Hurricane Season 2019

[Thy.Will.Be.Done]

I have been informed that Denis Phillips is a great source for hurricane information that is accurate and not overblown.

Here is his update from within the hour for the Bay Area :

"Morning Dorian Thoughts:
1. Models are coming into agreement on the future track of Dorian. We are still over 3 days from landfall.
2. While there is still the possibility of the ridge collapsing and Dorian curving sooner, people along the Southeast coast of Florida are facing the reality of a slow moving Cat 3 or 4 hurricane coming ashore on Monday. Evacuations will begin soon in these areas.
3. Based on the current track, Highlands county will see the strongest winds in the Bay Area from Dorian. They will likely see hurricane force winds. (75 to 90) Polk county will also see hurricane force winds as the storm weakens as it moves North. I would think shelters will open for these areas, especially for folks living in mobile homes.
4. The rest of our area will see tropical storm winds. (45 to 65). It will be a slow moving storm and will weaken considerably by the time it gets to the Bay Area. That is true of the Orlando area as well.
5. We will see heavy rains and power outages, but they will pale in comparison to what the Gold and Treasure coasts will see.
6. We have ALL seen storms take unexpected turns. It happened with Charley. It happened with Irma. It happens all the time. We pray it happens with Dorian. This is a small, but powerful storm. The worst of the winds will probably be about 15 miles wide. Let's hope it finds a way to avoid the more populated areas. However, if you live in an evacuation zone, or have family or friends who do, make sure they get out if they must. "Stuff" can be replaced, people can't.
7. Once landfall occurs, it will weaken rapidly. At that point, Dorian becomes a major rain maker. Our team will be here 24/7 to help those in the path of Dorian and those on the fringes. This impacts ALL of us, and our team is here for you.

Also worth reading for those who don't already know...

"Rules For Hurricane Season By

1. Storm track errors past 3 days are HUGE. Don't get caught up on forecasts that far out. You'll go crazy.

2. Models flip flop back and forth all the time. Look for trends, don't look at individual model runs.

3. If you didn't prepare in June (which you probably didn't), do so now. Check your hurricane kit and guide to see what YOU and your family
need.

4. Don't freak out.

5. Don't freak out. Ok? We live in Florida. It goes with the territory. The odds of a storm affecting us directly is usually low, and the track that the NHC now has, would probably lift Northeast and weaken considerably after passing Cuba. The track will change often. At this point, our chances of a direct strikes are EXTREMELY LOW. LET'S REPEAT THAT ONE, our chances of a direct strikes are EXTREMELY low.

6. KNOW that we will be there will you 24-7. You're going to hear a ton of information. It can get confusing. Stick with us. We won't steer you wrong.

7. Stop freaking out....until I tell you to. We're fine.
Authored by Denis Phillips"

Link to Facebook below ....

https://www.facebook.com/denisphillipswfts/?hc_ref=ARSBmuBwXGhnwinDXs4hAXcb0-NdSRZ3votJ7P2ydPn6jGeVjEq_k-AHABzp_REvdRc&__xts__[0]=68.ARAqFRgQbHnt4ly25MBpziIUM0KALnCRIjDYXFdW_I0ejv 0N61D7rN9V0n76H4bHKqlL93rn51etzHli7Xg8pcBVSZIxtYKS iKJrJTkbrT-L2z5f0XrUInuh5hP0dCbdmMNODqA2m6DNfovYeQgmJXRDpMCpm rGv9lkbzv2T3IbOA7v_uI02yk6KSADzMvuatDPVMqtsi4NT9jA 6L_ha0wBs_WKjZfRTpmewLMRe6dO_PxB0SkhkZOvOjFPg7cbLP v358aqdWai-aBgy0j0VVFrOIXN33gockW9_21-0PIOnhuh350C_bVK9QnlNkKDAFB4mwP6wkdrIEt_x0R1REaFHm LB34eToS153jNGLy-ULtrXl6-6bzYDdOaEJ92mp58ZZ95mO--1vnhJswx0lvDWWsHY2UIocaPxjmVxkcYlfmRFKcchbOF_etVkP Gev_vMfQga2gqm2uNP9zlx2EimIhhDjW0GCCgwg4pUtU2hhYnq s&__tn__=kC-R

[rob_s]

don't mind me, just adding to my list of dumbass stuff I shoulda been already done (said in redneck voice because I sure feel like some kinda po white trash right now...)

• fuck the money, I need to sort out the windows/shutters/screening issue so I can sleep better when these things happen. Right now I'd happily give someone $50k to make this all go away.
• the wife is pretty anti-stockpile, but again I'd feel better knowing I had a couple of buckets of mountain house and a couple of gallons of water. Going to order those buckets and re-stock my secret water supply (somehow it's all gone now, guess it was "needed") after this.
• I've been wanting a secondary freezer for quite some time, but again wife doesn't think it's necessary. While not a requirement, I'd really like to have one going forward with a couple of bags of ice kept in it.
• Buy a smaller inverter generator to go with your big bertha. It's great to have a generator and all, but if you can't get it into the back of your truck when you bug out, it's not all that helpful.

