What's your state and local elections looking like for tomorrow?

[LittleLebowski]

Going back to red hopefully? Personally, I'm hoping for Grimes to lose and Mia Love to win.

[GardoneVT]

Going back to red hopefully? Personally, I'm hoping for Grimes to lose and Mia Love to win.

In my neck of the woods, the GOP is poised to gain a Senate seat as the Democrat incumbent is wisely retiring . Let us hope we the people can remove any trace of anti gun representation throught the Senate and House tomorrow.

[Palmguy]

Our gubernatorial race is very tight, and our legislature should get even more red. I could really do without 4 years of having to see and hear Charlie Crist again, even if he couldn't do a whole lot of damage given the Republican legislature.

[RoyGBiv]

Abbott is looking good over Wendy Davis but it's not a lock.
Abbott has gone on record promising to sign OC and campus carry legislation. Getting a bill out of committee will be the real work.

[TR675]

Texas GOP is in pretty good shape this year, as always, although who knows how long that will last with Dan Patrick as Lt. Gov.

[EricP]

House of Representatives District 1 is a toss up. Shea-Porter (D) vs. Guinta (R)
House of Representatives District 2 doesn't look good. Kuster (D) vs. Garcia (R)
Senate is a toss up. Shaheen (D) vs. Brown (r)
Governor is a toss up. Hassan (D) vs. Havenstein (R)

All D's are incumbent.

[RoyGBiv]

House of Representatives District 1 is a toss up. Shea-Porter (D) vs. Guinta (R)
House of Representatives District 2 doesn't look good. Kuster (D) vs. Garcia (R)
Senate is a toss up. Shaheen (D) vs. Brown (r)
Governor is a toss up. Hassan (D) vs. Havenstein (R)

All D's are incumbent.
Go Brown!

[NH Shooter]

House of Representatives District 1 is a toss up. Shea-Porter (D) vs. Guinta (R)
House of Representatives District 2 doesn't look good. Kuster (D) vs. Garcia (R)
Senate is a toss up. Shaheen (D) vs. Brown (r)
Governor is a toss up. Hassan (D) vs. Havenstein (R)

All D's are incumbent.

It so depends on which poll you want to believe. I'll be out the door early tomorrow and will vote straight down the line.

[EricP]

Go Brown!

I hate to say it, but voting for Brown will be a hold your nose and get it done situation.


It so depends on which poll you want to believe. I'll be out the door early tomorrow and will vote straight down the line.

Agreed. That was from WMUR this morning with the percentages within the margin of error, except Garcia. All of the other polls are worse.

[hallnh727]

considering NH has already weighed in. I hope that Hickenlooper( Colorado) and Malloy (Connecticut) are both shown the door. I would also love to see Cuomo tossed but from the polling it does not look like that is going to happen

[Odin Bravo One]

Legalized recreational weed.

[Totem Polar]

I-594 in WA.


http://i.imgur.com/mqWPp.jpg

[RoyGBiv]

I hate to say it, but voting for Brown will be a hold your nose and get it done situation.
And the only thing worse than McConnell being Majority Leader is Reid remaining majority Leader...
Hopefully if the Red team can pull it off, they find a way to elect a better man to lead the Senate..... Maybe Ted Cruz? (OK, I'll settle for Mike Lee)

[KeeFus]

Clay Aiken (yes, American Idol dude) is running against Renee Elmers. Looks to be a tight race. Thom Tillis is also in a tight one with Kay Hagan. These are just too close to call. There is a local Sheriffs race that is getting a lot of attention. Going to be interesting to see how that one shakes out and the fallout afterward. When the incumbent Sheriff came in 4 years ago he fired about 23 people his first day. Since he has been caught getting people fired over politics. It's a sad day when you lose your job because you voted.

FWIW, the early voting places around here have been packed everyday. I expect it will be a higher than average turnout in comparison to other years. I also expect gas prices to soar once its all over.

[Chuck Haggard]

The Senate race here is close and bloody. The Dems really pulled a fast one with Orman. Dude is in no way an independent.

[Jeep]

The Senate race here is close and bloody. The Dems really pulled a fast one with Orman. Dude is in no way an independent.

