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Al T.
02-05-2012, 02:08 PM
I thought this has a high degree of relevance, though it's probably old news for the more "switched on" folks. I found that it ties in well to training I have taken. I also enjoyed reading this guy's analysis.

Introduction:

"While many say it is better to be lucky than good, no one is lucky every time. In this post I am going to attempt to provide some insight into street encounters. Other may have different viewpoints. I am not here to argue. I will say some of the comments I have seen posted in the threads about this sort of matter make me realize that while some ARFCOMMERS are clearly street veterans others are not. This is really for those who are not. " (snip)

Link:

http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_8_38/477114_Must_read_post_from_GD.html

NETim
02-05-2012, 02:58 PM
I thought this has a high degree of relevance, though it's probably old news for the more "switched on" folks. I found that it ties in well to training I have taken. I also enjoyed reading this guy's analysis.

Introduction:

"While many say it is better to be lucky than good, no one is lucky every time. In this post I am going to attempt to provide some insight into street encounters. Other may have different viewpoints. I am not here to argue. I will say some of the comments I have seen posted in the threads about this sort of matter make me realize that while some ARFCOMMERS are clearly street veterans others are not. This is really for those who are not. " (snip)

Link:

http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_8_38/477114_Must_read_post_from_GD.html

Very interesting reading.

BaiHu
02-05-2012, 04:24 PM
Nice gut shot breakdown on awareness. I wonder what the stats are on the 'fake gun' ploy. Whereas I agree that 'attitude and awareness' are the first line of self defense, I wonder what someone like SouthNarc and some of the other LEOs think about that ploy when they don't buy it and your stuck with your hand down your pants.

phil_in_cs
02-05-2012, 04:50 PM
what is the "GD" they are referring to?

Al T.
02-05-2012, 04:54 PM
BaiHu, sometimes a bluff works... And sometimes it doesn't. If not, you are no worse off than before.

Phil, suspect it's "General Discussion". I'm not a member of that web site.

JHC
02-05-2012, 05:29 PM
I've used the "bluff" three times. It broke off pursuit each time. Once it WAS a bluff. The other two times, it wasn't.

Joe Mamma
02-05-2012, 07:24 PM
I thought this has a high degree of relevance, though it's probably old news for the more "switched on" folks. I found that it ties in well to training I have taken. I also enjoyed reading this guy's analysis.

Introduction:

"While many say it is better to be lucky than good, no one is lucky every time. In this post I am going to attempt to provide some insight into street encounters. Other may have different viewpoints. I am not here to argue. I will say some of the comments I have seen posted in the threads about this sort of matter make me realize that while some ARFCOMMERS are clearly street veterans others are not. This is really for those who are not. " (snip)

Link:

http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_8_38/477114_Must_read_post_from_GD.html

Thanks for posting, it's very interesting.

Can someone explain what he is trying to say in the last 2 sentences of this?

* * * * *
In another case I was at a Christmas party and walked a girl to her car about 3 am. As we said our good-byes two guys were walking across the parking lot. One went behind a dumpster. I though he was peeing. He came out from behind the dumpster with a bottle.

As they got closer I stepped clear of that girl and unzipped my jacket at those two guys. When I did the guy threw down the bottle and they walked by cussing at me. If someone challenges you after you indicate you are armed say "I don't have a gun". Then they will know you do.
* * * * *


Joe Mamma

JHC
02-05-2012, 08:59 PM
The unzipping signaled he was getting ready to clear the garment for a draw. And the language "I don't have a gun" - I take it that this would be a commonly recognized "street" response when one DOES have a gun. A crude ploy similiar to saying "come and get some".

Al T.
02-05-2012, 08:59 PM
I ain't him, but I'll give you my take:


If someone challenges you after you indicate you are armed say "I don't have a gun". Then they will know you do.

Reverse bluff. Remember, these guys are edgy and figure anything you say will be a lie - cause that's what they do....

TCinVA
02-05-2012, 09:12 PM
If you've been through instruction with SouthNarc or Tom Givens you've heard most of what was posted...but unfortunately there aren't many who have.

What's surprising is that so far there hasn't been anyone disagreeing with everything the man said based on their extensive experience of having gone to a 7-11 at 2 AM that one time. Yet.

