Crime Down?

[TGS]

Nice explanation!

Whats your read on cities like Chicago, Philly, NYC, and these cities with very large homeless population and very large newly arrived illegal aliens?

I can comment that DC has definitely suffered from increased violent crime, which has affected "normal" people not in the demographic covered by BehindBlueI's. It has spilled over into areas you'd previously go out to hang out at/get dinner if you were a normally employed professional who lives in the region.

The result is that it has killed "local" tourism....people from the suburbs don't drive into the city to do things as often as they did before. Car jacking in particular is through the roof. In general, I can go out to eat in Virginia without having to worry about a random gang shooting breaking out in the restaurant...the same cannot be said for inside DC...it has happened twice at venues I had personally eaten at within weeks of the respective incident.

This, alongside the "fair wage tax" (or whatever the fuck it's called) for restaurant staff has basically killed local tourism from the suburbs.

FWIW, I've actually liked DC as a city for the majority of my adult life. It's not like I'm anti-city. Additionally, I used to spend a lot of time in Philadelphia and loved it, but that turn for the worst happened well before the 2020 summer of love...around 2014 or 2015 or so, Philly got rid of its vagrancy laws which basically turned the previously nice sections into a petting zoo for the homeless. They did not mind their own business, unlike @BehindBlueI's exemplary unhoused denizens.

Im not aware of Illegal aliens being a large source for increased trouble, though. I'm pretty Machiavellian when it comes to border control, but (elephant in the room alert) the problems in this area seem to be almost entirely stemming from black street gangs who are capitalizing on the de-policing movement within DC...which is also why you see a dramatic drop in their activity when you hit the Potomac river, where Virginia has not suffered nearly as much de-policing. We've got Hispanic gangs in Northern Virginia, but that's still tracking along the historical norms for who/what/where/when/why.

[BehindBlueI's]

Philly got rid of its vagrancy laws which basically turned the previously nice sections into a petting zoo for the homeless. They did not mind their own business, unlike @BehindBlueI's exemplary unhoused denizens.

One could wonder if the prevalence of concealed carry and the willingness to face shoot ne'r-do-wells influences those differences. They contribute to non-violent crime most certainly, car break ins are probably as endemic here as anywhere, but they tend to not stab or assault the gen pop. Accidental arson of abandos is a thing in the winter as well, as they build a fire to stay warm in a place that wasn't designed to have a fire built in it. Like the middle of the fucking floor.

I watched a group of homeless guys make one of their numbers stand in the corner once. I don't know what his infraction was, but he complied.

[Joe in PNG]

I can comment that DC has definitely suffered from increased violent crime, which has affected "normal" people not in the demographic covered by BehindBlueI's. It has spilled over into areas you'd previously go out to hang out at/get dinner if you were a normally employed professional who lives in the region.

Then again, Hunter S Thompson records being told what a lawless & crime riddled hellhole DC was back in 1971 in the first chapters of "Fear & Loathing in the Campaign Trail '72".

As HCM noted, lots of poor young men = lots of crime.

[HCM]

Then again, Hunter S Thompson records being told what a lawless & crime riddled hellhole DC was back in 1971 in the first chapters of "Fear & Loathing in the Campaign Trail '72".

As HCM noted, lots of poor young men = lots of crime.

Lots of young men period (regardless of economic status) = lots of crime.

Lots of poor people = lots of crime.

Lots of poor young men = even more crime.

[HCM]

I can comment that DC has definitely suffered from increased violent crime, which has affected "normal" people not in the demographic covered by BehindBlueI's. It has spilled over into areas you'd previously go out to hang out at/get dinner if you were a normally employed professional who lives in the region.

The result is that it has killed "local" tourism....people from the suburbs don't drive into the city to do things as often as they did before. Car jacking in particular is through the roof. In general, I can go out to eat in Virginia without having to worry about a random gang shooting breaking out in the restaurant...the same cannot be said for inside DC...it has happened twice at venues I had personally eaten at within weeks of the respective incident.