I live in an increasingly blue state in which the big question is whether the Dem hold on our legislature can be whittled down a little. If so, they won't be able to pass any further bills restricting 2nd amendment rights. That in turn raises the really key question--how much cash will the unions put into "walking around money"? If the unions are willing to fork over enough cash, the Dems will get the turnout they need. If not, they won't because a significant part of the Dem base (as well as the people who drag others to the polls) will only participate if they get paid.

Our elections are not exactly a pristine model of Jeffersonian democracy.

[Chuck Haggard]

Normally no one outside of KS cares about KS elections one bit. This time there is a ton of outside money coming in due to Orman maybe being able to oust Pat Roberts, which would be a very big deal in the area of gun politics.

[ssb]

Of note, my incumbent Congressman will almost certainly retain his seat. He has been absent from the House all of this year because he has brain cancer, was operated on in May, and has been recovering since that time. He is reportedly unable to speak, and has made one public appearance since his diagnosis.

His Democratic opponent was asked to withdraw from the race by his party (he refused) after being found out to have lied about serving in Special Forces, the first Gulf War, and other minor life experiences (such as attending college).

He has a Libertarian opponent who has run a joke of a campaign, who I'd estimate will receive <500 votes.

Regardless of his politics and not to knock his medical condition, this is a pretty sad state of affairs.

[ford.304]

I'm grumpy as hell that the local Dems seems to have dropped gun owners. Last election the major Democratic candidates were better ranked by our local firearms group than the major republican candidates. We got castle doctrine passed and major improvements to concealed carry under a Democratic governor and a Republican legislature. Now they've got no one running who ranks higher than a C-.

I lean conservative on some issues, but it's nice having choices, darnit.

[Dagga Boy]

Normally no one outside of KS cares about KS elections one bit. This time there is a ton of outside money coming in due to Orman maybe being able to oust Pat Roberts, which would be a very big deal in the area of gun politics.

If the fake independent works, it will be the new trend in Red States.

As far as gun issues. There are "Progressives" on both sides, and they are the problems. If there were such thing as conservative democrats anymore it would be interesting. True Constitutional Conservatives are a hard thing to find in either party and are demonized by both.

[Suvorov]

My gubernatorial choices were between an old school progressive who goes by "moonbeam" but remarkably gets a C rating from the NRA and a slick RINO businessman who didn't even bother to fill out a NRA questionnaire and who told gun owners if they were the kind of voters who wanted to own assault weapons - "he wasn't there man". Needless to say, I wrote in my dog.

[MDS]

I was happy with the L choices on my card. I thought for a second about voting R for the senate seat, since the wookie is strong with the L candidate there, and what with all the hype around getting a R majority in the Senate....then I remembered how much I hate the R party platform. So I stuck to my guns on that one. In a pleasant surprise, even though there was no L candidate for my House seat, the R candidate has come out publicly for gay marriage, and for keeping the pot question a states' prerogative.

[Corey]

I'm not in Mia Love's district so I voted to re-up Jason Chaffetz as there was no libertarian candidate in that race. State AG I went with the libertarian candidate just on general principal, knowing the R candidate is way ahead in the polls. All the rest of the offices were uncontested races with R incumbents.

[RoyGBiv]

Please. Not Mitch.

Congrats Maryland.

[idahojess]

Congrats Maryland.

Ditto! The Connecticut govs race is pretty fascinating too. Seven votes last time I checked.

I like the Colorado results too.

[LittleLebowski]

Mia Love :D :D

Will Hurd :D :D

My father in law Rocky Chavez :D :D

Maryland :D :D

[Kyle Reese]

I was shocked that a Republican won in Maryland, and that voter fraud would carry the day there. Glad that was not the case.

[MDS]

Jeez, the CO governor's race is still too close to call. Whoever wins, it's a clear message and I hope to see a referendum to repeal some of the stupid gun laws. Or the new legislature might do it - if I'm reading the numbers right, the GOP looks to gain 2 seats net. That leaves a Democratic majority, but only 18-17.

In my county elections, the results are a solid red across the board. Though the L candidate for Sheriff got 27% of the votes! :)

[KeeFus]

Clay Aiken lost to incumbent Renee Elmer's...thank goodness. Otherwise Kay Hagan lost to Thom Tillis. Looks like we went Republican for the most part. Now I hope they start fixing that mess in D.C.