It'll happen. Eventually. And I'll die a little inside and wonder why we don't have the ability to punch someone in the face over TCP/IP yet.

UNK
02-05-2012, 09:52 PM
I read the article and found it enlightening. One thing that struck me was how callous these people are. Then I found this website and wow it seems a lot of the info was played out in actual crimes. http://www.lexingtonprosecutor.com/death_row.htm

BaiHu
02-05-2012, 10:14 PM
If you've been through instruction with SouthNarc or Tom Givens you've heard most of what was posted...but unfortunately there aren't many who have.

What's surprising is that so far there hasn't been anyone disagreeing with everything the man said based on their extensive experience of having gone to a 7-11 at 2 AM that one time. Yet.

It'll happen. Eventually. And I'll die a little inside and wonder why we don't have the ability to punch someone in the face over TCP/IP yet.

Well, after 23 years in the dojo, I can tell you that ANYONE wearing shoes around me, obviously means me harm. So when I see shoes, I grab my yellow track suit and nunchakus and go all WATTTAAAA on those shoe wearing homies :p

NETim
02-05-2012, 10:39 PM
If you've been through instruction with SouthNarc or Tom Givens you've heard most of what was posted...but unfortunately there aren't many who have.

What's surprising is that so far there hasn't been anyone disagreeing with everything the man said based on their extensive experience of having gone to a 7-11 at 2 AM that one time. Yet.

It'll happen. Eventually. And I'll die a little inside and wonder why we don't have the ability to punch someone in the face over TCP/IP yet.

Waingro may have only been a character in a movie, but he's real.

JHC
02-06-2012, 11:07 AM
I thought his take on when to draw was quite interesting and one of the aspects of his analysis that was somewhat outside much conventional wisdom. It certainly factors in with the long thread here about the utility of a fast draw. Fast is always better than slow etc etc but in the hand early is really fast.

A great co-read to this would be Coopers essay "The Deadly American" in the context of "being willing". I'm not aware of that essay being on line. Just in his book: "Fireworks".

Then a big wow was the author's very un-PC take on alchoholic beverages; which happened to match my take on it. Which is why I stay away from those threads on forums. ;)

turbolag23
02-06-2012, 01:33 PM
i thought that was a good read with some new interesting bits on mindset i hadnt heard before. i've heard before about being aggressive and bluffing but i hadnt heard the part about telling them you dont have a gun so they know you do.

bdcheung
02-06-2012, 02:02 PM
^^ that part still doesn't make any sense to me, but I grew up in the 'burbs my whole life.

tmoore912
02-06-2012, 02:38 PM
^^ that part still doesn't make any sense to me, but I grew up in the 'burbs my whole life.

Maybe this might help.


Under stress people give off verbal and non-verbal cues about things they want to conceal.

Police officer: You have anything on you I should know about?
Felon: Naw, man, I ain't got no gun!

The felon has just told the cop he has a gun. The same is true of the shirt-tail flap he mentioned. It's a non-verbal cue called a rehearsal movement....as in a movement somebody subconsciously does to rehearse drawing a handgun. There are other non-verbal cues that signal someone is working up to a criminal assault, but rehearsal movements are a big one.

By making a point of saying you don't have a gun, you're telling the guy who is sizing you up for a criminal assault that you have a gun. This may impact his decision to assault you.

I have no intention of telling someone I think is sizing me up for a criminal assault that I have a gun...but if I thought it would mean the difference between having to pull the trigger or not I might well indicate in the hopes it makes them knock it off.

http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1285487_Street_robberies_and_you___The_Basics.html&page=1#i32250561

TexBuckeye
02-06-2012, 03:35 PM
"No, I don't have a gun" is the sarcastic answer to the question that's going through the thug's mind from the time he saw you clear your cover garment. It's kind of like saying, "Just a little closer, that's a good boy" as you square up to him with your gun hand firmly on the grip.

TCinVA
02-07-2012, 02:00 PM
Maybe this might help.



http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1285487_Street_robberies_and_you___The_Basics.html&page=1#i32250561

That guy is an idiot.

