Thugs, Adaptation,& Concealed Carry.

[GardoneVT]

In the opinion of the folks in the know here, do you forsee the kittenheads adapting to their intended victims having CCW pistols? Right now many thugs appear to get caught with POS pocket guns , which are sufficient when one's intended target isn't armed. Thus, will the next generation of criminals who come up in a 'shall issue' world start bringing AKs and body armor on carjackings and stickups to 'keep an advantage' versus shotguns and pistols, or is that dynamic unlikely in the years to come?

The inspiration for the topic came from a recent review of Argentina's economic woes, and how street criminals down there routinely used long guns , ambush tactics AND numbers when people started reacting to increasing crime with more security measures.

[1slow]

I would expect thugs to try to gear up. The more murderous ones may just shoot first and rob the bodies.
Awareness will become even more important.

[Chuck Haggard]

Argentina has serious issues, including that some of the bad guys are on the .gov payroll or otherwise supported by them.

[ssb]

I would think that for the average street robber, the advantages of handguns (namely portability and concealability) would continue to outweigh those afforded by long guns. Growing up, I regularly hung out with shitheads (I freely admit that I didn't make the best life choices). Concealability was universally the determining factor in what guns they chose to arm themselves with. For example, I knew one guy who'd carry one of those fold-up .22MAG derringers in his change pocket. For his purposes he felt it was more than sufficient. In my experience, none of these people were "gun people." I think the only time I ever saw a holster was when I watched a former Sheriff's deputy turned landlord sell a revolver to a 19 year-old in somebody's laundry room (shoulder holster). These people didn't labor over ammunition choices, nor did they particularly care about gun selection (availability and price being the deciding factors). For reference, the area we were in had/has (according to Tom Givens' stats) one of the highest percentages of HCP holders in the state.

In that same area, last year there was a group of young men robbing people at gunpoint in a local park. That generated a heavy police response which culminated in a foot pursuit, one which ended with what was apparently a most excellent tackle by a police officer on my parents' front lawn. My father, who was watching all of this happen, recalled that they pulled a small automatic out of his jacket pocket. A series of driveway robberies, one of which ended in the shooting of an old neighbor of mine (he survived, thankfully), also involved handguns. Several years ago, a family friend's computer store was also robbed -- handguns, once again. Ditto for a drycleaner later that same year. Again, this is in a part of the country where guns are very common and, further, an area where CCW is also common (something like 10% of the city's population had a CCW permit, last I looked -- one of the highest rates in the state). I actually can't recall a crime in which long guns were involved, and I feel like that would stick out because this is an area with fairly low crime to begin with (though it's a very short hop from Memphis and there are justifiable concerns about some of the unpleasantness spilling outwards).

I could see a vest being worn, and I'm sure there's plenty of anecdotal evidence of LEOs encountering criminals wearing armor. Do I see a bunch of 16 year-old Memphians bringing along an AK or two to their next robbery? Unless they've got a specific target in mind (such as a dealer), somehow I doubt that. Different/"better" tactics (such as shooting the victim first) I could also see.

[Hambo]

For BGs to up their game, CCW holders would first have to up theirs enough to be a threat. People on this forum are not the norm in CCW. Most are like a friend of mine who recently said he wants to upgrade from his DB9. I was hoping he'd at least go to something the size of a PPS and CARRY IT instead of leaving it in his truck 90% of the time. His response was that on body carry would be too much of a paradigm shift for him and that he wants a higher dollar/quality micro 9 for the rare occasions he stuffs it in a pocket.

[HCM]

The popularity of Body Armor for thugs has waxed and waned over the years. It was quite popular in the 90's and became a fashion necessity for gangsters / gangster rappers. In response, many states and the federal government passed laws restricting felons from owning / possessing / purchasing body armor so it is less common now but you will still see serious offenders ( robbery crews/ mid level dope dealers etc ). Its also pretty popular with the Mexican cartels. The federal government passed its version (18 USC 931) back in 2002.

[HCM]

For BGs to up their game, CCW holders would first have to up theirs enough to be a threat. People on this forum are not the norm in CCW. Most are like a friend of mine who recently said he wants to upgrade from his DB9. I was hoping he'd at least go to something the size of a PPS and CARRY IT instead of leaving it in his truck 90% of the time. His response was that on body carry would be too much of a paradigm shift for him and that he wants a higher dollar/quality micro 9 for the rare occasions he stuffs it in a pocket.

This ^^^^^^

IME most CHL holders here in Texas carry pocket guns and/of use their CCW as a car gun.

[NETim]

I strongly suspect that many of the more ardent CCW'ers are much like me, that is, we don't do stupid things with stupid people. We live a quiet, low key life. This naturally lowers our odds for encountering "bad guys" significantly IMHO. Being sound asleep most nights by 10 keeps me out of a lot of trouble. :)

So, if what I believe is true, is true, bad guys will continue to muscle much easier marks as the harder targets simply aren't as available.

[Beat Trash]

The "thugs" in my city are not carrying POS pocket guns any more. That ended about 10 years ago. In the "Thug World", 9mm's are the norm in my city. Long guns used to be rare. When one was recovered, everyone talked about it in court the next day. Now, not so much... The long guns, AK's SKS's and AR's are usually reserved by the Thugs for when they are really serious.

Body armor was also a rare thing a few years ago. Now, it's showing up more and more. Still not a common thing, but it's being seen more often.

The Thug world is definitely adapting. When it comes to street robberies, what I am seeing in my city is a change in tactics more so than a change in equipment. The "lone gunman" is being replaced by a group, usually three. Instead of being aligned shoulder to shoulder like an El Presidente drill, they split and approach from three different angles. Picture three armed men approaching from 2, 10, and 6 o'clock, all armed and all approaching at the same time.

There have been several topics lately about what constitutes an appropriate CCW gun to protect yourself. One discusses the difference between a "carry gun" and a "combat gun". I offer that if the gun is being carried for defense, then there is no difference between the two.

No CCW gun is appropriate if you leave your situational awareness at home that day. You don't have to go through life paranoid of being attacked. But you should excersize some level of awareness of your surroundings as you go about your life.

[Chuck Haggard]

We see a lot of armor locally, but it is almost always in a closet and found during a raid.