[Joe in PNG]

Charlie the Oompa-loompa lost in Florida- yay!
I'd love it if he shoved off for other waters, but chances are he'll run for something next election. I'm thinking his buddy John Morgan will try to buy him Debbie W-S's congressional seat.

[orionz06]

PA lost a republican governor who just signed a pretty strong preemption bill.

[Palmguy]

Watching MSNBC last night was absolutely schadenfreude-tastic.

http://i1259.photobucket.com/albums/ii551/PalmguyFL/Screenshot_2014-11-05-06-17-39-1_zpsg7li5dju.png

[NickA]

So I guess TX wasn't quite as ready to go purple as some would have had us believe. Huge embarrassment for the Democrats, they poured massive resources into Wendy Davis.
ETA: in local news SA has a new DA, whose campaign was heavily funded by a personal injury trial lawyer. Should be interesting.
[URL]http://www.ksat.com/content/pns/ksat/news/elections/election-day-stories/bexar-county-da-s-race-too-close-to-call.html[URL]

[GardoneVT]

Watching MSNBC last night was absolutely schadenfreude-tastic.

http://i1259.photobucket.com/albums/ii551/PalmguyFL/Screenshot_2014-11-05-06-17-39-1_zpsg7li5dju.png

Will this be the look when the Senate resumes serious investigation into Fast and Furious?

[Dagga Boy]

So I guess TX wasn't quite as ready to go purple as some would have had us believe. Huge embarrassment for the Democrats, they poured massive resources into Wendy Davis.


I got to see an interesting thing with how the Dems "get out the vote". I am at a polling location (wrong one) and a guy walks in in work clothes who is about my age. He is holding some handout from Wendy Davis with the words "YOU CAN VOTE" and instructions on how to get driven to a polling location on the english side. He doesn't speak a word, I mean not a single word of English. He is trying to get help and I am butchering the Spanish language to help him. They get a Spanish speaking poll worker to help him. He was given this "ticket" to vote and presented it to the polling place he initially went. When he got there they told him he needed ID, and based on where he said he lived sent him to the location I was at. He went home and got "an" ID and came to where we were at. The address on that ID was for the other location where he first went and the showed him on the computer that the information on that ID belonged to the other location and sent him back. It struck me as interesting how hard everyone was working to get this guys vote, and how hard a non-English speaking Catholic (assuming based on the gold cross around his neck) was working to vote for Wendy Abortion/Gay Marriage. It seemed pretty obvious that this ID he was using was likely not his as when asked about his address it was point to the card, because when he came without an ID to the other location, and had to give "his" address it was for the location I was at. I can only speculate, but there must be some "motivation" with those tickets he had to vote as he was working awfully hard to vote for Wendy Abortion/Gay Marriage Davis. I can only imagine what the voter fraud is going to look like when at the stroke of a pen we get a bunch of new Democrats.

Yeah, I turned off FOX and watched MSNBC as well............it was fun.

[NickA]

Interesting indeed nyeti. My in-laws are immigrants from Mexico and like you say, they absolutely do not line up with the Dem platform. Unfortunately, the language barrier, lack of political experience, and just plain misinformation make some of them easy to fool. Of course the GOP has also done a piss-poor job of reaching them. Maybe that will change now that we have a Hispanic Bush as land commissioner.

[Palmguy]

Will this be the look when the Senate resumes serious investigation into Fast and Furious?

On that note: http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/04/politics/fast-and-furious-document-dump/index.html

[SeriousStudent]

Mia Love :D :D

Will Hurd :D :D

My father in law Rocky Chavez :D :D

Maryland :D :D

My congrats to your father in law. I know he will keep up the fight in California.

[RoyGBiv]

Bravo! Alabama.

Huge Win for Gun Rights in Alabama Election (http://reason.com/blog/2014/11/05/huge-win-for-gun-rights-in-alabama-elect)


By a vote of 73 percent to 27 percent, voters amended the state constitution to include the following provision:

(a) Every citizen has a fundamental right to bear arms in defense of himself or herself and the state. Any restriction on this right shall be subject to strict scrutiny.