I don't know that I would endorse the idea of verbalizing that you have a gun. Somebody like Tom Givens or Southnarc or Nyeti would be better reads on the utility of that strategy. I'm sure it would scare off some lower order scumbags, but I don't think that it would phase the higher order predators you're most likely to have to shoot.

phil_in_cs
02-07-2012, 02:18 PM
That guy is an idiot.

I don't know that I would endorse the idea of verbalizing that you have a gun. Somebody like Tom Givens or Southnarc or Nyeti would be better reads on the utility of that strategy. I'm sure it would scare off some lower order scumbags, but I don't think that it would phase the higher order predators you're most likely to have to shoot.

It goes against what SN teaches. While you are bluffing the one guy, his buddy is moving in behind you and you just told him you have something of serious value.

TCinVA
02-07-2012, 02:39 PM
That's my concern...it may scare off some guys, but if you're in the wrong situation you've just given the worst kind of guys information about you that they might find useful.

JHC
02-07-2012, 03:55 PM
Are you against any sort of cue that is generally grouped into a bluff? Like the fanning the shirt? Or just verbalizing "I don't have a gun"?

Do you mean the LEO author is an idiot or someone else posting on that AR15 thread?

TexBuckeye
02-07-2012, 04:06 PM
That's my concern...it may scare off some guys, but if you're in the wrong situation you've just given the worst kind of guys information about you that they might find useful.


Not that I disagree at all as I am thinking about this one pretty hard, but if they keep coming, one, weren't they coming to begin with, and two, haven't you just definitively identified a SERIOUS threat? It seems to me that a case is therefore made to support the original claim by identifying the worst of the worst before it's too late.

TCinVA
02-07-2012, 04:13 PM
Are you against any sort of cue that is generally grouped into a bluff? Like the fanning the shirt? Or just verbalizing "I don't have a gun"?

Do you mean the LEO author is an idiot or someone else posting on that AR15 thread?

I meant the person that was last quoted.

...which is me. You've made me explain an attempt at self-depreciating humor.

I curse you.

Anyway, as for "bluffs" or attempts to warn someone off a path of stupidity short of pulling the gun on them, I'm the wrong man to ask about the utility of that.


Not that I disagree at all as I am thinking about this one pretty hard, but if they keep coming, one, weren't they coming to begin with, and two, haven't you just definitively identified a SERIOUS threat? It seems to me that a case is therefore made to support the original claim by identifying the worst of the worst before it's too late.

...except when you're not identifying the worst of the worst and are instead relaying valuable information to a threat you don't fully recognize yet. To wit, the dude behind you that you don't see.

TexBuckeye
02-07-2012, 04:52 PM
I meant the person that was last quoted.

...which is me. You've made me explain an attempt at self-depreciating humor.

I curse you.

Anyway, as for "bluffs" or attempts to warn someone off a path of stupidity short of pulling the gun on them, I'm the wrong man to ask about the utility of that.



...except when you're not identifying the worst of the worst and are instead relaying valuable information to a threat you don't fully recognize yet. To wit, the dude behind you that you don't see.

There are always unknowns. But if I haven't given reason enough to stop the guys in front of me from continuing with their approach short of firing on them, I'll never have time to recognize the threat coming from behind me. But I might be reading you wrong, if you are saying screw the bluff and clear leather, then I can say that that is an approach that I could also deem prudent. After all, we aren't talking about simply passing someone on the sidewalk.

JHC
02-07-2012, 04:56 PM
I meant the person that was last quoted.

...which is me. You've made me explain an attempt at self-depreciating humor.

I curse you.

.

ROFL!!!

I'm so sorry. :D

EMC
02-07-2012, 05:37 PM
what is the "GD" they are referring to?

I could be wrong, but I caught the term "Gangster Disciples" in the article, although he mentions it in the beginning as if it is a geographical location, not a group of people.

Al T.
02-07-2012, 06:20 PM
EMC, no, it is the General Discussion area of that web site. Note that this different link shows that the post was originally in General Discussion. :)

http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1285487_Street_robberies_and_you___The_Basics.html

phil_in_cs
02-07-2012, 06:55 PM
Not that I disagree at all as I am thinking about this one pretty hard, but if they keep coming, one, weren't they coming to begin with, and two, haven't you just definitively identified a SERIOUS threat? It seems to me that a case is therefore made to support the original claim by identifying the worst of the worst before it's too late.

