North Korea - Nuke Capabilities

[SamAdams]

Interesting article & video showing results of private analysts evaluation of N. Korean ICBM program. According to them, it's already too late for an effective military response. They now have the capability to strike the U.S. mainland. -


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-05/decoders-offer-dire-warnings-about-north-koreas-nuclear-program

[TiroFijo]

If not right now, in a little while... :eek: :eek: :eek:

[SamAdams]

I found their use of open source materials to do the analysis very interesting.

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com


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[TiroFijo]

Any new analysis on the new missile yet?

The entire USA in range now?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-fires-missile-for-the-first-time-in-more-than-two-months/2017/11/28/0c136952-d46c-11e7-9461-ba77d604373d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_nkoreamissile-2p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.b71e99a9316c

[5pins]

Any new analysis on the new missile yet?

The entire USA in range now?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-fires-missile-for-the-first-time-in-more-than-two-months/2017/11/28/0c136952-d46c-11e7-9461-ba77d604373d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_nkoreamissile-2p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.b71e99a9316c

http://www.38north.org/2017/11/melleman112917/


North Korea appears to have taken another minor step forward as it attempts to mature its ICBM technology. Many more tests are needed to establish the missile’s performance and reliability, and it remains unclear if the North’s engineers have attempted to validate the efficacy of the missile’s re-entry vehicle. Though North Korea continues to progress, our assessments have not changed in that a viable ICBM capable of reaching the west coast of the US mainland still remains about a year away.

[Jeep]

And getting an operational ICBM is only the first step. Fitting an H bomb on a missile is no easy task. Nevertheless, there is no way that the Norks could have gone from exploding a 15kt bomb last year to a 300 kt one this year without outside help.

That 15kt bomb was likely a plutonium bomb--which they had been squibbing for years. Suddenly they had one that worked. And, of course, a plutonium bomb is the gateway to an H bomb, but exploding a working 300kt unit only a year after first achieving a fully operational plutonium bomb? Somebody very skilled has to be helping them, and those same somebodies can be presumed to know how to miniaturize a 300kt unit so that it won't weigh too much or unbalance the missile.

Guidance was historically the most difficult thing, but my guess is that they will simply use GPS.

Aren't we all glad that the Obama administration slashed the missile defense budget because as Joe Biden famously said, "there is no threat"?

We have a very big problem--the biggest in my lifetime, I think--and a very short time to make sure that we have the missile defense we need.

[theJanitor]

The first of every month, at 1145, the State of Hawaii tests their civil defense sirens. For the first time in decades, we're going to hear the attack siren too

[TGS]

Nukes are only 1 part of the CBRNE threat.

Don't need no H-bomb to wipe out a significant portion of America's society. Lobbing diseased carcasses over the castle walls is just as effective today as the medieval times....

[Glenn E. Meyer]

Missile defense is a long discussed issue. The current systems and those in the forseeable future might knock down 50% of incoming. That might be useful in a real war but it doesn't deter NK or anyone from having the weapons as hitting 5 cities instead of 10 would certainly wreck our economy for a long, long time as well as the horrible death toll.

The moment has passed to get rid of the NK bombs unless you want a full scale nuclear first strike on NK. Emergency meetings of the Security Council only serve to get them some pizza and beer for the evening whine fest. So how do we live with this? We live with Russian, Pakistani and Chinese weapons. Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama - did nothing. What else is new?

[Glenn E. Meyer]

Does missile defense work well enough that we can just take it for granted that NK is not a threat?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/04/world/middleeast/saudi-missile-defense.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=photo-spot-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Missile defense is really chancy. I'm still betting that NK never gives up its nukes and missiles. Also, we aren't starting a war. I don't think Japan and SK will be ok on being hit NOW because we are scared of the future.

[TAZ]

I don’t believe that we have the capability to hit an ICBM on the way down. It’s like hitting a bullet with a bullet. Low % shot and the question is what happens to the warhead. A nuke isn’t necessarily a precision weapon. It doesn’t need to land in the middle of LA to cause mayhem.

IMO the best bet is to kill it after launch, but that would require constant airborne surveillance and response capability.

Ding dong probably has US uranium and guidance systems thanks to the Clinton syndicate, so we should take him seriously.

I’m not sure that the genie can be put back in the bottle. Not really sure, aside from assassination or an attack by even Bush 1 would have stopped this. China owns this and no matter who would have ended up running the place they would have been marched down this path.

Threat him the same way we treated Russia. 24/7/365 bombers orbiting in staging areas ready to wipe the planet of even cockroaches in the area. Isolate and let them starve and implode like Russia did. Identify anyone aiding him and kill them on the spot. Fat boy wants to live as much as the Russians wanted to live. He is not the self sacrificing type.

[JTQ]

Threat him the same way we treated Russia. 24/7/365 bombers orbiting in staging areas ready to wipe the planet of even cockroaches in the area.
Probably not doable today due to a lack of assets. In addition, a repeat of a few of the accidents that occurred during Operation Chrome Dome wouldn't go over very well today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chrome_Dome

[TAZ]

Probably not doable today due to a lack of assets. In addition, a repeat of a few of the accidents that occurred during Operation Chrome Dome wouldn't go over very well today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chrome_Dome

Assets can be made available. I mean how many carrier groups do we have parked there now?

You are correct though. In today’s world there is no one with the balls to do what we did in the Cold War. I can see some tranny suing fed gov for not having an appropriate bathroom on a B52.

Something is going to have give. We can’t pre-emptively whack em and we really can’t wait till he nukes a large metro either here or in SK or Japan. And we sure as hell cant give in to him again.

Either we suck it up and handle a few aircrews crashing or subs taking damage or whatever or we suck it up and LA glows in the dark.

[Catshooter]

". . . LA glows in the dark."

Oh, sorry. I was just thinkin' there fer a minute.


Cat

[5pins]

Winters coming!

And so are the Olympics. So don't expect anything to happen anytime soon.

[GardoneVT]

Assets can be made available. I mean how many carrier groups do we have parked there now?

You are correct though. In today’s world there is no one with the balls to do what we did in the Cold War. I can see some tranny suing fed gov for not having an appropriate bathroom on a B52.

Something is going to have give. We can’t pre-emptively whack em and we really can’t wait till he nukes a large metro either here or in SK or Japan. And we sure as hell cant give in to him again.

Either we suck it up and handle a few aircrews crashing or subs taking damage or whatever or we suck it up and LA glows in the dark.

We still have functional SSBN submarines in service.
One such sub can turn NK into a silicon mirror faster then I can order a pizza.As such standing SAC-style alerts aren't needed.

[JTQ]

We still have functional SSBN submarines in service.
One such sub can turn NK into a silicon mirror faster then I can order a pizza.As such standing SAC-style alerts aren't needed.
Part of the "SAC-style alerts" was preservation of assets. At this point it is probably unlikely the North Koreans have the assets at their end to target enough of our assets for that to be an issue, notwithstanding the fact that we only have two B-52 Wings.