Thugs, Adaptation,& Concealed Carry.

[Chuck Haggard]

The "thugs" in my city are not carrying POS pocket guns any more. That ended about 10 years ago. In the "Thug World", 9mm's are the norm in my city. Long guns used to be rare. When one was recovered, everyone talked about it in court the next day. Now, not so much... The long guns, AK's SKS's and AR's are usually reserved by the Thugs for when they are really serious.

Body armor was also a rare thing a few years ago. Now, it's showing up more and more. Still not a common thing, but it's being seen more often.

The Thug world is definitely adapting. When it comes to street robberies, what I am seeing in my city is a change in tactics more so than a change in equipment. The "lone gunman" is being replaced by a group, usually three. Instead of being aligned shoulder to shoulder like an El Presidente drill, they split and approach from three different angles. Picture three armed men approaching from 2, 10, and 6 o'clock, all armed and all approaching at the same time.

There have been several topics lately about what constitutes an appropriate CCW gun to protect yourself. One discusses the difference between a "carry gun" and a "combat gun". I offer that if the gun is being carried for defense, then there is no difference between the two.

No CCW gun is appropriate if you leave your situational awareness at home that day. You don't have to go through life paranoid of being attacked. But you should excersize some level of awareness of your surroundings as you go about your life.

I like to point out that this upgrade in pistols is completely due to the supply of cheap, crappy "SNS" guns drying up due to being banned and no longer made, so bad guys have upgraded to what they can get. Many thanks gun control crowd, you folks are awesome.

[Artemas]

Some of it might just be Darwinism.

Here is a 2012 article from Greg Ellifritz, he talks about some of the guns his department has seized and their condition among other things.

http://www.activeresponsetraining.ne...uns-they-carry

Nine of the 85 weapons were completely broken and unable to function. 17 more of the guns had limited functionality because of frequent (at least 1 in the first 3 rounds I fired) malfunctions, lack of magazines (5 guns), and other problems like incorrect magazines, and internal parts breakage that lead to inconsistent firing ability.

The whole thing is an interesting read, but not something to bet you life on.

This is close to what Chuck has said

The guns were not all cheaply made either. The three most commonly represented handgun manufacturers in this study (Ruger, Smith and Wesson, and Glock) are generally known to make quality, reliable handguns. Only about 23% of the guns we took from criminals could be considered “Saturday Night Specials”.

[41magfan]

If our law and order culture were to deteriorate to some great extent, you would obviously see more displays of anarchy like the stuff we've seen on a limited basis with the rioting and looting incidents we’ve experienced here in the U.S.

Collectively, the average crook usually does a fairly decent job of picking the right victim, i.e. someone who appears to be unaware and unlikely to resist. So regardless of how many gun-toters there may be out there, there are still plenty of “prey” examples for them to choose from.

The train comes off the tracks for most crooks in two general circumstances;

1. When they encounter a victim that “appears” to be unaware and unlikely to resist but is in fact armed. That description actually fits the majority of CCW holders walking around in public. But even though they’re armed - and not really prepared - they usually persevere because most crooks don’t have a workable Plan-B when their intended victim(s) effectively resist.

2. The other general circumstance is when they interject themselves in scenarios that involve too many potential victims for them to plan for or control. The most common example would be a retail robbery with multiple patrons present. This is where the dynamic of concealed carry by average citizens is having the greatest impact on crime ….. not so much as prevention, but as an active interruption to the criminal event.

The wild card obviously is a crook that’s stoned out of his mind when he commits his crimes. These folks don’t do a very good job of picking victims or places to victimize so there’s nothing passive that can be done to deter these knuckleheads.

[Rosco Benson]

The thugs may indeed adapt to more folks carrying, but it'll take time and will be the result of more of them being shot or put to flight. Right now, there just isn't enough of that happening on a regular basis to shift their paradigm (IMO). Still, one ought to train and equip as if he were going to be fighting well trained, well equipped, and motivated attackers.

As far as criminal adaptation goes, as people carry less cash and rely on their debit cards more, there are more instances of victims being forced to go to an ATM and withdraw cash for the robber. This took quite a while and a real shift in how people purchase things to lead to this.

Rosco

[GK17]

Thank you, OP, for starting a great thread and to all the rest of you for well considered and thought provoking responses. Gonna' follow this with focused interest. Boiled down concentrate for me thus far is that survival of an attack of a prepared CC individual by street thugs remains high percentage but going up against 1 man or a team of bad guys geared up to hit a "hard target" and surviving, much less prevailing, ain't gonna' happen. Think I'll stay out of banks, Rolex and jewelry stores whenever possible.

[Mr_White]

Boiled down concentrate for me thus far is that survival of an attack of a prepared CC individual by street thugs remains high percentage but going up against 1 man or a team of bad guys geared up to hit a "hard target" and surviving, much less prevailing, ain't gonna' happen.

I don't mean to downplay that some situations may be very difficult and very dire. But don't count yourself out. 'Who Dares, Wins' is a motto for a reason.

[41magfan]

The advantage to being armed and prepared is that you have MORE options than the guy who isn't. In other words, just because you can doesn't mean you should.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

As Pasteur said:

Chance only favours the mind which is prepared

[GK17]

Truth abounds in all 3 of the above responses. Always trying to remain realistic while preparing for worst case scenarios is vital but challenging. IMO the odds of facing one or more assailants with both body armor and heavy firepower are long but the chance of prevailing against one is better for a very well trained and equipped concealed carrier and the numbers get exponentially worse as the team size grows. At this time I'm neither well trained or well equipped but plan on making efforts to improve on that. All of you are my mentors with most every post you make.

[Chuck Haggard]

I recall a friend from SA telling m,e about an off-duty guy that was caught up in a bank robbery involving seven bad guys with AKs, when they started shaking down the customers in addition to robbing the bank he knew he was hosed the second they found his ID, so he pulled his Star PD and declared war. He won that fight.

SGT Alvin York also won his fight under similar odds poor odds.

Just sayin.