I can recall three cases in the past 20 or so years where we caught bad guys wearing vests, one was some dudes in a car, the guy in the back seat wearing a vest and he had an Uzi wrapped up in a towel, they were headed to go do a drive-by when our guys stopped them. Another where the bad guys was trying a home invasion wearing a stolen level IIIa LE entry vest and packing a pistol grip Mossberg (lady looked out the side window and saw bad guy posted up on her front door knocking, so she didn't answer it), and lastly a higher up the food chain drug dealer who was car stopped for warrants and was wearing one due to knowing other drug dealer dude was currently after him.

That sort of pattern is pretty common in my observation and talking to coppers in other areas of the US.

[Chuck Haggard]

The "thugs" in my city are not carrying POS pocket guns any more. That ended about 10 years ago. In the "Thug World", 9mm's are the norm in my city. Long guns used to be rare. When one was recovered, everyone talked about it in court the next day. Now, not so much... The long guns, AK's SKS's and AR's are usually reserved by the Thugs for when they are really serious.

Body armor was also a rare thing a few years ago. Now, it's showing up more and more. Still not a common thing, but it's being seen more often.

The Thug world is definitely adapting. When it comes to street robberies, what I am seeing in my city is a change in tactics more so than a change in equipment. The "lone gunman" is being replaced by a group, usually three. Instead of being aligned shoulder to shoulder like an El Presidente drill, they split and approach from three different angles. Picture three armed men approaching from 2, 10, and 6 o'clock, all armed and all approaching at the same time.

There have been several topics lately about what constitutes an appropriate CCW gun to protect yourself. One discusses the difference between a "carry gun" and a "combat gun". I offer that if the gun is being carried for defense, then there is no difference between the two.

No CCW gun is appropriate if you leave your situational awareness at home that day. You don't have to go through life paranoid of being attacked. But you should excersize some level of awareness of your surroundings as you go about your life.



I like to point out that this upgrade in pistols is completely due to the supply of cheap, crappy "SNS" guns drying up due to being banned and no longer made, so bad guys have upgraded to what they can get. Many thanks gun control crowd, you folks are awesome.

[Artemas]

Some of it might just be Darwinism.

Here is a 2012 article from Greg Ellifritz, he talks about some of the guns his department has seized and their condition among other things.

http://www.activeresponsetraining.net/criminals-and-the-guns-they-carry

Nine of the 85 weapons were completely broken and unable to function. 17 more of the guns had limited functionality because of frequent (at least 1 in the first 3 rounds I fired) malfunctions, lack of magazines (5 guns), and other problems like incorrect magazines, and internal parts breakage that lead to inconsistent firing ability.

The whole thing is an interesting read, but not something to bet you life on.

This is close to what Chuck has said


The guns were not all cheaply made either. The three most commonly represented handgun manufacturers in this study (Ruger, Smith and Wesson, and Glock) are generally known to make quality, reliable handguns. Only about 23% of the guns we took from criminals could be considered “Saturday Night Specials”.

[41magfan]

If our law and order culture were to deteriorate to some great extent, you would obviously see more displays of anarchy like the stuff we've seen on a limited basis with the rioting and looting incidents we’ve experienced here in the U.S.

Collectively, the average crook usually does a fairly decent job of picking the right victim, i.e. someone who appears to be unaware and unlikely to resist. So regardless of how many gun-toters there may be out there, there are still plenty of “prey” examples for them to choose from.

The train comes off the tracks for most crooks in two general circumstances;

1. When they encounter a victim that “appears” to be unaware and unlikely to resist but is in fact armed. That description actually fits the majority of CCW holders walking around in public. But even though they’re armed - and not really prepared - they usually persevere because most crooks don’t have a workable Plan-B when their intended victim(s) effectively resist.

2. The other general circumstance is when they interject themselves in scenarios that involve too many potential victims for them to plan for or control. The most common example would be a retail robbery with multiple patrons present. This is where the dynamic of concealed carry by average citizens is having the greatest impact on crime ….. not so much as prevention, but as an active interruption to the criminal event.

The wild card obviously is a crook that’s stoned out of his mind when he commits his crimes. These folks don’t do a very good job of picking victims or places to victimize so there’s nothing passive that can be done to deter these knuckleheads.

[Rosco Benson]

The thugs may indeed adapt to more folks carrying, but it'll take time and will be the result of more of them being shot or put to flight. Right now, there just isn't enough of that happening on a regular basis to shift their paradigm (IMO). Still, one ought to train and equip as if he were going to be fighting well trained, well equipped, and motivated attackers.

As far as criminal adaptation goes, as people carry less cash and rely on their debit cards more, there are more instances of victims being forced to go to an ATM and withdraw cash for the robber. This took quite a while and a real shift in how people purchase things to lead to this.

Rosco

[GK17]

Thank you, OP, for starting a great thread and to all the rest of you for well considered and thought provoking responses. Gonna' follow this with focused interest. Boiled down concentrate for me thus far is that survival of an attack of a prepared CC individual by street thugs remains high percentage but going up against 1 man or a team of bad guys geared up to hit a "hard target" and surviving, much less prevailing, ain't gonna' happen. Think I'll stay out of banks, Rolex and jewelry stores whenever possible.

[Mr_White]

Boiled down concentrate for me thus far is that survival of an attack of a prepared CC individual by street thugs remains high percentage but going up against 1 man or a team of bad guys geared up to hit a "hard target" and surviving, much less prevailing, ain't gonna' happen.

I don't mean to downplay that some situations may be very difficult and very dire. But don't count yourself out. 'Who Dares, Wins' is a motto for a reason.

[41magfan]

The advantage to being armed and prepared is that you have MORE options than the guy who isn't. In other words, just because you can doesn't mean you should.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

As Pasteur said:

Chance only favours the mind which is prepared

[GK17]

Truth abounds in all 3 of the above responses. Always trying to remain realistic while preparing for worst case scenarios is vital but challenging. IMO the odds of facing one or more assailants with both body armor and heavy firepower are long but the chance of prevailing against one is better for a very well trained and equipped concealed carrier and the numbers get exponentially worse as the team size grows. At this time I'm neither well trained or well equipped but plan on making efforts to improve on that. All of you are my mentors with most every post you make.

[Chuck Haggard]

I recall a friend from SA telling m,e about an off-duty guy that was caught up in a bank robbery involving seven bad guys with AKs, when they started shaking down the customers in addition to robbing the bank he knew he was hosed the second they found his ID, so he pulled his Star PD and declared war. He won that fight.

