florida_hurricanes_osm.png

[rob_s]

original map I was thinking of might have been this one

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/return_hurr.jpg

[zuplex]

I lived on Key Biscayne during Andrew. Wouldn't want to revisit the storm or its aftermath.

My family had just moved to Miami a few months before Andrew hit. We rode out the storm at our house on....I think SW 132nd. We lived a little bit south of the Falls/Pinecrest area.

During the storm, I watched my dad struggle to hold our front door shut against the wind. Eventually the door broke in half in the middle from left to right. I remember distinctly my dad ducking his head down, dashing outside in the middle of a Cat 5, and return with the two halves of the door to hold up to keep the storm out of our house.

In the morning I sat down on top of a cooler and ate a granola bar.

For years afterward, we could still see and touch shingles from someone's roof that had been thrown like knives and buried deep into the trunk of the shaving brush tree in our front yard.

[zuplex]

Was just up in Tallahassee and I can't imagine what the recovery would be like up there. Locals said there are outages if there's a stiff breeze, let alone a big storm like this.



Yeah, the trees fall pretty readily. Fortunately, when Hermine came through in 2016 it knocked down tons and tons of trees that probably should have come down years before. We lost power for anywhere from 3-9 days, depending on where you were in the city.

I think that experience taught the City some valuable lessons that they put to use during Irma last year and will for Michael's aftermath. Yeah it's bad, but it would be much much worse if not for the experience of the past two years' storms.

[Hambo]

If you lived in Florida, you actually probably wouldn't.

What you learn, rather quickly for most people, is that you can't live every day worrying about it. You have your version of "prepared" at home and you have your "go time" in your head and until it's go time you don't start preparing.



I don't worry about hurricanes, but I keep track of serious invests in the Atlantic. Knowing what's coming is not a disadvantage.




original map I was thinking of might have been this one

#MapIsShit (https://pistol-forum.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=MapIsShit) Long term averages are not an accurate prediction of future risk. There hadn't been a significant hurricane here in twenty years, then we got two direct hits in one month's time. Since then we've averaged a hurricane every 3-4 years and a tropical storm more frequently than that.

[rob_s]

I don't worry about hurricanes, but I keep track of serious invests in the Atlantic. Knowing what's coming is not a disadvantage.

I imagine the demographic of this forum is likely going to skew the results of any poll on this. Viewed one way this group is largely one that likes to be prepared. Viewed another it's a group that largely likes to look for problems to prepare for. Either way, I'm sure this group pays more attention to such things.

I just know that I really don't, and most people I know or interact with pay even less attention.

[willie]

I just now saw on a weather channel that winds had blown over an entire freight train. For as far as you could see, every single car was knocked over, and many were dislodged from wheels. I think that this occurred in Tallahassie. A few years back in the Dallas area, tornado winds had giant 18 wheeler trailers flying through the air as if they were leaves. Sometimes we fail to understand these forces.

[CWM11B]

... Sometimes we fail to understand these forces.

Truer words have never been spoken. It hit us today in north central NC, many, many miles from landfall. Trees are down all over my city and we have been without power since 1400 EST. To bad my whole house standby generator install is still a couple of weeks out

[blues]

Truer words have never been spoken. It hit us tiday on north central NC, many, many miles from landfall. Trees are down all over y city and we have been without power since 1400 EST. To bad my whoke house standby generator install is still a couple of weeks out

Sorry to hear this. We dodged a bullet out here. A bit of wind and a decent amount of rain early.

[StraitR]

The damage is pretty incredible. Whole houses moved hundreds of yards. Whole houses completely destroyed, with only foundations left as proof of their existence. It will take years to rebuild these communities, but rest assured, they will be back. Thoughts and prayers to these families and communities.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPJ6fhQ8-Tw

ETA: The first minute of this one is super blurry. Fast forward to 1:00 mark.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_m_F0XxtstU

ETA2: Tyndall AFB (East of Panama City)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ML_Vn0FF6lM

[JRB]

The damage is pretty incredible. Whole houses moved hundreds of yards. Whole houses completely destroyed, with only foundations left as proof of their existence. It will take years to rebuild these communities, but rest assured, they will be back. Thoughts and prayers to these families and communities.


That footage of Tyndall is less than 2 miles from where my Girlfriend grew up. Her old neighborhood just north of Tyndall is completely leveled. Along with her old elementary school, middle school, and high school too.

Her Mother, thank goodness, now lives further inland about 30mins north of Panama City. Trees went down all over her property but miraculously none hit her house directly. The house suffered some roof damage but no water got in, and lost a window or two. One of the fallen trees landed on her youngest brother's Scion that was parked there - he recently went active duty Army and is still in AIT.

The morning after the storm, though, she had to use her Mossberg to run off two assholes on ATV's that were eyeballing entrances to the house with an axe and empty bags - apparently looting. Since then all has been quiet but there's no power or water.

