You should really base the expected value off of the "real" winnings: what you get if you don't take the annuity, and after taxes. Then include the odds of an unknown number of other winners also picking the same numbers and splitting the grand prize, and the odds of you winning smaller prizes.Originally Posted by OlongJohnson
You must be a blast at cocktail parties… [emoji6]
(Pushes glasses up nose) You’re right, though. You could take it one step further and calculate the present value of the after-tax cash flows from the annuity, compare it to the after-tax cash flow of the immediate payout, and then use the option with the highest present value for your expected payoff calculation.
Or you could just have fun fantasizing.
Why not Greenland?
In the P-F basket of deplorables.
I have no personal connection or interest in Greenland. I like and miss Sedona, or perhaps more accurately the surrounding areas, and the climate for most of the year. If it snows it melts in a day or so. Not so Greenland.
Ireland has family history, much interesting history and old tower houses, besides a mild climate, unlike Greenland.
“Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.”
― Theodore Roosevelt
100% it is a voluntary Tax. You have a better chance of getting hit by lightning.
Yeah but the payoff is better with the lottery. Way more fun. To me its worth the few dollars now and then just to dream big and think of all the things I could do for people.
“Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.”
― Theodore Roosevelt
I have often wondered, what is the odds of winning via buying a ticket, verses the odds of winning by finding a winning ticket on the ground?
My mom tends to go to the boat for gambling (bad odds, entertainment), while my father prefers lottery tickets (what is it, twice a week?). He called today as he wasn't going to get out to get one, and I am right by a convenience store. Cheap entertainment for him. My version, I can imagine the good, bad, who I need to talk to and have access to, etc. without spending the money.
If I wanted a ticket, I probably would ask a friend of mine, who has been hit by lightening three times, or the dog he was walking, on one of those times.
PF engraved DAO 3 inch black GP100s for all members if someone here wins?
Assuming 40% effective tax rate on winnings (state & local) and ~450 tickets sold per drawing:
In case that screenshot doesn't come through, my estimation is that a $2 ticket is worth about $0.89 and a $3 "just the jackpot" ticket is worth about $1.36 (both roughly 45% of your initial "investment")
Odds don't mean squat to the guy who actually gets hit though.
The odds of just getting your $2 back are 1:37. I certainly wouldn't invest in any enterprise that offered a 1:37 chance of simply breaking even. But for an (astronomically slim) chance of a couple hundred million - eh that's worth 2 bucks now and then.
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