SGT Alvin York also won his fight under similar odds poor odds.

Just sayin.

[BillP]

In one house in my jurisdiction, I found a series of bags. Each bag contained a handgun, 2-3 spare mags of JHP, a mask, hoodie, and gloves. We found out they were "rental" packages for robberies and shootings. For an upcharge: 1 of 4 homemade suppressors available. For a more significant fee, a shotgun with slugs or a 10" M4 with six mags of green tip SS109 were available. You could also "rent" 3A conceal able armor, a plate carrier with level 4 standalone plates, or an IBA with soft armor and SAPI plates.

This was available in a dope house for the dealer to rent to his friends. We tied the guns to six or seven shootings in the area.

The dealer, at his federal proffer, explained that the armor and long guns were for hitting places where they expected people to be armed "like banks, gun stores, or stash houses".

[lightning fast]

A lot of criminal activity is driven by probability of being caught, not the consequence of it. As long as their cheap, primal intimidation methods work frequently... I don't foresee them switching gears.

[BN]

I recall a friend from SA telling m,e about an off-duty guy that was caught up in a bank robbery involving seven bad guys with AKs, when they started shaking down the customers in addition to robbing the bank he knew he was hosed the second they found his ID, so he pulled his Star PD and declared war. He won that fight.

SGT Alvin York also won his fight under similar odds poor odds.

Just sayin.

Wow. 6 plus one in a Star PD and 7 bad guys. :) Impressive.

[NETim]

In one house in my jurisdiction, I found a series of bags. Each bag contained a handgun, 2-3 spare mags of JHP, a mask, hoodie, and gloves. We found out they were "rental" packages for robberies and shootings. For an upcharge: 1 of 4 homemade suppressors available. For a more significant fee, a shotgun with slugs or a 10" M4 with six mags of green tip SS109 were available. You could also "rent" 3A conceal able armor, a plate carrier with level 4 standalone plates, or an IBA with soft armor and SAPI plates.

This was available in a dope house for the dealer to rent to his friends. We tied the guns to six or seven shootings in the area.

The dealer, at his federal proffer, explained that the armor and long guns were for hitting places where they expected people to be armed "like banks, gun stores, or stash houses".

Extended background checks will stop that stuff cold.

[Malamute]

I recall a friend from SA telling m,e about an off-duty guy that was caught up in a bank robbery involving seven bad guys with AKs, when they started shaking down the customers in addition to robbing the bank he knew he was hosed the second they found his ID, so he pulled his Star PD and declared war. He won that fight.

SGT Alvin York also won his fight under similar odds poor odds.

Just sayin.

^ ^ ^ These are the things that stick in my mind. I'm perplexed when people basically give up beforehand by saying things like "if they have AK's and you just have a pistol you're hosed...." etc. They've made up their mind what their limitations are and defeated themselves ahead of time.

This was interesting. 4 thugs attack a guy in his garage, one had an AR, the rest pistols I believe. He retreated into the house and grabbed a pistol and started shooting. The video shows the results.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_rz2wBYin4&spfreload=10

[Chuck Haggard]

To give up beforehand is definitely a failure in mindset.

It ain't over till it's over.

This guy started his gunfight by getting his M4 shot in half and taking 27 AK and AR rounds. He pulled his 9mm, got off the floor and killed all four bad guys.
http://video.foxnews.com/v/3797608860001/navy-seal-shot-27-times-by-al-qaeda-tells-his-survival-story/#sp=show-clips

[Totem Polar]

Think I'll stay out of banks, Rolex and jewelry stores whenever possible.
Sort of OT, but, this last weekend I went to a downtown hotel suite in a major NW city for a private showing of German watches (I'm a wee bit of a Sinn whore). I met two watch forum buddies of mine there; one a retired homicide detective, and the other still employed in the same office (I hasten to add that I'm just a guy, but I do talk guns with these dudes as much as watches--they're 'those' kind of cops). The protocol called for us to meet in the lobby at 10 minutes to a specific time, at which point the dealer would meet us and take us to the suite; there was no advertising whatsoever. So we all did exactly that.
After maybe 30 minutes of ooing and ahhing and trying on watches with commas in the sticker, this knock came at the door. Sales guy one is looking at sales guy two, like, WTF?

I subtly shifted more to one side of the room, one buddy shifted the opposite way 10 feet or so, and the third guy casually moved towards a column with a tree planter in front of it in the middle. Turns out it was just some client from an earlier showing coming back for something, but I can say that it would have probably sucked to be a guy trying to rob the suite. Interestingly, at no point the entire time were more than two of the three of us ever together for very long; the third guy intuitively moved to another table if two of us became engaged in conversation. Didn't even really notice it happening each time.

Moral of the story: go to the bank, the Rolex store, the jewelers, the coin dealer, the vintage whatever show, and enjoy life. Just take a friend or two who can shoot at least as well as you can. :D


In one house in my jurisdiction, I found a series of bags. Each bag contained a handgun, 2-3 spare mags of JHP, a mask, hoodie, and gloves. We found out they were "rental" packages for robberies and shootings. For an upcharge: 1 of 4 homemade suppressors available. For a more significant fee, a shotgun with slugs or a 10" M4 with six mags of green tip SS109 were available. You could also "rent" 3A conceal able armor, a plate carrier with level 4 standalone plates, or an IBA with soft armor and SAPI plates.

This was available in a dope house for the dealer to rent to his friends. We tied the guns to six or seven shootings in the area.

May I ask you (and other LEOs who would know) what the approximate going rate for a gamby rental with 3 mags of JHP is in the hood? Any ideas? I'm guessing it's probably less than what a G17 rental with lane time and a box of ammo goes for at my local range...

[Hambo]

The way I heard the story it was only five guys, but either way he was having a really bad day out. That's something to keep in mind in you're in a nightmare scenario. If they find you're armed, a cop, or think you are dangerous, you're probably the first to go anyway. So being that you're going to die for sure, you get to choose if you want to die face down on the floor or fighting back.

[GK17]

Would not be here if a "Quitter"....( ;>}#

Strong believer in "Try or Die"!

"Survival of the Fittest" is for critters. "Survival of the Strongest Willed" comes in to play with the ability of envisioning a future.

[1slow]

" The will to win is nothing beside the will to train to win." This was attributed to coach Bear Bryant.
In a nightmare criminal assault scenario, if you are going to go, pave the road with all the evil guys you can. This may get you through alive and if not you will have reduced the evil in the world.