(b) No citizen shall be compelled by any international treaty or international law to take an action that prohibits, limits, or otherwise interferes with his or her fundamental right to keep and bear arms in defense of himself or herself and the state, if such treaty or law, or its adoption, violates the United States Constitution.

[hufnagel]

PA voted for a D govn'r. :facepalm:

Of course they saw that one coming. Corbett ran a horrid campaign. The THUD from it could be heard all the way over here in NJ :D

[45dotACP]

Pat Quinn will be demanding recount...on a 5 percentage points loss.

I go now to bathe in sweet sweet liberal hippy tears.

[MDS]

Aaaaaannnnnd it looks like we get to keep our Huckleberry as Governor in CO. Near as I can tell, given state senate elections that are still too close to call, D's could gain 2 seats, or the R's could gain 4 (R's need to gain 3 to get majority,) or anything in between. In the state House, D's could gain 7, or R's could gain 16 (R's need to gain 5 to get majority.) Getting a majority could make all the difference in repealing the recent gun-law stupidity. But even without a majority, I have hope that grass-roots stuff around the 2A could get a measure on the ballot in 2016. Even a Teddy Roosevelt Republican (aka, "moderate democrat" these days?) is better than a FDR Democrat.

[Drang]

Coming Soon to a State Near You! Initiative 594, AKA "Universal background checks every time you hand a gun to someone else!

594 seems to be passing. What now? (http://thecluemeter.blogspot.com/2014/11/594-seems-to-be-passing-what-now.html)
So, at the time I type this (0150-ish, the morning of Wednesday 11/05) it would appear that Washington State Ballot Initiative 594 is passing. There are still ballots to be counted, it's possible that it might be defeated, but it's not looking good.

So, what now?

Well, based on a variety of things, including conversations I had with people prior to election day and observations about How These Things Work, I expect that by the end of the week an injunction will be filed to prevent this pile of excrement to be implemented, pending court hearings.

Suit will be filed to get it tossed out based on, among other things, unconstitutionally vague language, lacking definitions, unfunded mandates, ad regulatory overreach. It's not like no one in this state knows a lawyer or two who have an established track record when it comes to court challenges of gun rights.

Notwithstanding, the 1%'ers behind this piece of crap will move forward with similar schemes in other states. "I-594, coming soon to a state near you!"

It would not surprise me if the state legislature refuses to implement this; there is precedence for them to ignore the results of initiatives.

The left, led by their 1%'er Sugar Daddies will be crowing about the defeat of the NRA. Never mind that the NRA has elections in 50 states plus territories to deal with, and resources that are far from infinite. Any victory for gun control is a defeat for the NRA.

And, of course, all the whiners will come out of the woodwork blaming the NRA for this. Because the only people who are more certain of the NRA's power to influence the vote than the left-wing lunatic fringe is a bunch of gun nuts who are looking for a scapegoat. I swear sometimes if "Threepers" put half the energy into getting the vote out, or trying to influence their congresscritters that they do into masturbating to their rebellion fantasies while chanting "Shall Not Be Infringed!", we'd be debating whether sales taxes on guns and ammo are unconstitutional.

Yes, I'm disappointed that the NRA was late to the party. I certainly don't believe that NRA's strategies are bound to be 100% effective. And I haven't heard anything from Gun Owners of America (GOA) on this, or the National Association for Gun rights, and little from Jews for the Preservation of Firearms Ownership. (Who, by the way, were pretty much silent when the left attacked NRA Rep Brian Judy for pointing out how Weimar and Nazi gun control facilitated the Holocaust.)

I also know that Adina Hicks and Keely Hopkins, NRA WA Grassroots coordinators, were working themselves to death travelling and organizing. Plus, there have been other issues in the past where no one knew the NRA was doing anything until after the dust settled and it became obvious that "strategery" had been in play.

So, yeah, not happy here. But, being an INTJ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INTJ), I am fully capable of the apparently contradictory cynical optimism (or optimistic cynicism, if you prefer) that is characteristic of that "type", and fully believe that we will win this.

Eventually.

But we must stay the course, not get discouraged, and not engage in internal bickering about who did (or didn't) do what.

[joshs]

Coming Soon to a State Near You! Initiative 594, AKA "Universal background checks every time you hand a gun to someone else!

You might be surprised how many states don't have a popular initiative process.