Criminals almost always work in groups - if you show what you have to the one you see, the ones you don't see know also. You've also just shown that you have something of serious value to them, either for street cred or to sell. Previously you might have $100 in your wallet and a ring or two - now you have a $500 to $1000 pistol. If they are as heartless as he says, the one behind you will shoot in the back of the head to take your pistol.

Southnarc in his Managing Unknown Contacts lessons and Crafty Dog in Die Less Often both teach to not telegraph your capabilities or attention. You're likely outnumbered, and surprise is a major weapon for you. You can get their DVDs and get a different treatment of this issue. I'm not saying the author of this is wrong, just that he's directly opposite what Southnarc and Crafty teach.

JodyH
02-07-2012, 08:18 PM
I do think the "bluff" is a viable tactic. (Although it's not really a bluff if you can and will carry out your threat).
Maybe "hard target indicator" would be better than "bluff".
The one I've used the most is the quick pat/touch of the folder clipped in my pocket.
It's one of those implied threats that tends to register in the feral mind, yet doesn't give away that I have a gun.
All the advantages of a threat display (folding knife) without showing my trump card (gun).
It also conveniently places my hand in a good AIWB draw position.
It tells the badguy that I have a knife, I checked my knife, and he might get cut if he tries me.

I'm a fan of the pre-emptive draw, but not a fan of using the gun as a brandish/threat.
I may pre-emptive draw to give myself an advantage, but optimally the first thing the bad guy sees of my gun is the muzzle flash.
Other than that I think the article was well written.

BaiHu
02-08-2012, 09:41 AM
The one concern I have in this method of 'bluffing' is that in NJ, 99.9% of the time it's going to be a bluff by a non-gang banger. So, I think this whole discussion has to have some context as to what your state's rights are regarding CCW. Then, what if you indicate you have a weapon to bluff them off and you don't vs indicating you carry and you really do.

I think if I indicated that I had something, and was asked if I had a weapon, I'd be safer being stone cold silent, keeping my head on a swivel and edging toward cover. I just don't want to trade my bluff in for bullets when I have nothing to fire back with.

SouthNarc
02-08-2012, 12:06 PM
I disagree with telling someone you don't have a gun when you do mainly because I think the tactic is predicated upon a pretty comfortable level of scumbag interaction that most average people just don't have. There are alot of things that I do that I don't teach beacause I know that my audience will never have the reference points that I do. Bluffing and aggressively posturing is a level of tactical nuance that can be mentored to someone over time but can't be assimilated by reading an article or taking a weekend course.

Al T.
02-08-2012, 12:44 PM
scumbag interaction that most average people just don't have

Agree and I certainly don't want to gain any either. :p

Thanks for weighing in. Your expertise is appreciated.

BaiHu
02-08-2012, 02:04 PM
I disagree with telling someone you don't have a gun when you do mainly because I think the tactic is predicated upon a pretty comfortable level of scumbag interaction that most average people just don't have. There are alot of things that I do that I don't teach beacause I know that my audience will never have the reference points that I do. Bluffing and aggressively posturing is a level of tactical nuance that can be mentored to someone over time but can't be assimilated by reading an article or taking a weekend course.

Thanks for weighing in, I feel good that my instincts were aligned with you SouthNarc and not ready to adopt this anecdote as a rule of thumb. I will have to get to one of your classes over the next 12 months.

SLG
02-08-2012, 03:59 PM
I disagree with telling someone you don't have a gun when you do mainly because I think the tactic is predicated upon a pretty comfortable level of scumbag interaction that most average people just don't have. There are alot of things that I do that I don't teach beacause I know that my audience will never have the reference points that I do. Bluffing and aggressively posturing is a level of tactical nuance that can be mentored to someone over time but can't be assimilated by reading an article or taking a weekend course.

This should not be taken lightly. How you say it is way more important than what you say, in this situation. Most people will not be able to say it correctly without having prior, authentic experience with the specific type of scumbag present.

I've seen it done many times for real. I've been on both ends of doing it. Most of the time, I would not be able to pull this off, so I let my body language do the talking, and keep my mouth shut as much as I can.