[GK17]

" The will to win is nothing beside the will to train to win." This was attributed to coach Bear Bryant.
In a nightmare criminal assault scenario, if you are going to go, pave the road with all the evil guys you can. This may get you through alive and if not you will have reduced the evil in the world.

+1 to that!

Watched the latest "Recover Frozen Siberian Mammoths" documentary the other night. 2 big bearded scientists, one in his 50's with eyeglasses, the other about 30 with major tatoos and radical ear piercings. Every time a problem cropped up the older guy pitched in and dealt with it while his young associate sat back and whined with his thumb up his butt. Presumably, due to youth the younger guy was "fitter" but I know which one I'd rather be in a jam with.

[KeeFus]

To give up beforehand is definitely a failure in mindset.

It ain't over till it's over.

This guy started his gunfight by getting his M4 shot in half and taking 27 AK and AR rounds. He pulled his 9mm, got off the floor and killed all four bad guys.
http://video.foxnews.com/v/3797608860001/navy-seal-shot-27-times-by-al-qaeda-tells-his-survival-story/#sp=show-clips

^^^This! Mindset! It's what we try to tell our guys every chance we get. A "warrior" mindset is hard to develop in someone who just doesn't want to though. It takes someone who is committed; someone that knows the stakes and is willing to throw themselves into the fight no matter the outcome.

I've sat back and thought about mindset and where I got mine from. I can say that the US Army found it for me and then it was further defined by years of scuffles and fights with bad guys and topped off by Officer Survival classes. In all the arrests/fights/scuffles I have had over the last 20 years I can say without reservation that the will to win is what prevails. Anything less and you will likely lose. Finish...and finish hard!

[BillP]

Sort of OT, but, this last weekend I went to a downtown hotel suite in a major NW city for a private showing of German watches (I'm a wee bit of a Sinn whore). I met two watch forum buddies of mine there; one a retired homicide detective, and the other still employed in the same office (I hasten to add that I'm just a guy, but I do talk guns with these dudes as much as watches--they're 'those' kind of cops). The protocol called for us to meet in the lobby at 10 minutes to a specific time, at which point the dealer would meet us and take us to the suite; there was no advertising whatsoever. So we all did exactly that.
After maybe 30 minutes of ooing and ahhing and trying on watches with commas in the sticker, this knock came at the door. Sales guy one is looking at sales guy two, like, WTF?

I subtly shifted more to one side of the room, one buddy shifted the opposite way 10 feet or so, and the third guy casually moved towards a column with a tree planter in front of it in the middle. Turns out it was just some client from an earlier showing coming back for something, but I can say that it would have probably sucked to be a guy trying to rob the suite. Interestingly, at no point the entire time were more than two of the three of us ever together for very long; the third guy intuitively moved to another table if two of us became engaged in conversation. Didn't even really notice it happening each time.

Moral of the story: go to the bank, the Rolex store, the jewelers, the coin dealer, the vintage whatever show, and enjoy life. Just take a friend or two who can shoot at least as well as you can. :D



May I ask you (and other LEOs who would know) what the approximate going rate for a gamby rental with 3 mags of JHP is in the hood? Any ideas? I'm guessing it's probably less than what a G17 rental with lane time and a box of ammo goes for at my local range...
Going rate was $200 if he wasn't right with you, $50 if you were boys. Upcharges applied to long guns, silencers, and armor. If you shot someone, you bought it and keep it. The extra funds were due immediately. I think it was $300 for a handgun and $500-600 for a long gun.

[Totem Polar]

Going rate was $200 if he wasn't right with you, $50 if you were boys. Upcharges applied to long guns, silencers, and armor. If you shot someone, you bought it and keep it. The extra funds were due immediately. I think it was $300 for a handgun and $500-600 for a long gun.

That is absolutely fascinating. Thanks for the response.

[Chuck Haggard]

We also have folks around here that rent guns and cars for stuff, but nothing quite as sophisticated as that.

I am convinced we have a combat medic working our area as well, we keep having dudes get clipped and they ain't showing up at the hospital, or in the river, so.........

[MDS]

Extended background checks will stop that stuff cold.
Oh, my! Thank you. It's good to start the day with a long, hearty belly laugh.

Unfortunately, I have some voting research to do so I'm likely to do a little crying later. The universe craves balance, I guess.

I think criminal tactics evolve to match the environment and the needs which drive the crime. When getting away with crime is hard, but living a life legitimate is (perceived to be) even harder, that's when, in my lay opinion, thugs will work harder to get good gear and training.

The answer, in my opinion, is in my sig: wrath. Ferguson is all up in arms because of perceived heavy-handedness by the police. Great. But if a community could call out a response like that against routine, everyday thuggery, that community would hardly need any policing, let alone of a kind that might be perceived as heavy-handed.

[41magfan]

I can recall a couple of incidents where one of our thugs would show up at the ER for TX and x-rays would reveal he was carrying around bullets from unreported incidents.

After responding to a disturbance call one night in a rough section of town, one of our guys recovered a 6" section of severed penis that nobody ever sought TX for either.

[Byron]

Hopefully I'm not veering too far off topic...


I am convinced we have a combat medic working our area as well, we keep having dudes get clipped and they ain't showing up at the hospital, or in the river, so.........
Related to that, I am curious about something...

In action movies, when a shady individual needs to get patched up, the cliche solution is to bribe a vet for medical care. Makes sense from a logistical standpoint, but I can't imagine it's common in the real world. Or am I being naive?

Have you ever seen evidence of this in your career? Ever seen charges against a vet for giving some thug back-room surgery?

[MDS]

Have you ever seen evidence of this in your career? Ever seen charges against a vet for giving some thug back-room surgery?

Not thug related, but I do know that working class folks in my neighborhood growing up would routinely get stitched up, from construction accidents or whatever, by Cuban veterinarians who couldn't practice in the US. Practicing vets had too much to lose. For an unemployed combat medic veteran, or a refugee immigrant, who has some skills but can't really practice legitimately, I can easily imagine them not asking questions when a chance at $500 lands in their lap...

[GK17]

Seems like I may have thrown in a cross current that took things off course from the OP's original destination. Still, fascinating and educational commentary. It appears that dirtbags and sociopaths are "Regular Folks" in that they range from complete idiots to quite intelligent. Also evident that the Arms & Tactics Race is not exclusively Military in nature.