Some other family members managed to drive in yesterday afternoon with a truck and a chainsaw, and cleared the trees that were blocking the garage and road in to her property. Today she's packing up her valuables and will be heading north to Alabama where her oldest son (my GF's older little brother) is stationed until things come back together. He's married and has a spare bedroom for her thank goodness. We've instructed her to take a shitload of pictures of everything inside and outside of the house before she leaves.

I didn't bother telling her to barricade entrances, etc, because it's not going to stop a looter that wants in. But is there anything else she could do before she leaves?

[blues]

Anybody hear from Leroy Suggs ?

[RJ]

The morning after the storm, though, she had to use her Mossberg to run off two assholes on ATV's that were eyeballing entrances to the house with an axe and empty bags - apparently looting. Since then all has been quiet but there's no power or water.



Hope all turns out ok for your family.

The reason I quoted the above few lines is because your post made me stop, pause, and think. This is the first time it's occurred to me that there is a pretty solid reason for owning a shotgun, here in Florida.

I don't know why, because I've been in this situation quite a few times over the years. Certainly when Hurricane Charley came through Orlando in 2004 when I lived in Winter Park, I have a very vivid memory of standing outside at night, in the quiet, with only the buzzing of the insects and distant hum of a few generators. It was very dark. And very unnerving.

I've got zip for shotgun experience, but I think I know a web site where I can get some good advice...:cool:

[Grey]

BiL just had his car totalled due to storm surge

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

[Hambo]

That footage of Tyndall is less than 2 miles from where my Girlfriend grew up. Her old neighborhood just north of Tyndall is completely leveled. Along with her old elementary school, middle school, and high school too.

Her Mother, thank goodness, now lives further inland about 30mins north of Panama City. Trees went down all over her property but miraculously none hit her house directly. The house suffered some roof damage but no water got in, and lost a window or two. One of the fallen trees landed on her youngest brother's Scion that was parked there - he recently went active duty Army and is still in AIT.

The morning after the storm, though, she had to use her Mossberg to run off two assholes on ATV's that were eyeballing entrances to the house with an axe and empty bags - apparently looting. Since then all has been quiet but there's no power or water.

Some other family members managed to drive in yesterday afternoon with a truck and a chainsaw, and cleared the trees that were blocking the garage and road in to her property. Today she's packing up her valuables and will be heading north to Alabama where her oldest son (my GF's older little brother) is stationed until things come back together. He's married and has a spare bedroom for her thank goodness. We've instructed her to take a shitload of pictures of everything inside and outside of the house before she leaves.

I didn't bother telling her to barricade entrances, etc, because it's not going to stop a looter that wants in. But is there anything else she could do before she leaves?

Looting in rural areas, with no power, no video, and where some storm victims will never be found...is a special kind of stupid.

[JRB]

Hope all turns out ok for your family.

The reason I quoted the above few lines is because your post made me stop, pause, and think. This is the first time it's occurred to me that there is a pretty solid reason for owning a shotgun, here in Florida.

I don't know why, because I've been in this situation quite a few times over the years. Certainly when Hurricane Charley came through Orlando in 2004 when I lived in Winter Park, I have a very vivid memory of standing outside at night, in the quiet, with only the buzzing of the insects and distant hum of a few generators. It was very dark. And very unnerving.

I've got zip for shotgun experience, but I think I know a web site where I can get some good advice...:cool:

I haven't ever discussed it with her directly, but I believe Mom's got some shotgun experience because there's a solid streak of bonafide southern redneck in her bloodline. So lifted trucks with loud pipes, 30-packs, BBQ pits, loud rock and country music, and pump shotguns all have cultural significance. I'm pretty damn okay with that, to be honest.

It's my intent to get her some real time on pistols and rifles sooner rather than later, but she knows her way around a 12ga pump. I'm damn glad she had it when she needed it.

Frankly I can't imagine any practical reason *not* to own a decent pump 12ga, regardless of where one lives.


Looting in rural areas, with no power, no video, and where some storm victims will never be found...is a special kind of stupid.

I've observed an abundance of that 'special kind of stupid' in the past 5+ years, and it's only getting more abundant. Probably because good folks like my soon-to-be Mother-in-law aren't inclined to lethally punish it every time it's warranted.

[blues]

I got a message on my home phone from "hubcap" (now user name: Leroy Suggs) while I was downstairs working out.

He is safe and sound but home and property took a bunch of damage. Trees down, oak laying on his house etc.

Power may be out 25 to 30 days per estimate. Said it looks like a war zone...everything in the area just wiped out.

He said he can travel about 30 minutes away for supplies.

Please keep him and our other members in your thoughts.

[Drang]

We've instructed her to take a shitload of pictures of everything inside and outside of the house before she leaves.

I didn't bother telling her to barricade entrances, etc, because it's not going to stop a looter that wants in. But is there anything else she could do before she leaves?
Call her insurance. Give them a preliminary report of damage, and contact information for where she will be. See if local constabulary will also be interested in "We're seeking shelter with relatives at {location, contact information}, here is the status of the house/property."

