That's the most intellectually-honest appraisal of the situation I've ever read. I feel smarter for having read it; you're a good instructor!Having taught for a zillion years, Tam - I never assume that folks have common knowledge or common sense! That analysis of the AWB was in the Koper and Roth work. I heard them present their original report that was sponsored by the DOJ. The progun folks took away that the AWB was stupid and thus no such legislation would work. The antigun folks took away that the law was poorly designed and implemented. That's why later proposed bans are much stricter. Of course, some laws were stupid - as the NY 7 round mag law. Supposedly Cuomo wanted to ban higher cap mags and proposed a 5 round limit. He was told that currently folks make 10 rounders for guns (these are for the ones that can carry even more - I have a set of 10 round G19 round mag I bought cheap for reloads in IDPA). So Cuomo sez - I will propose 7 rounders and we will be first in NY. That fell apart with the silliness that you could buy 10 round mags but only loaded to 7 - which I think is the current state of things in NY - haven't followed that recently.
The excuse defense for owning ARs and the like will not work. Calling them modern sporting rifles or denying that they are not military derivative - easily set aside by a well schooled antigun person. The mag limit - say it's stupid because some rampagers have used the 10 rounders (didn't Cho carry zillions of them?) - OK - so let us have even more capacity? That's not going to convince an anti.
My view is that the 2nd exists for self-defense and defense against tyranny and thus we need effacious guns. Saying they are for sport - you buy into a limit. If I take my shotgun into the field here I have to limit the rounds (but I don't have to limit my HD shotgun). Sports usage defense is dangerous. The Australians tried it and it didn't sway the general public.
The US gun world has two cultures - SD and sports - yes there is a Venn diagram overlap but SD rules nowadays. The AR purchases are clearly more for SD than sport.