The Validity of Security Threat Assessment?

The questions of "How many?" and "How much?" and "What's enough?" are perennial questions in the gun community. Pistol-forum has been asking these sorts of questions by discussing how many bullets are sufficient and how many guns are sufficient. This has made me curious about "Security Threat Assessments."

Should a "Security Threat Assessment" play any part in the discussion?

Can someone even measure the level of "Threat" we daily face? Are "Security Threat Assessments" even valid?

For the sake of argument, let us briefly assume they are valid. How would someone conduct a "Security Threat Assessment?" What rubrics are available? Are there models accessible and applicable to the average Joe on the street?

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Originally Posted by johnemckenzie

The questions of "How many?" and "How much?" and "What's enough?" are perennial questions in the gun community. Pistol-forum has been asking these sorts of questions by discussing how many bullets are sufficient and how many guns are sufficient. This has made me curious about "Security Threat Assessments."

I think a risk assessment is a must for keeping the situational awareness going. Also for properly planning not only your ability to respond to some situations but primarily being able to identify and avoid possible risks (threats, dangers, security concerns, etc).

Should a "Security Threat Assessment" play any part in the discussion?

It would depend on the discussion taking place and the how a risk assessment may or may not take part in the particular discussion.

Can someone even measure the level of "Threat" we daily face? Are "Security Threat Assessments" even valid?

Yes measuring the level of risk is possible, but requires the assessor to have a system of identifying risks, measuring the risk, having a formula to calculate all the identified risks to develop an overall rating for the amount of risk that has been identified. Also you can bring the unidentifiable aspects into your measurement of risk as well, kind of using a system for known risks, possible risks, and for some aspects of unknown risks.

For the sake of argument, let us briefly assume they are valid. How would someone conduct a "Security Threat Assessment?" What rubrics are available? Are there models accessible and applicable to the average Joe on the street?

Now this question can be completely complicated, or it can be completely uncomplicated depending on how deep in the weeds we want to get. Several risk management systems are available to Johnny-Joe-Public; however, in most cases without proper training in their use, most individuals have no clue as to how to properly use a risk assessment or even how to collect the proper data to input into the risk assessment and then how to apply countermeasures into the formula to lower the overall risk in the assessment. So in an effort to use KISS here, I will give you a basic example for carrying a firearm(s).

We will start with developing an overall view of the geographical area and the risks that may be faced within that area (as it relates to self defense with a firearm).

Known Information: This will be the amount of crime, general type of crime and consistency of the crime in the area that you are personally knowledgeable about. As in you see it, you hear it on the news, etc. Example: There have been 3 shootings in the area in the past 30 days, those shootings were during convenient store robberies and involved the shooter, the store clerk and two customers.

Gathered Information: This will be information you gather about the geographical area, internet searches, crime data searches, etc. The idea is to learn about the area you will be going into, things you may not be informed about, or recent events that you have not been informed about yet.
Unknown Information: This is pretty self explanatory, but basically you are trying to develop a list of things that you cannot find information on, or that you are uninformed about, that are important to where you are going, or what you may be doing in that specific area.

Now once we gather the information, identify hot spots and spots that we cannot gather information about, or are otherwise unavailable. We will start to assign a level of risk, the level can be done with a numerical scale (i.e. 1 through 10, with 1 being the lowest risk and 10 being the worst) or in a much simpler format use a color code/level system (i.e. green – amber – red or low – mild – high). Assigning a level of risk is somewhat of a individual process, some will assign more or less risk depending on their background, thoughts and understanding. But for simplicity we will use the following example to get the point across.

Example: We have identified that there have been 3 shootings in the area we will be traveling, all of these shootings have happened in the later evening of the day and all took place at convenient stores. We have also identified that there is a school zone that restricts firearms to 1000 meters away from the school; this school zone is within 500 meters of where I will be. We identified that the business that I will be visiting has had 4 car break-ins within the past week that all took place in the evenings and that the business does allow concealed firearms on the premises. There is gang graphite in the area around the business, but no information available about if there are in fact gangs in the area, or if they are involved with the car break-ins, the shootings, etc.

Convenient Stores (Red)
School Zone (Amber)
Vehicle Break-ins (Red)
Business (Green)
Unknown Gangs (Amber)

Now we need to find ways to reduce the level of risk that has been identified, so we will introduce our countermeasures to each identified risk and reassess our risk after the countermeasures are applied.

Convenient Store: I will make sure my vehicle is fueled up before going into the area; I will have spare anti-freeze or water and a small plug-in air pump in the truck of my car. Assessment is now green b/c I will not be stopping at the store and I have made preparations to avoid reasons that I may need to stop at the store.

School Zone: I can either schedule my business trip after school hours to avoid breaking the law, or I can decide not to carry a firearm during school hours. Assessment remains amber.

Vehicle Break-ins: I will remove all valuable items from view within the vehicle, I will not have any firearms or ammunition in the vehicle and I will plan to make my business trip during the afternoon due to the evening break-ins. Assessment is now amber, as the possibility still exists for the break-in.

Unknown Gangs: If I will be carrying my firearm, I will select one with a higher capacity or carry several reloaders/magazines. I will also chose to conduct my business during the day when it is less likely for gang activity to take place. The assessment remains amber as we do not know for sure if we will being carrying or at what time the possible gang activity may take place is any.

Now that we have identified our risks and assigned counter measures to reduce our risk, we can use the assessment to plan out our trip. With this example, I would choose to not carry do to the school zone laws, and I would plan my trip for mid-day where the risks are least likely.

So as you can see, even though there is activity that would make most people want to carry, based on the legal’s aspects and assessing the times, and possible risks that would require me to possibly defend myself with a firearm. I have chosen to avoid the legal aspects by not carrying and use the time of day as my best defense against the possible risks. I did not eliminate all the risks; I still need to have a heightened level of awareness and avoidance. But the legal issues that I would face being caught with a firearm within the school zone, or worse using the firearm to defend myself during school hours (which brings all new risks of not only legal but civil liabilities) out way the possibility of the identified risk during those school hours.

This is a very basic example, but I hope it paints the picture for you…

good reading. thanks Joseph.

We all engage in numerous risk assessments all the time, we just don't realize it because we don't think about it. Deciding where to shop, what lane to drive in, when to go to the store and so on all include assessment. J. Bell gave a nice overview of a more formal process. But we already do ti all the time with most things that we do in our life. Unfortunately many times we are making the assessments without any real understanding of the real data so we tend to under-estimate or, more commonly, over-estimate the threat.