Conspiracy Theories and "keeping an open mind"

[Joe in PNG]

Our academics like Glenn can expand on this further.
The scientific method (super simplified) involves finding not only the facts that prove your theory, but actively looking for the facts that disprove your theory. If your theory is not working, better to "shoot your own dog" and dismiss it yourself.
If your theory is sooper complicated, then maybe you need to apply Occam's Razor.

Most tinfoil hat conspiracy theories just look only for the facts that prove their ideas, and nothing more. Even those facts that are found to be part of the noise typical of the first few days of an event like this.
They pick up facts the same way one may carefully pick out the occasional black grain of sand on the beaches around Destin Florida. With time and patience, they can fill a bucket, then go around arguing that the beaches of the Florida Panhandle are really black, and there's an conspiracy to make people think otherwise.

[Kirk]

Our academics like Glenn can expand on this further.
The scientific method (super simplified) involves finding not only the facts that prove your theory, but actively looking for the facts that disprove your theory. If your theory is not working, better to "shoot your own dog" and dismiss it yourself.
If your theory is sooper complicated, then maybe you need to apply Occam's Razor.

Most tinfoil hat conspiracy theories just look only for the facts that prove their ideas, and nothing more. Even those facts that are found to be part of the noise typical of the first few days of an event like this.
They pick up facts the same way one may carefully pick out the occasional black grain of sand on the beaches around Destin Florida. With time and patience, they can fill a bucket, then go around arguing that the beaches of the Florida Panhandle are really black, and there's an conspiracy to make people think otherwise.

This is a great post.

The conspiracy theories that pop up after these events are always ridiculous. The conspiracy theorists always forget one thing: government incompetence. In a government that cannot keep virtually anything from leaking and that has apparent cyber-security ran by Equifax, we are expected to believe that they pulled off 9/11 (for oil?) and are responsible for numerous mass shootings for gun legislation (which have all failed up to now). Please. Everyone is now pointing to errors in the timeline as some type of proof of a cover up, when in actuality this is an incredibly complex investigation. I am not an LEO, don't pretend to be an expert on any of these matters, but I believe that the Las Vegas PD has been an open book on this case. They seem to be doing a fantastic job at getting information out and also owning any mistakes. +1 to them.

[SamAdams]

IMO it's important to gather as much information as possible before putting forward any theories. One looks for inconsistencies and logical fallacies with a neutral frame of mind.
The label 'conspiracy theory' can also limit one's thinking. It can be used as an ad hominem attack.

We don't know what happened in Vegas yet. It's an ongoing investigation. But, there are many times in history when the narrative has changed with the release of more relevant information. (Usually with the passage of a great deal of time, and often after the deaths of the participants.) Examples include the fact that FDR knew the threat to Pearl Harbor. He goaded the Japanese on several fronts in order to get the US into the war. This is historical fact. The US Senate even exonerated the Navy & Army Pearl commanders who were unjustly blamed.
Likewise, LBJ used a fake 'attack' on a US warship as an excuse to massively expand the US role in the Vietnam War. This has also been proven.

Yes, there are some seemingly outrageous theories floating around regarding Vegas. We'll see how it all works out. Best not to come to judgement too quickly, even regarding what at first glance stirs an emotion based revulsion.


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[holmes168]

IMO it's important to gather as much information as possible before putting forward any theories. One looks for inconsistencies and logical fallacies with a neutral frame of mind.
The label 'conspiracy theory' can also limit one's thinking. It can be used as an ad hominem attack.

We don't know what happened in Vegas yet. It's an ongoing investigation. But, there are many times in history when the narrative has changed with the release of more relevant information. (Usually with the passage of a great deal of time, and often after the deaths of the participants.) Examples include the fact that FDR knew the threat to Pearl Harbor. He goaded the Japanese on several fronts in order to get the US into the war. This is historical fact. The US Senate even exonerated the Navy & Army Pearl commanders who were unjustly blamed.
Likewise, LBJ used a fake 'attack' on a US warship as an excuse to massively expand the US role in the Vietnam War. This has also been proven.

Yes, there are some seemingly outrageous theories floating around regarding Vegas. We'll see how it all works out. Best not to come to judgement too quickly, even regarding what at first glance stirs an emotion based revulsion.


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Interesting and very correct post- remember the Warren Commission? It was fact that LHO killed JFK, but how many people believe that now? There are plenty of other examples of facts later being shown to be false.
I know this is a fact based topic and mostly people have tried to follow the purpose of Enel's original goal. I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I do try to keep an open mind on what is reported by the government and the media.
I really do not believe that anyone knows what the real motives of the shooter were.

[Joe in PNG]

Examples include the fact that FDR knew the threat to Pearl Harbor. He goaded the Japanese on several fronts in order to get the US into the war. This is historical fact. The US Senate even exonerated the Navy & Army Pearl commanders who were unjustly blamed.

If you mean that there was an idea that something may happen in early December, you would be right.
If you mean that FDR knew that a carrier group was heading to Pearl to force an attack on December 7th, you would be very wrong.

The reason we use the phrase "Conspiracy Theory" in such a derisive manner is because those who hold to them tend to go into the utterly ridiculous- nonsense like modern flat earthers, anti-vaxxers, 911 Truthers, Sandy Hookers, and the like. If I only had a dollar for every person who said "keep an open mind", and then proceeded to reject any evidence contrary to something they once saw on yootoob, I'd be able to pay the initiation fee for the Discordian Society (Hail Eris!).

Now, historically, do we find governments trying to do nefarious things secretly? Sure- Watergate is a great example of this. But, if your little theory involves a government or quasi-government agency being super-competent to the point of omniscience, you are probably a kook.

[critter]

The reason we use the phrase "Conspiracy Theory" in such a derisive manner is because those who hold to them tend to go into the utterly ridiculous- nonsense like modern flat earthers...

Well, that's demonstrably false. I mean, it's covered with 'stuff' all over the place. Were the earth flat, every bit of that stuff would have been push off the edge by cats eons ago.

[Joe in PNG]

Well, that's demonstrably false. I mean, it's covered with 'stuff' all over the place. Were the earth flat, every bit of that stuff would have been push off the edge by cats eons ago.

That's what the cats want you to think.

[SamAdams]

https://www.thenewamerican.com/culture/history/item/4740-pearl-harbor-hawaii-was-surprised-fdr-was-not



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[El Cid]

https://www.thenewamerican.com/culture/history/item/4740-pearl-harbor-hawaii-was-surprised-fdr-was-not



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Even if that were true - what's it got to do with the thread topic?