[Chuck Haggard]

Hopefully I'm not veering too far off topic...


Related to that, I am curious about something...

In action movies, when a shady individual needs to get patched up, the cliche solution is to bribe a vet for medical care. Makes sense from a logistical standpoint, but I can't imagine it's common in the real world. Or am I being naive?

Have you ever seen evidence of this in your career? Ever seen charges against a vet for giving some thug back-room surgery?

I have never seen it locally in this part of the state, or even heard of it, but then all of our vets are working OT on most days due to there being both pets and LOTS or horses and cattle around here.

I have no doubt it happens though.

[Byron]

Not thug related, but I do know that working class folks in my neighborhood growing up would routinely get stitched up, from construction accidents or whatever, by Cuban veterinarians who couldn't practice in the US. Practicing vets had too much to lose.

I have never seen it locally in this part of the state, or even heard of it...
I have no doubt it happens though.

Thanks for the input, gents

[Terence]

I have never seen it locally in this part of the state, or even heard of it, but then all of our vets are working OT on most days due to there being both pets and LOTS or horses and cattle around here.

I have no doubt it happens though.

Apologies for citing a TV show, but it may be relevant to the discussion.

The show Gangland has episodes on various gangs Crips, Bloods, MS-13 etc. One of the episodes was on military veterans in street gangs. During the episode, they showed surveillance video of gang members using recognizable CQB tactics during a gunfight.

If they are recruiting guys with combat experience, or training, they may be recruiting medics as well.

Here is a link to the FBI report on gangs:

http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/2011-national-gang-threat-assessment/2011-national-gang-threat-assessment#GangsandtheMilitary (Link is SFW)

[GK17]

Certainly a possibility and likely a reality.

[TGS]

Pre-hospital medicine is designed to keep you alive until you reach definitive care.

A medic is pre-hospital care. A medic is not definitive care.

Without getting too wordy, you're relying on your faith in god to get you through your GSW, stabbing, or blunt trauma to vital organs if you're substituting a medic for definitive care. Whether they are recruiting them is one thing...but the notion a former military medic is providing definitive care post-shootout is pretty out of touch with reality and what a medic can/cannot do.....otherwise we'd have medics running the trauma units overseas, which we dont. We have trauma surgeons.

The same holds true for all the zombie apocolypse stuff where people think EMTs and paramedics will be able to provide health services post apocalypse. Nonsense.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

In the Walking Dead, their medical care was handled by a vet (not Cuban) - Herschel. Killed by the Governor. Kleck mentioned, IIRC, when asked why his DGU numbers were not reflected in hospital visits, that many wounds were trivial or straight through muscle shots that could be handled by simple street procedures. If that is true or not, it is not my knowledge domain.

[Terence]

Without getting too wordy, you're relying on your faith in god to get you through your GSW, stabbing, or blunt trauma to vital organs if you're substituting a medic for definitive care. Whether they are recruiting them is one thing...but the notion a former military medic is providing definitive care post-shootout is pretty out of touch with reality and what a medic can/cannot do.....otherwise we'd have medics running the trauma units overseas, which we dont. We have trauma surgeons.

The same holds true for all the zombie apocolypse stuff where people think EMTs and paramedics will be able to provide health services post apocalypse. Nonsense.

This is good info. Thank you. So, based on what Chuck described upstream, would you guess there's a vet involved? How do you think people are getting treatment for GSW?

[GK17]

TGS, what you're saying is true, as far as it goes and sticking to "by the book" rules and training but we're talking here about a subset of people with no regard for anything other than self.

I'm an RN, no extensive specialized high level training but after 40 years of ICU & ED experience if faced with a case of "you try or he dies" I'd be willing, if not happy, to do a lot of things beyond my job description level and in many cases that work might very well be "definitive". Bad guys with a medical background of any type aren't likely to be unwilling to do or try anything as long as there is a payoff for them. Do they have what we would consider "ethics"? Are the injured bg's odds for recovery lousy? Is the average thug known for making good choices in life?

These guys aren't trusting in God. They're thinking "If I go to the ER and they are able to patch me up I then go back to prison."

Wouldn't be surprised if the Mexican Cartels have a fairly sophisticated system running the gamut from field medics to surgeons and covert clinic/OR/hospital setups including air evac for higher level members that goes across national borders.


PS; In total agreement with you regarding the "Realism" of TV & Hollywood writers but good fiction takes facts & truth then stretches them as far as possible. Bad fiction is either based on falsehoods and/or stretches things until the rubber band of imagination snaps.

[TGS]

This is good info. Thank you. So, based on what Chuck described upstream, would you guess there's a vet involved? How do you think people are getting treatment for GSW?

Seems like in movies it's always a veterinarian or medical school student performing surgeries on criminals in some back room.

From my personal experiences, they always go to the hospital. I honestly can't remember an assault in our area where they didn't either go to the hospital via ambulance or self-reporting, or die in some secluded spot after trying to escape the scene. That's not to say there aren't unethical or corrupt healthcare workers who will perform services for criminals....there's corrupt people in every walk of life. But I'm not seeing how gang members, specifically, are able to afford the illegal services of a vetted doc......and even though the residents are only making $50k/year and buried in hundreds of thousands of $ in debt, they're too busy to get involved in such stuff.

[Trooper224]

If they are recruiting guys with combat experience, or training, they may be recruiting medics as well.



Recruiting isn't necessary. Most of them are gang affiliated prior to service and maintain those affiliations during and after their service.

[SouthNarc]

I have never seen it locally in this part of the state, or even heard of it, but then all of our vets are working OT on most days due to there being both pets and LOTS or horses and cattle around here.

I have no doubt it happens though.

I'm with Chuck on this. I've never seen a bad guy go anywhere other than the hospital. I think the idea of there being some kind of thug underground with vets and disgraced, alcoholic doctors on call is mostly a myth. May have happened somewhere...some place but that's not the norm.

[GK17]

Agree with you gentlemen of LE background. Not the Norm is certainly the case. Goy my interest whetted, though, so may poke around a bit about the Mob & current major cartels.

[abu fitna]

I'm with Chuck on this. I've never seen a bad guy go anywhere other than the hospital. I think the idea of there being some kind of thug underground with vets and disgraced, alcoholic doctors on call is mostly a myth. May have happened somewhere...some place but that's not the norm.