[ragnar_d]

don't mind me, just adding to my list of dumbass stuff I shoulda been already done (said in redneck voice because I sure feel like some kinda po white trash right now...)

• fuck the money, I need to sort out the windows/shutters/screening issue so I can sleep better when these things happen. Right now I'd happily give someone $50k to make this all go away.
• the wife is pretty anti-stockpile, but again I'd feel better knowing I had a couple of buckets of mountain house and a couple of gallons of water. Going to order those buckets and re-stock my secret water supply (somehow it's all gone now, guess it was "needed") after this.
• I've been wanting a secondary freezer for quite some time, but again wife doesn't think it's necessary. While not a requirement, I'd really like to have one going forward with a couple of bags of ice kept in it.
• Buy a smaller inverter generator to go with your big bertha. It's great to have a generator and all, but if you can't get it into the back of your truck when you bug out, it's not all that helpful.

My situation is similar. I've slacked on preparedness but the wife has decided that me pouring resources into preparedness are a good thing now. I've been "cleared hot" (again) to go forward and conquer on preparations as far as power, climate control, and food/water go. Hopefully it sticks this time.

I'm with you on the generator situation as well. I'm looking at getting a larger inverter generator to replace my older 5kw regular generator, but I'll also be getting a couple smaller 2K or 1K units to augment that as well. We've got the garage/beer fridge and freezer loaded with frozen water bottles, so that should do for now. When I finally settle down somewhere for longer than two years, I'll be adding an extra freezer and get back heavy into food storage. Luckily we're good on water, 60-70 gallons total now between flats from costco and bulk storage (15 gallon poly drums and 5 gallon Scepter poly jerry cans).

[JTQ]

I don't begrudge people having generators, but I wish they'd get the gas for them a couple of weeks out. It's no fun trying to evacuate when you can't find gas for your car because the folks with generators have been buying all their gas at the last minute.

[Thy.Will.Be.Done]

To anybody stockpiling ice, a few important points....

Cubed, crushed, shaved ice is for beverages only, NOT for keeping stuff cold. It will melt much quicker, which can be a good thing if you want something as cold as possible for short period of time. Long term, block ice is the correct choice for food storage applications. I recommend 10 or 20 lb. blocks if you can find them or make them yourself (need a good mold and technique + lots of time to freeze.

You can also use milk jugs in a pinch, which is nice as it contains the water as it melts ut they can break if not careful. You should freeze the water in parts at a time to avoid breakage, say may 1/3 or 1/4 at a time and add more when last layer freezes solid. I am doing this myself tonight as I have a good large Pelican cooler that can keep all my fresh produce cold for a week or two filled with block ice.

[Hambo]

I don't begrudge people having generators, but I wish they'd get the gas for them a couple of weeks out.

Two weeks ago Dorian was a tropical wave somewhere in the Atlantic. The fun things you get to see at the gas station though. I topped up our cars and filled a 5 gal can on Wednesday. While there, a guy was standing in the back of a pickup filling two 55gal food grade drums. Two major fire safety mistakes with one customer: filling containers in the truck bed (potential static source) and putting gas in a container it will melt. If only he'd have had a cigarette dangling from his mouth he could have had the trifecta.

[RJ]

Currently about to go around Macon on I475.

Traffic from Ocala to Valdosta was light. We refueled at a Shell in Valdosta and had no issues.

Number of cars, RVs, and trucks increased considerably at that point. Looks like we are going through ATL at rush hour, argh. Oh well.

[ranger]

Currently about to go around Macon on I475.

Traffic from Ocala to Valdosta was light. We refueled at a Shell in Valdosta and had no issues.

Number of cars, RVs, and trucks increased considerably at that point. Looks like we are going through ATL at rush hour, argh. Oh well.

Not rush hour in Atlanta but rush hour in Atlanta on 1) Friday, 2) Long Holiday Weekend, 3) Dragon-Con, 4) College/High School football weekend, 5) Hurricane hitting FL!

If you have the Florida Sun Pass or such you can use the express lanes if they are headed in the direction you need.

Good luck!

[StraitR]

5pm update is showing an earlier turn, running parallel with the coast, running 5-15 miles inland all the way up the state. That can be good and bad news, but hoping the next update is an even earlier turn (or more drastic) staying just offshore like Michael did.

[jetfire]

I am real tired of these fuckin storms hitting when I’m out of the state but all the shit I care about is stuck there. My wife is 8.5 months pregnant so she can’t evacuate, and although the tracks are showing that Miami-Dade probably won’t get completely blasted, I’d feel a lot better if I was home.