Crime Down?

[Tom Givens]

The mainstream media desperately wants you to believe that crime is trending downward in the US. The exact opposite is true. Here are some facts.

https://crimeresearch.org/2024/04/th...-report-crime/

[CraigS]

Yep, 'The Five' on Fox discussed this last week. I missed most of it so don't have any details. I was glad to hear they pointed out that the FBI stats are suspect. Glad they discussed it, pi$$ed that it is probably true. Of course the people who need this info probably don't watch Fox.

[Coyotesfan97]

Crime stats can be fixed however the agency wants them to be. Need more money crimes up. Chief wants to look good crimes down. If they’re saying reported crime is down they’d be right.

[45dotACP]

The three types of lies are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Sent from my SM-A326U using Tapatalk

[Horseman]

The money quote: "..This divergence arises for several reasons. In 2021, 37% of police departments stopped reporting crime data to the FBI (including large departments for Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York), and others are under reporting-crimes."

No wonder crime is "down".

The heyjackass.com statistics site has been reporting this kind of malarkey in Chicago for quite some time. They have roasted the local politicos for saying murders are down, which is technically true: They went from 648 in '22, to "only" 578 in '23...

Additionally, as Mr. Givens points out in his classes, the homicide rate would be much higher, if it weren't for our advanced state-of-the-art trauma care.

[Dog Face Gremlin]

and who believes the FBI............omo.

[BehindBlueI's]

I'm well satisfied violent crime is down in my city. I don't need UCR stats to make that determination, given I can simply look at booking. Some level of crime always goes unreported, and I'm pretty skeptical of anyone who thinks they know the unknown, but we can make some educated guesses on the following:

Murders are nearly always reported. A few are unresolved missing persons, but by and large dead people get noticed.
Aggravated Assaults with deadly weapons are almost always reported, if it's bad enough to need medical attention it gets in front of mandatory reporters.
Rapes are systematically under reported in any given time frame for a host of reasons.

Part of the issue is likely the move from UCR to NIBRS reporting. UCR only counted the top level crime. If someone was robbed, raped, and murdered UCR only counted the murder as a crime. NIBRS is more granular and will count all three. This likely results in an increase in robberies and rapes, though still won't capture the entirety of robberies because there's a lot of murders were you just don't know if a robbery/attempt robbery was a component. Remember how many murders are between drug dealers and their clientele if you wonder why.

Arrest rates are down. Part of this is prosecutors turning down less perfect cases they would have filed before either due to politics or the still-massive court backlog from COVID. Also talent flight, resulting in fewer trial prosecutors for a higher caseload and a less experienced group unable to pull cases across the line which results in screening being more harsh. Part is crime often takes place in neighborhoods nobody wants to cooperate with the police for a variety of reasons. Specific to murder, there's a slight uptick in death of offender clearance rates. Not surprising as a very very large chunk of murders are between known groups and the resulting "wars", true stranger murders are definitely down. Perhaps some correlation to a large uptick in justifiable homicides, like 2x or 3x the number vs pre-COVID numbers. We also went to constitutional carry, unknown if causation is present but correlation is strong.

So while I can't and won't comment on the validity of any national trends or numbers, I'm sure that folks in my demographic in my city are in no more danger from crime today than they were 5 or 10 years ago. That will apply to the vast majority of people reading this, given most of you probably aren't involved in the drug trade, aren't willing to kill or be killed over a minor insult, don't use social media to do insult songs about someone then arrange a fight with them, etc. and don't hang out with the people who do.

[Paul Blackburn]

I'm well satisfied violent crime is down in my city. I don't need UCR stats to make that determination, given I can simply look at booking. Some level of crime always goes unreported, and I'm pretty skeptical of anyone who thinks they know the unknown, but we can make some educated guesses on the following:

Murders are nearly always reported. A few are unresolved missing persons, but by and large dead people get noticed.
Aggravated Assaults with deadly weapons are almost always reported, if it's bad enough to need medical attention it gets in front of mandatory reporters.
Rapes are systematically under reported in any given time frame for a host of reasons.

Part of the issue is likely the move from UCR to NIBRS reporting. UCR only counted the top level crime. If someone was robbed, raped, and murdered UCR only counted the murder as a crime. NIBRS is more granular and will count all three. This likely results in an increase in robberies and rapes, though still won't capture the entirety of robberies because there's a lot of murders were you just don't know if a robbery/attempt robbery was a component. Remember how many murders are between drug dealers and their clientele if you wonder why.

Arrest rates are down. Part of this is prosecutors turning down less perfect cases they would have filed before either due to politics or the still-massive court backlog from COVID. Also talent flight, resulting in fewer trial prosecutors for a higher caseload and a less experienced group unable to pull cases across the line which results in screening being more harsh. Part is crime often takes place in neighborhoods nobody wants to cooperate with the police for a variety of reasons. Specific to murder, there's a slight uptick in death of offender clearance rates. Not surprising as a very very large chunk of murders are between known groups and the resulting "wars", true stranger murders are definitely down. Perhaps some correlation to a large uptick in justifiable homicides, like 2x or 3x the number vs pre-COVID numbers. We also went to constitutional carry, unknown if causation is present but correlation is strong.

So while I can't and won't comment on the validity of any national trends or numbers, I'm sure that folks in my demographic in my city are in no more danger from crime today than they were 5 or 10 years ago. That will apply to the vast majority of people reading this, given most of you probably aren't involved in the drug trade, aren't willing to kill or be killed over a minor insult, don't use social media to do insult songs about someone then arrange a fight with them, etc. and don't hang out with the people who do.

Nice explanation!

Whats your read on cities like Chicago, Philly, NYC, and these cities with very large homeless population and very large newly arrived illegal aliens?

[breakingtime91]

I love in a relatively small town and the community is very close. We have seen an uptick in thefts, armed robberies, and multiple attackers.

I used to think it wasn't getting worst, it is. Quickly.

[blues]

I live a few miles outside of a small town. Our sheriff's office has an app which I recently downloaded. It keeps me up to date with notifications, (severe weather and other things we need to know), and we can check on recent arrests and detentions. It's interesting to keep up with.