Off the books medical services for a range of issues is not as uncommon as one might think following the increasing complications of insurance, documentation, etc. and the overload of emergency rooms and urgent care facilities. Know of a few cases where access to antibiotics and other controlled supplies has been facilitated by nurse practitioners.

Also have heard tell of cases where abortion clinic staff may be moonlighting for other general medical needs as well. Usually started as an option for friends / relatives in otherwise closely knit urban communities, and of course extends via the usual network effects over time. Would not be surprised if this did not also include impromptu gunshot wound treatment for less than immediately life threatening cases.

Not my area, at least in the domestic environment, so have not spent a lot of time to vet or validate these discussions. I consider RUMINT, but as with any such sea story there is likely a grain of truth in there somewhere.

[Beat Trash]

In my city, they go to the level 1 trauma hospital. They also claim to have been an innocent victim of a robbery, they were minding their own business and were in the process of turning their lives around when they were shot for no reason.

[Hambo]

In my city, they go to the level 1 trauma hospital. They also claim to have been an innocent victim of a robbery, they were minding their own business and were in the process of turning their lives around when they were shot for no reason.

This, and sometimes they get dumped at the doors of the trauma center by their homies, only to die in surgery. Outdoor security cameras and license plate recognition would go a long way toward solving some of these shootings.

[Terence]

Recruiting isn't necessary. Most of them are gang affiliated prior to service and maintain those affiliations during and after their service.

Interesting. That would explain why the FBI report has a picture of a soldier in uniform flashing gang signs at the camera. Once in, never out - like the IRA?

[Terence]

Got curious about this and did some poking around:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10647578 (Link is SFW)

Added bold formatting to quote below:

BACKGROUND:

The best estimates of nonfatal gunshot wounds in the United States come from hospital emergency room data and may miss, among other things, wounded individuals who do not seek medical treatment. Criminals may be those least likely to rely on professional care for their wounds. This study provides evidence of whether medical care is solicited by criminals after gunshot wounds. In addition, the circumstances of the injury events are described.
METHODS:

A case series of 79 detainees at a Washington, DC, jail who had previously been shot in 93 separate incidents were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire. Data were obtained concerning the age and race of the victim, the location of the wound, and the length of hospital stay.
RESULTS:

In 92% of the incidents, respondents reported going to the hospital; one-third of those shot were hospitalized for more than 1 week. More than half (54%) had been hit in the head or torso, and 40% had a current disability attributable to the wound.
CONCLUSION:

Among these "criminals," the vast majority reported that they obtained professional care for their gunshot wounds. Such evidence suggests that individuals previously thought unlikely to enter the medical care system after a firearm injury usually do so. Statistics on medically treated nonfatal gunshot wounds probably do not substantially underestimate the actual number of nonfatal shootings.


ALSO

http://journals.lww.com/jtrauma/Abstract/2000/01000/Medical_Care_Solicitation_by_Criminals_with.23.asp x (Link is SFW)

Data on the number of people killed each year in the United States with firearms have been available for many years from death certificates and are considered to be quite accurate. By contrast, national data on the number of nonfatal woundings are only rough estimates. Probably the best current information comes from 3 years of study (1992–1995) using the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS). 1,2 The NEISS system comprises 91 hospitals that constitute a stratified probability sample of all hospitals in the United States that have at least six beds and provide 24-hour emergency service.

NEISS has several limitations. One is that it only collects data on firearm-related injuries treated in hospital emergency departments, so “patients with nonfatal firearm-related injuries who are untreated or treated in other types of medical care systems will be missed through this system.”1

A criminologist has suggested that collecting data only on medically treated gunshot wounds causes NEISS to severely underestimate the number of actual gunshot wounds. 3 He argues that most gunshot wounds are survivable without medical treatment, that most gunshot wound victims are criminals, and that because most doctors are required to report treatment of gunshot wounds to the police, criminals do not seek licensed professional treatment. Kleck concludes, without empirical evidence, that “while there may be only about 100,000–150,000 medically treated nonfatal gunshot woundings each year, there could easily be an equal or greater number that were not treated and therefore not counted by either medical or police agencies.”3

Jail detainees, individuals held in custody awaiting adjudication on criminal charges, frequently have extensive criminal records and previous experiences as victims of penetrating trauma. Previous surveys of inmates in correctional facilities have found that many have sustained gun-related injuries. 4–7 A study of adult male arrestees in 11 cities in 1995 found that 21% had been previously shot. 4 In Chicago, 26% of the men entering jail during a study period in 1994 were found to have been shot at least one time. 5

The object of this study is to describe the patterns of medical care solicitation among jail detainees who have been previously shot, the type of injury sustained, and the circumstances in which they were wounded. A goal is to provide information to help determine the size of the NEISS underestimate of gunshot injuries attributable to its exclusive focus on professional medical care.

[Trooper224]

Interesting. That would explain why the FBI report has a picture of a soldier in uniform flashing gang signs at the camera. Once in, never out - like the IRA?

Essentially, yes. The largest Army base here in my state also resides in one of the biggest shite hole communities we have. On occasion small arms wind up stolen from the armory and it's usually gang members in-service stealing them to sell on the street to their brethren. Years ago, I remember finding a LAW rocket in the trunk of a gang members car. Yep, stolen from that very installation.

[Kyle Reese]

In my city, they go to the level 1 trauma hospital. They also claim to have been an innocent victim of a robbery, they were minding their own business and were in the process of turning their lives around when they were shot for no reason.

That's just.....tragic. Anyone who is in the process of minding their own business or turning their lives around seems to catch six slugs in the chest at 2 AM in high crime areas. :(

[Terence]

Essentially, yes. The largest Army base here in my state also resides in one of the biggest shite hole communities we have. On occasion small arms wind up stolen from the armory and it's usually gang members in-service stealing them to sell on the street to their brethren. Years ago, I remember finding a LAW rocket in the trunk of a gang members car. Yep, stolen from that very installation.

Holy crap! How did the MPs at the base react when you told them one of their anti-tank weapons had gone missing?

[Kyle Reese]

Holy crap! How did the MPs at the base react when you told them one of their anti-tank weapons had gone missing?

Rank & file MP's? If they didn't sign for it, they don't care. ;)

The guy who signed for and was accountable for those items would no doubt be hating life......

[KeeFus]

Holy crap! How did the MPs at the base react when you told them one of their anti-tank weapons had gone missing?

