Thin slicing? Sources?

[dogcaller]

In a recent thread, "thin slicing predatory behavior" or something similar was mentioned. It linked to an FBI article, which I read, but was pretty specific to LEOs, and another article, which sounded promising but had a dead link. I'm not sure where the "thin-slicing" term originated but I'm very interested in learning more about this concept. That is--how criminals/predators select victims, how they think, how we can make ourselves less attractive targets, etc. If anyone can provide some links or resources, I'll appreciate it.

[xmanhockey7]

Thin-slicing is rapid decision making with limited information. William Aprill talks about it in his class Unthinkable. I'd highly recommend taking it. Look into the Grayson-Stein Study.

We as normal people thin-slice all the time. For example: we take one look at someone and say "that guy looks like he's a prick". We came to that conclusion simply based on his looks. Another example is Ted Williams when he said he could tell the difference between a 300 hitter and everyone else simply by hearing them hit the ball. As it turns out, he really could.

[okie john]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thin-slicing

Malcolm Gladwell wrote "Blink" about the idea of thin-slicing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blink_(book)


Okie John

[HCM]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thin-slicing

Malcolm Gladwell wrote "Blink" about the idea of thin-slicing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blink_(book)


Okie John

Just to clarify Malcolm Gladwell did not originate the concept of thin slicing.

[okie john]

Just to clarify Malcolm Gladwell did not originate the concept of thin slicing.

Agreed. But he writes about in an entertaining way.


Okie John

[imp1295]

He may show up in this thread. But, William April, when asked recommended this - Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious by Gerd Gigerenzer - http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000TO0T8U?keywords=Gut%20Feelings%3A%20The%20Inte lligence%20of%20the%20Unconscious%20Gerd%20Gigeren zer&qid=1452599876&ref_=sr_1_1&s=digital-text&sr=1-1 as one of the foundations that Gladwell stole his ideas from.

I've read it and a few others. In laymen term, its all about Heuristics and how everyone using them and how it is nearly impossible to live without them. Good read, and supposedly better than his previous versions.

[Tiffany Johnson]

In a recent thread, "thin slicing predatory behavior" or something similar was mentioned....That is--how criminals/predators select victims, how they think, how we can make ourselves less attractive targets, etc.
Actually, this class would have been perfect (https://pistol-forum.com/showthread.php?17155-Southnarc-Aprill-Givens-Establishing-a-Dominance-Paradigm)! But unfortunately, you just missed it this weekend. If you're coming to the Tactical Conference (http://rangemaster.com/2016-tactical-conference/), William Aprill (http://www.mdtstraining.com/william-aprill/) will be covering this topic (http://rangemaster.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/TacConf2016_Schedule_Full.pdf) again there too. Otherwise, I'd try to catch one of William's Unthinkable classes (https://www.google.com/search?q=%22william+aprill%22+unthinkable&oq=%22william+aprill%22+unthinkable&aqs=chrome..69i57.5782j0j4&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8) (as others have already mentioned). Good stuff! :-)

[JustOneGun]

For me I got more information out of looking into "Heuristic Decision Making" than "Blink" and "Thin slicing".

[voodoo_man]

I think this feeds into "active discrimination" of possible contacts.

From personal experience its all about demeanor, locale and statistical probability.

[JustOneGun]

I think this feeds into "active discrimination" of possible contacts.

From personal experience its all about demeanor, locale and statistical probability.



Voodoo, can you expand on how you use statistical probability? I'm not sure I agree with you as it pertains to discrimination.

[John Hearne]

While written for the LE world, the FBI Study - Violent Encounters - discusses how criminals make decisions to assault to not based on very small observations.

[voodoo_man]

Voodoo, can you expand on how you use statistical probability? I'm not sure I agree with you as it pertains to discrimination.

Without getting into it too in dept, because i could write a thesis on this subject alone.

Specific areas are more likely to produce a statistical probability of contact than others, especially when you calculate other specific factors.

[JustOneGun]

Voodoo man thanks for replying. My pea brain was going in a very different direction.

To the OP: I suggest expanding your research to just more than thin slicing and move into the different ways we as humans think, with thin slicing being just one. The reason is that while bad guys use thin slicing, we can never know what their cognitive biases are. Those biases determine how their thin slicing works. No matter our depth of knowledge on the subject what we end up with in criminal deselection is a list of do and don't behaviors that give us a lower statistical chance of not being selected. We only need a bit of knowledge in order to place that list into context for our own lives. The trick is getting the list of do and don't behaviors. As someone said, just go take the Givens, Southnarc and Aprill class. LOL.

IMHO the value in learning more about thin slicing, heuristics and biases comes from our own use of thin slicing and how we can avoid the negative biases while promoting the positive. As a police officer I was always shocked at how seemingly intelligent people with good common sense would place themselves into harms way because of some fault of logic. Then again as I get older and older I have seen myself do it. It's more about lessening the occurrence. Hence I often use the old saying, "There but by the grace of G_d go I."

[voodoo_man]

Just to point out, while there may be specific actions many people will do there is no standard of actions that indicate premeditation or the like.