Tom Givens
02-08-2012, 04:33 PM
I don't have a lot of time to add much to this discussion. (I wish I were a faster typist. I need some training in that regard.)

I agree completely with Southnarc on the "typical" or "average" middle class student becoming able to confidently banter with street thugs. For that reason I am opposed to getting into discussions with suspects. Move to 3 or 9 so you can check for his partner, keep moving, and limit verbal responses to one or two words. All requests should be met with "No". Again, keep moving. Your goal is to disengage, not verbally spar.

However, as to the original material's description of the mindset and orientation of the hold-up man, I agree 100%. I can't vouch that the author is who he says he is, but he certainly sounds like someone who has dealt with violent criminals for some time. They are feral humans, and share no more mental/emotional/moral characteristics with a domesticated man than does a feral cat and a fat, happy house cat. Think of them as normal, rational, socialized persons at your own peril.

JodyH
02-08-2012, 06:17 PM
In my previous job (construction foreman) I dealt with a lot of ex-cons and future cons.
You cannot beat them at hustling, once you're engaged in conversation with them they have the advantage.
Street hustlers have negotiation skills that would put Donald Trump to shame.
Keep that in mind anytime a street hustler asks you for the time, a light, directions... that's his opening bid for everything you have on you (and maybe your life).

TCinVA
02-08-2012, 11:41 PM
Thank you, gentlemen, for contributing your view. I had the exact same concerns when I read that bit for the exact same reasons:

Predators know what predators look like, act like, and sound like. There are no magic words that make a scared, pudgy middle-aged accountant transform into a predator in the eyes of the real thing.

"Hard" men can probably pull off a bluff. Most people who are carrying concealed...myself included...aren't "hard" men.

Shellback
02-09-2012, 01:44 AM
A good read and I appreciate everyone else's insight into the matter. I think it would make a good "primer" for a lot of people who aren't as aware of the predators that are prowling our streets.

nar472
02-09-2012, 07:25 PM
I read the article and found it enlightening. One thing that struck me was how callous these people are. Then I found this website and wow it seems a lot of the info was played out in actual crimes. http://www.lexingtonprosecutor.com/death_row.htm

This ^^ is very sobering but definitely is a good view of the lack of respect these type of people really have for your life.




Wow, very informative thread, what an eye opener, thanks guys.

NETim
02-09-2012, 08:19 PM
I'll never forget the first time I read Ayoob's "In The Gravest Extreme." What an eye-opener.

The idea that some humans believe they have a "right" to do violence was, and still is, a completely foreign concept.

But I understand now that kind of mind does exist.

I need to read the book again.

CharlieW
02-11-2012, 11:54 PM
Great thread - really a lot of thoughtful discussion. I think I am going to like this forum.

superscribe
02-12-2012, 02:38 AM
I read the thread. the entire thread. i think burned out leo is teaching things that are effective for him, and other people who can visualize and sympathize with him. I think he's really trying to teach a mindset, not tactics. i worry about all the questions that get asked on this thread, and the other. things like... 'what is fanning your shirt?' how you fan your shirt is probably the most important thing.

tons of posters are trying to figure out why you would tell somebody "i don't have a gun". you say that because you know that the rats are up to no good, and you want an excuse to get messy, so you tell a bad lie, because then they can pick up on how you're feeling. the whole point is to let them know you have a certain mindset. the key being, you actually have to have the mindset. if you don't it'll probably sound stupid, or you might say it at the wrong time. it's not about bluffing. it's about telling the truth in a way that they understand.

and if you have the mindset, you should absolutely let them know, because it makes you less of an opportunity. the whole discussion was about the possibility of being an opportunity. if somebody has the jump on you and wants to mess you up, you are already a big opportunity, and the little script of catch words some people follow is very different. it's a different discussion altogether.

TCinVA
02-14-2012, 12:09 PM
True...and it goes right back to what SouthNarc mentioned earlier: There are a bunch of different dynamics involved in trying to bluff a bad guy or otherwise dissuade him from an attack without pulling a gun/shooting him in the face. If you're trying to make a professional predator think you are an unpleasant risk there's much more to it than a few magic words.