They were like, "really, let's call CID." If I hadn't signed for it it would not have phased me. The subsequent lock down would have though. We never had anything go missing as far as a weapon. My first 2 years 10 months was nuke security (watching paint dry was more fun) and we never went anywhere with less than 2 people while in a limited area. If we lost one freaking round we had to search til we found it. And Lord help the pogue that lost it.

We did have the occasional gang member pop up. They usually did something stupid enough for someone to figure them out. They then made quick work of them and sent them packing. I often wondered how who ever did their background didn't pick up on it because we all had to have security clearances.

[Chuck Haggard]

It's common here for folks not in that bad a shape to drive to the next town over to seek treatment to try and avoid us connecting the dots on what happened.

[Trooper224]

Rank & file MP's? If they didn't sign for it, they don't care. ;)

The guy who signed for and was accountable for those items would no doubt be hating life......

That's about it. The amusing part was this: the bangers had never used it because they couldn't figure out how it worked. Amusing because it doesn't get much simpler than that.

[Terence]

That's about it. The amusing part was this: the bangers had never used it because they couldn't figure out how it worked. Amusing because it doesn't get much simpler than that.

Cunning enough to steal a LAW from the armory on a military base, but not smart enough to steal the instructions. You can't make this stuff up.

[SeriousStudent]

Cunning enough to steal a LAW from the armory on a military base, but not smart enough to steal the instructions. You can't make this stuff up.

It's been a while since I have fired one, but if I remember correctly the instructions were printed on the side. That was a couple of (okay, three) decades ago.

Of course, that does presuppose the ability to read English as well.

[Chuck Haggard]

It's been a while since I have fired one, but if I remember correctly the instructions were printed on the side. That was a couple of (okay, three) decades ago.

Of course, that does presuppose the ability to read English as well.

Not even that, it's got those comic book type instructions, at least the last couple I fired did.

[Trooper224]

Not even that, it's got those comic book type instructions, at least the last couple I fired did.

Indeed. Lest we get too critical of the disenfranchized bottom feeders, I've had to assist many average citizens who couldn't figure out the idiot illustrations on their car jack.

[abu fitna]

Got curious about this and did some poking around:



Thanks for the paper references, Terence.

This discussion reminds me quite a bit of an old exercise that one particular instructor used to run on new classes learning aspects of the targeting disciplines. The exercise assumed a problem that "everyone knew" did not really exist, as a thought experiment to examine how illicit transactions are conducted and how organizations develop from those transactions. For many years, the chosen example was organ smuggling. The original exercise design was based off the the debunked urban legends of drunk / drugged tourists waking up in a bathtub the next morning short one kidney, but asked the students to think about what kinds of activity would be involved if organ harvest and illicit sales really were occurring at scale.

A funny thing happened in those exercises, though. Just asking the question surfaced a whole lot of anecdotal stories, and leads to other information. And suddenly, what everyone knew wasn't possible started showing up right in front of more than one class. The interagency and international dynamics of the classes were actually very important to this - turns out there is a lot of stuff that just gets buried because it was assumed that there couldn't have been more to it than just one or two weird stories half remembered. At one point, a few students actually had been running cases where the issue was definitely in play - just not conducted how the urban legend assumed. Think corrupt influence on traditional medical practitioners, subversion of associated industry trades just outside of normal medical regulation, international medical tourism drivers, etc. Fast forward a few years, and major cases start making headline news - such as the incidents where mortuary services groups were selling tissue sourced from corpses to organ brokers.

I would not really be surprised to see a similar dynamic at work for provision of medical services outside of reportable channels to treat GSW. The argument of bad actor statics for prior survived wounds versus disclosed regional datasets is worth taking note of. I also wonder what kinds of correlations one might see looking at dumped bodies with some evidence of attempted (unsuccessful) treatment....

[Kyle Reese]

Not even that, it's got those comic book type instructions, at least the last couple I fired did.

I'm reminded of an anecdote from the various bush wars in Southern Africa in the 1970's - 1980's, where Marxist insurgents would attempt to fire rifle grenades from their Yugoslavian M59/66 carbines using a ball round, with predictable (and life altering) results.

[Terence]

I'm reminded of an anecdote from the various bush wars in Southern Africa in the 1970's - 1980's, where Marxist insurgents would attempt to fire rifle grenades from their Yugoslavian M59/66 carbines using a ball round, with predictable (and life altering) results.

I lived in South Africa in the 80s. Those insurgents were very possibly illiterate in their native language, to say nothing of English, Russian or Czech. Training them how to use explosives and radios must have been pretty difficult.

[RevolverRob]

Not to throw a wrench in this machine here...but I'm pretty sure the anecdotal evidence that criminals are better armed than previously is not an adaptation to armed citizens who conceal carry (the question in the OP). The one exception might be the group that said they armed up for robbing banks, pawn shops, and gun stores, but classically those are places where people have been and continue to be armed. I've almost never seen a better case here where correlation /= causation as this one...

Anyways, my point is criminals are better armed, because their main competition, other criminals, are better armed. By corollary the police are now better armed as well. Regarding Joe Schmoe CCW arming up in response and criminals arming up in response to that, I think that's simply false. I'm not sure how many criminals make their living ripping off purses, wallets, and cell phones, but in this day in age it doesn't seem to be many. And those that do commit those crimes often also appear to be at the bottom end of the criminal-predator spectrum (read they are the small sharks in the shark tank). If they had access to high end weaponry and armor, I suspect they'd be going after better targets than your iPhone and wallet.

FWIW - I have been evaluating the anecdotal evidence from my new locale here in Chicago. We average about three reported muggings a week in the neighborhood. In nearly every single case, victim selection was spot-on. The perp(s) identified a distracted victim who was walking 1) Alone in an uncrowded area, 2) Was manipulating their cellphone and thus distracted, 3) were in a place where a pre-determined ambush had been set. - To the T the victims were either not shown a weapon (one was indicated through a coat pocket) or were shown a handgun to coerce.

The only deviations from that M.O. are a few random muggings. In those cases, two-three perps are driving in a car and see a victim walking alone, distracted, and stop the vehicle and multiple assailants rush the victim and relieve them of their property. The only time anyone has been physically assaulted is from these particular assaults. They sometimes strike the victim to force them to comply.