[Totem Polar]

^^^Plus, the 13 remaining that do will need 5 famous, local billionaire families to side with Bloomberg in providing more than half the $10 mil funding out of pocket to buy the election with massive advert propaganda. The main counter to Bloomberg (one fringe rich statist guy dumping huge dough from outside the state to influence local politics) sort of vaporizes when the most visible uber tycoons from within hop on the bandwagon. I hate to say it, but that shit was well-played.

[TR675]

Aaaaaannnnnd it looks like we get to keep our Huckleberry as Governor in CO.

Interesting to see that if the wookie-suiters had voted (R) the results would have been different. Obviously it's not that simple, but interesting.

[ssb]

The sheer volume of vitriol that's crossed my Facebook feed since about 9:30 last night...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owzhYNcd4OM

[Joe in PNG]

That is good, but what is best in life? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PQ6335puOc)

[MDS]

Interesting to see that if the wookie-suiters had voted (R) the results would have been different. Obviously it's not that simple, but interesting.

In my opinion, the results wouldn't have been that different. And certainly no different, in terms of how much liberty I enjoy as a citizen of this fine state. Frankly I'm not sad that Hickenlooper won, because Beauprez sounds like (http://www.ontheissues.org/house/Bob_Beauprez.htm) just the kind of petty moralistic tyrant that makes R the lesser evil. Hickenlooper may want to melt my guns and give my money to the poor, but Beauprez wants a surveillance state to make sure my personal behavior is in line with his personal beliefs. But that's a different thread.

On your topic of interesting speculation, here's one of many analyses that show how rarely a third party influences the outcome of an election: http://time.com/libertarian-spoiler-candidates/ (I've yet to see an actual numerical analysis that shows much impact in the outcome of many national elections.) This one lets you play with the numbers and concoct whichever woulda/coulda/shoulda scenario you'd like to see!

[45dotACP]

Turns out Quinn won't be demanding recount after all.

My amazement that Bruce Rauner and Bob Dold both unseated firmly entrenched Democrat encumbants is likely not going to melt any time soon. Yes, Dick Durbin beat the Dairy Farmer...but I comfort myself with two words.

Senate Majority.

That's right bitchezzz!

[Suvorov]

I hate to say it, but that shit was well-played.

And it didn't hurt that a troubled teen decided to get the worlds attention before offing himself.

[Seven_Sicks_Two]

My gubernatorial choices were between an old school progressive who goes by "moonbeam" but remarkably gets a C rating from the NRA and a slick RINO businessman who didn't even bother to fill out a NRA questionnaire and who told gun owners if they were the kind of voters who wanted to own assault weapons - "he wasn't their man". Needless to say, I wrote in my dog.

Interestingly, my ballot didn't even give me the option for a write-in. Talk about choosing between the lesser of two evils.

As a pro-gun, freedom-minded voter, living in California is disheartening to say the least. Our Senators, Boxer (D) and Feinstein (D) were first elected when I was 8 years old, Davis (D), my Congresswoman has been in office since 2002. To top things off, the California electorate will pretty much always vote for a tax increase on themselves so long as it is wrapped in a pipe dream ballot initiative.

As an idealistic young kid, I voted in every election I could, majored in Poli Sci in college and worked my first (and only) campaign in 2008... where virtually all of our candidates were soundly defeated. So it's not like I haven't tried to do my bit to change things. But, I'm really starting to wonder why I even bother going to the polls in November.

[Drang]

You might be surprised how many states don't have a popular initiative process.

26 states plus DeeCee have some form of popular ballot initiative process. I suppose that you might be surprised to learn that I looked that up several weeks ago.
How deep are the pockets of the 1%? What is the going rate for a congresscritter or two in your state?

Oh, and they're already starting the process in Nevada.