And, yes, photograph everything, grab key papers (deeds and legal documents, medical records, etc.)

One lesson I took away from last year's Hurricane Irma experience, is that one should register with FEMA for disaster assistance ASAP after the storm. You may not qualify for aid from FEMA, but registering will let you know if there is other money/grants/assistance available to you, including the Red Cross, the Small Business Administration, the VA, etc.

I'd suggest registering whether you need it or not; you may not need it, until black mold develops in the crawl space two years down the road and it can be traced to the storm surge from the hurricane, but the time period to register expired two months after the Presidential Declaration. You may need a new roof, but the Corps of Engineers Blue Tarp operation wrapped up (so to speak) after one month.

Call your insurance, and then self-register, don't wait for the FEMA vests. The FEMA guys go where the local government wants them, and they may spend all their time in areas that are a crucial political constituency, even of they didn't suffer that badly. You can self-register on the internet or your cell phone, if you have service. If you're a business owner, you register for yourself/home, and then there's an option in there for the business.

Home owners must register the home; tenants (kids, sub-lease, whatever) can only register as "renters", i.e., personal property only, not structural damage.

Actually, I only saw a few homes that were "destroyed" in the parts of Florida I was at. But there were a lot of leaky roofs...

[zuplex]

Power is being steadily restored in Tallahassee. The main roads are open, as are many restaurants, hotels, grocery stores, and shops. Plenty of places to cool off, charge stuff, and get food. People have gotten stupid at driving though.

If any PF members have family or friends in the Tallahassee area who need help, PM me and I'll see how I can assist, directly or indirectly.

[JRB]

Call her insurance. Give them a preliminary report of damage, and contact information for where she will be. See if local constabulary will also be interested in "We're seeking shelter with relatives at {location, contact information}, here is the status of the house/property."

And, yes, photograph everything, grab key papers (deeds and legal documents, medical records, etc.)

One lesson I took away from last year's Hurricane Irma experience, is that one should register with FEMA for disaster assistance ASAP after the storm. You may not qualify for aid from FEMA, but registering will let you know if there is other money/grants/assistance available to you, including the Red Cross, the Small Business Administration, the VA, etc.

I'd suggest registering whether you need it or not; you may not need it, until black mold develops in the crawl space two years down the road and it can be traced to the storm surge from the hurricane, but the time period to register expired two months after the Presidential Declaration. You may need a new roof, but the Corps of Engineers Blue Tarp operation wrapped up (so to speak) after one month.

Call your insurance, and then self-register, don't wait for the FEMA vests. The FEMA guys go where the local government wants them, and they may spend all their time in areas that are a crucial political constituency, even of they didn't suffer that badly. You can self-register on the internet or your cell phone, if you have service. If you're a business owner, you register for yourself/home, and then there's an option in there for the business.

Home owners must register the home; tenants (kids, sub-lease, whatever) can only register as "renters", i.e., personal property only, not structural damage.

Actually, I only saw a few homes that were "destroyed" in the parts of Florida I was at. But there were a lot of leaky roofs...

Outstandingly good advice, Mr. Drang. Thank you!
If we're ever in the same zip code, I owe you an adult beverage or two.

[hufnagel]

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/michael/index.html#17/30.07548/-85.59413

.... Wow...

[MGW]

So unofficially I might have heard that Florida is asking for National Guard help from other states. Specifically heavy equipment engineer support. This is very similar to the support that went to PR this time last year.

A big understatement for me to say this but it’s a really bad situation there. They need all the help they can get.

[Drang]

HURRICANE WILLA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?cone#contents)

31561

[Drang]

1055916132241162240

Also (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2):

31743

[Drang]

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5)

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers activity has increased and become a little better organized
today in association with a tropical wave located about 350 miles
east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are
forecast to gradually become more conducive for development by
Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is expected to form
by the middle of the week. The system will move westward to
west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of
the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
(emphasis added)
The Hurricane Season The Never Ended!!!

(Well, okay, didn't end until December 31st...)

[Inkwell 41]

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5)

(emphasis added)
The Hurricane Season The Never Ended!!!

(Well, okay, didn't end until December 31st...)

On the up side, maybe Palm Beach county's election office will take a direct hit before they get to count votes again.

[Drang]

More likely: "Look at these boxes of ballots that washed ashore!"

[Hambo]

The Hurricane Season The Never Ended!!!

(Well, okay, didn't end until December 31st...)

Technically it ends at the end of November, except in 2005 when the last one occurred in January https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season


On the up side, maybe Palm Beach county's election office will take a direct hit before they get to count votes again.

Not so fast.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018111206&fh=90

[Inkwell 41]

Technically it ends at the end of November, except in 2005 when the last one occurred in January https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season



Not so fast.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018111206&fh=90

As Charlie Brown would say... "RATS!"