What am I driving at here? Well, I suspect even if every person on the street had a loaded .45 the criminals wouldn't show up with AKs to relieve of your cellphone. They'd 1) Go look for a new set of victims, 2) Go look for a new neighborhood to operate in, or 3) Figure if they're going to get shot at, they might as well rob stash houses and their fellow criminals who have more money than you and I do anyways.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

I recall a discussion of criminal guns at the ASC meeting, I referenced before. Interviews indicated that the criminals liked new stuff (like all of us) and since there is so much new stuff around, they find it easier to get. No one mentioned the effect of concealed carry on criminal gun choice.

[GardoneVT]

Not to throw a wrench in this machine here...but I'm pretty sure the anecdotal evidence that criminals are better armed than previously is not an adaptation to armed citizens who conceal carry (the question in the OP). The one exception might be the group that said they armed up for robbing banks, pawn shops, and gun stores, but classically those are places where people have been and continue to be armed. I've almost never seen a better case here where correlation /= causation as this one...

Anyways, my point is criminals are better armed, because their main competition, other criminals, are better armed. By corollary the police are now better armed as well. Regarding Joe Schmoe CCW arming up in response and criminals arming up in response to that, I think that's simply false. I'm not sure how many criminals make their living ripping off purses, wallets, and cell phones, but in this day in age it doesn't seem to be many. And those that do commit those crimes often also appear to be at the bottom end of the criminal-predator spectrum (read they are the small sharks in the shark tank). If they had access to high end weaponry and armor, I suspect they'd be going after better targets than your iPhone and wallet.

FWIW - I have been evaluating the anecdotal evidence from my new locale here in Chicago. We average about three reported muggings a week in the neighborhood. In nearly every single case, victim selection was spot-on. The perp(s) identified a distracted victim who was walking 1) Alone in an uncrowded area, 2) Was manipulating their cellphone and thus distracted, 3) were in a place where a pre-determined ambush had been set. - To the T the victims were either not shown a weapon (one was indicated through a coat pocket) or were shown a handgun to coerce.

The only deviations from that M.O. are a few random muggings. In those cases, two-three perps are driving in a car and see a victim walking alone, distracted, and stop the vehicle and multiple assailants rush the victim and relieve them of their property. The only time anyone has been physically assaulted is from these particular assaults. They sometimes strike the victim to force them to comply.

What am I driving at here? Well, I suspect even if every person on the street had a loaded .45 the criminals wouldn't show up with AKs to relieve of your cellphone. They'd 1) Go look for a new set of victims, 2) Go look for a new neighborhood to operate in, or 3) Figure if they're going to get shot at, they might as well rob stash houses and their fellow criminals who have more money than you and I do anyways.

For street crimes that makes sense.

That being said, a certain subset of crimes are acts of pure evil, perpetrated by lowlife animals uninterested in civilized conduct or obvious profit. For the kind of bad guy(s) who think a night of "fun" involves invading a home and torturing the occupants, or shooting someone and then stealing their car for other crimes, they'd see the value of "up-arming" if their targets are too.

I could be wrong in that assessment, but that's why I started the thread.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

Such criminals probably look for weak and submissive victims. The Petit incident demonstrated victim selection. Unless, there is research to support this hypothesis, I really doubt a criminal is going to say -

Why that seems to be a household full of Glock 19s. Thus, I'd better go buy an AK-47 so I can storm the place in a firefight.

The sexual predators seem to look for weakness and burglars try to avoid confrontation in the USA because of the possibility of armed homeowners. That's been in the literature for quite a bit. The Dartmouth professor murderers, for example, were deterred by a homeowner with a Glock. They did not up arm and go back to that armed household.

[Terence]

Even the mighty lion does not pick the toughest wildebeest in the herd. Lions pick the old, the young, the weak. Is it not the same with human predators?

[Haraise]

Even the mighty lion does not pick the toughest wildebeest in the herd. Lions pick the old, the young, the weak. Is it not the same with human predators?

That's getting into the openly alert/open carry vs gray man debate... but yes, in my experience, look weak and get hurt. Look strong and wary, they'll go elsewhere except for circumstances that are too good to pass up.

[Tamara]

That's getting into the openly alert/open carry vs gray man debate...

A person can open carry and still not look "strong and wary"; that's just another variant of the "gun as ballistic rabbit's foot" belief.

[Terence]

Didn't you share an article a while back about a guy who was open carrying and got robbed?

[Kyle Reese]

Didn't you share an article a while back about a guy who was open carrying and got robbed?

So you're saying that the mere act of open carrying a firearm doesn't ward off hooligans & criminals?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3sLhnDJJn0

[NickA]

A person can open carry and still not look "strong and wary"; that's just another variant of the "gun as ballistic rabbit's foot" belief.

In his latest Ballistic Radio interview Tom Givens had a great line about that. The gist was "You think the rabbit's foot is lucky, but remember what happened to the rabbit: somebody killed him and chopped his feet off."
[side rant- when the hell is SwiftKey going to figure out that when I type "Tom", it's almost always going to be "Givens", and never Cruise or Brady? Jeez.]

[Drang]

Didn't you share an article a while back about a guy who was open carrying and got robbed?

Consensus is that the kid who got his .22, open carried in an Uncle Mikes sausage sack, stolen from him in the bad part of town at 0300 involved too many stupid things, stupid places, and stupid people to mean much.

[ILoveSigs]

For BGs to up their game, CCW holders would first have to up theirs enough to be a threat. People on this forum are not the norm in CCW. Most are like a friend of mine who recently said he wants to upgrade from his DB9. I was hoping he'd at least go to something the size of a PPS and CARRY IT instead of leaving it in his truck 90% of the time. His response was that on body carry would be too much of a paradigm shift for him and that he wants a higher dollar/quality micro 9 for the rare occasions he stuffs it in a pocket.

This is an excellent example of what I came here to say: CCW holders are just not enough of a threat. They're in the minority, first of all, and always will be. And secondly, the overwhelming majority of them don't regularly carry and that's not going to change either. If 10% (a very high number) of the adult population in your area has a carry license, no more than 0.5-1% of them regularly carry. That's only 1 in 100 adults packing heat that the goblins have to worry about - that's really not much and as such they're not going to worry about them.

We're just not enough of a factor to cause the bad guys to change up their game. This is a good thing, because if they do then guess what? Now we have a problem. Right now our countermeasures work pretty damned well, we want to keep it that way. We don't want them to change or adapt, and I really don't think they're going to.