This, alongside the "fair wage tax" (or whatever the fuck it's called) for restaurant staff has basically killed local tourism from the suburbs.

FWIW, I've actually liked DC as a city for the majority of my adult life. It's not like I'm anti-city. Additionally, I used to spend a lot of time in Philadelphia and loved it, but that turn for the worst happened well before the 2020 summer of love...around 2014 or 2015 or so, Philly got rid of its vagrancy laws which basically turned the previously nice sections into a petting zoo for the homeless. They did not mind their own business, unlike @BehindBlueI's exemplary unhoused denizens.

Im not aware of Illegal aliens being a large source for increased trouble, though. I'm pretty Machiavellian when it comes to border control, but (elephant in the room alert) the problems in this area seem to be almost entirely stemming from black street gangs who are capitalizing on the de-policing movement within DC...which is also why you see a dramatic drop in their activity when you hit the Potomac river, where Virginia has not suffered nearly as much de-policing. We've got Hispanic gangs in Northern Virginia, but that's still tracking along the historical norms for who/what/where/when/why.

The question of illegals being a large source of crime comes down to it depends.

Traditional migration patterns have been that the largest Demographic among migrants is young single men. Young single men, regardless of ethnicity, commit the majority of crimes, this is aggravated when you have large numbers of young single men living away from the home, family, and societal restraints that normally mitigate this to some degree. That’s true of a bunch of day laborers, living together in a house, a bunch of college students living together in a house, a bunch of young military members living together in a house, etc.

Has Rudyard Kipling said, single men in barracks do not live the lives of plaster Saints

Family migration which we are seeing more of again tends to have less street crime and quality of life crimes but oftenresult in more organized crime as people try to cut corners while establishing their place in a new society.

[TGS]

Then again, Hunter S Thompson records being told what a lawless & crime riddled hellhole DC was back in 1971 in the first chapters of "Fear & Loathing in the Campaign Trail '72".

As HCM noted, lots of poor young men = lots of crime.

I can't speak for back then, but from 2007-2019, crime wasn't a concern for the areas I'd visit for recreation in DC. 2020-present, spillover crime is a concern for those areas, as well as teenagers thinking they have the right to carjack you pretty much anywhere in the city. Previously, that wasn't really a thing.

[Wondering Beard]

Lots of young men period (regardless of economic status) = lots of crime.

Lots of poor people = lots of crime.

Lots of poor young men = even more crime.

To adapt it somewhat (correct me if I'm wrong):

Lots of young men = lots of stupid activity, a lot of it is crime.

Lots of poor people = lots of prey thus lots of crime

Lots of poor young men = lots of stupidity plus lots of prey thus lots of crime.

[HCM]

To adapt it somewhat (correct me if I'm wrong):

Lots of young men = lots of stupid activity, a lot of it is crime.

Lots of poor people = lots of prey thus lots of crime

Lots of poor young men = lots of stupidity plus lots of prey thus lots of crime.

No. The lots of poor people does not = lots of prey, it equals more people committing crimes. When economic conditions are bad enough people who would not otherwise turn to crime turn to crime. Your kids go hungry you’re gonna do what you gotta do.

[Joe in PNG]

No. The lots of poor people does not = lots of prey, it equals more people committing crimes. When economic conditions are bad enough people who would not otherwise turn to crime turn to crime. Your kids go hungry you’re gonna do what you gotta do.

Poor people are also likely to turn to drugs & booze as a means of coping with their situation. And the abuse of drugs & booze inevitably leads to more crime.

[BehindBlueI's]

Our current stats specific to homicide: Criminal is down nearly 20% over this time last year. Justified is up right at 9%. Note this does include some that are pending official prosecutor turn down but are considered 'slam dunk' self-defense/defense of others.

A hand full of the criminals are 'pending' as they are likely to be justified but not slam dunks at the current phase of investigation.

This is after last year which also saw a huge increase in justifieds. Again, unsure if constitutional carry is causation but correlation is strong.