[Drang]

Local media actually admits that I594 is gun control, not just a "common sense gun safety measure": Editorial: Voters stand ground on gun control in passing I-594 over I-591 | Editorials | The Seattle Times (http://seattletimes.com/html/editorials/2024953402_i594electioneditguncontrol05xml.html?el q=%7E%7Eeloqua..type--emailfield..syntax--recipientid%7E%7E&elqCampaignId=%7E%7Eeloqua..type--campaign..campaignid--0..fieldname--id%7E%7E)
Plus: I-594 supporters will make push in Olympia for stronger gun laws | Local News | The Seattle Times (http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2024963246_backgroundcheckfoloxml.html)

“Yesterday’s victory is just the beginning,” said Sandy Brown, president of the board for the Washington-based Center for Gun Responsibility. “It’s the beginning of a permanent movement to reduce the plague of gun violence in Washington state.”
The only thing they have announced so far is a bill to make it a crime to leave a gun where a minor can access it , which ignores the fact that this is already covered under the states "reckless endangerment" law.
RUMINT says we can expect to see:
*"Assault weapon ban
*"High capacity" assault magazine clip ban
Plus I anticipate
*Safe storage laws. Goes hand in hand with the legislation announced above. Wouldn't be surprised if it included inspections.
*Open carry ban
*Training qualification requirement for carry permit
*Medical/mental health checks for carry permits
*Ending of state preemption, leading to
*Restrictions on where you can carry/easing of "posting" requirement
*"Green" ammo requirements
*Ranges and clubs being shut down -- already an issue in some areas.
*Recent authorizations of SBRs and suppressors going away.

[RoyGBiv]

So... is the "War on Women" thing played out yet? Has the "Race Card" been beaten to death?

Condi Rice comments at ~1:45 mark here (http://video.foxnews.com/v/3878300052001/condoleezza-rices-take-on-americas-political-landscape/#sp=show-clips)

[joshs]

26 states plus DeeCee have some form of popular ballot initiative process. I suppose that you might be surprised to learn that I looked that up several weeks ago.

I suppose I should have been more accurate by saying, "you might be surprised how many states that are potential targets for Everytown lack a popular initiative process." Nevada, Maine and several other states are vulnerable, but I think it's telling that Everytown is already considering an initiative in Arizona, which I would consider one of the states least like to approve a universal checks initiative. As far as I know, they haven't turned in their signatures yet in Nevada and they're due next week.

[ssb]

So... is the "War on Women" thing played out yet? Has the "Race Card" been beaten to death?

Condi Rice comments at ~1:45 mark here (http://video.foxnews.com/v/3878300052001/condoleezza-rices-take-on-americas-political-landscape/#sp=show-clips)

To people who espouse such things, Mrs. Rice can be dismissed as a traitor to her race or her gender.

Example I saw yesterday, in reference to a TN Amendment which overturned a state supreme court decision finding that women had a right under the TN constitution to have an abortion:


I am angry! First! Amendment 1 passed! I genuinely did not think such a horrific amendment would pass! This is a legit violation to women. It’s a slap in the face! Any woman who voted Yes on 1 is a sellout! You personally don’t give a damn about yourself and any woman in this state.

[RoyGBiv]

To people who espouse such things, Mrs. Rice can be dismissed as a traitor to her race or her gender.
Yes, but, have those lies lost sway?

The final 2 weeks of this election cycle saw much gender beatings and race baiting, to no avail.

[CMG]

26 states plus DeeCee have some form of popular ballot initiative process. I suppose that you might be surprised to learn that I looked that up several weeks ago.
How deep are the pockets of the 1%? What is the going rate for a congresscritter or two in your state?

Oh, and they're already starting the process in Nevada.

In Nevada, any ballot initiative has to be approved twice before it becomes law. So any ballot initiative takes 2 election cycles before it can take effect.

[ssb]

Yes, but, have those lies lost sway?

The final 2 weeks of this election cycle saw much gender beatings and race baiting, to no avail.

The counter-argument is that many of the types of people who are swayed by such things don't tend to vote in mid-terms.

To test your theory, I'd take a look at the turnouts in North Carolina, Colorado, and Iowa. I'd be especially interested to see how well the war on women meme worked on Mrs. Ernst, specifically what percentage of women voters swung her way. Mark Udall apparently ran hard with that same thing (to the point that he was called "Mark Uterus"), so the turnout figures there might also tell a story. The Dems in North Carolina apparently invoked Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown to imply that if a Republican won, there'd be a lot more dead young black men in the streets. African Americans as a voting group tend to break hard for the Democrats, but their turnout as compared to a Presidential year may tell a story there regarding the effectiveness of the tactic.